2022 NFL Passing Props, Odds, and Picks: Chargers’ Justin Herbert Favored to Lead League

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Chargers' quarterback Justin Herbert is a hot pick and the consensus favorite to lead the league in passing yards. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Passing is the unofficial language of the modern NFL, and as several proficient quarterbacks are letting their strong arms do the talking, bettors can turn flying footballs into fun wagering opportunities. 

The 2022 NFL regular season kicks off September 8, and sportsbooks have jumped onto the betting scene by offering an assortment of regular-season passing props. Eager football bettors can wager on a player’s over/under passing totals. Those interested in a more competitive, high-reward type of bet can pick a quarterback to throw for the most passing yards.

Whether you’re wagering on a particular player’s over-under or trying to predict the next passing yards leader, it’s important to understand there are a lot of factors that determine yardage totals. So before finalizing your wagers, consider a few questions: Did the quarterback’s team add or lose any key offensive weapons? Has the quarterback’s passing yards been progressing or regressing in recent years? Is the team more pass- or run-heavy? Does the quarterback often miss games due to injury? 

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We will update this page as we get closer to the opening kickoff.

Passing Leader Odds and Over/Under Passing Yards

Here are odds at three major sportsbooks on quarterbacks to lead the league in regular-season passing yards, along with respective over/under passing yardage totals on FanDuel.

QuarterbackPassing Yards Leader Odds (DraftKings)Passing Yards Leader Odds (BetMGM, Use Code TODAY)Passing Yards Leader Odds (Caesars, Use Code TODAY15)Over/Under Passing Yards (FanDuel)
Justin Herbert+550+850+7504,600.5
Tom Brady+700+800+7004,520.5
Matthew Stafford+900+850+7504,550.5
Patrick Mahomes+900+800+8004,550.5
Joe Burrow+900+900+10004,350.5
Derek Carr+900+1200+10004,350.5
Josh Allen+1000+1200+12004,320.5
Dak Prescott+1200+1200+10004,320.5
Aaron Rodgers+1400+1600+18003,950.5
Russell Wilson+1800+1600+15004,050.5
Deshaun Watson+1800+2000+2000N/A
Kirk Cousins+1800+2000+15004150.5
Matt Ryan+2000+3000+2000N/A
Kyler Murray+2000+3000+20004000.5
Mac Jones+2800+3000+2500N/A
Tua Tagovailoa+2800+2000+4000N/A
Trevor Lawrence+2800+3000+30003800.5
Jameis Winston+2000+3000+40003600.5

Passing Yards Leader Candidates to Consider

Justin Herbert (+850, BetMGM)

Remember that question earlier about whether a quarterback is progressing or regressing? Well, Justin Herbert’s progression has been so grand that it’s placed him in the record books. He totaled 9,350 passing yards in his first two NFL seasons, including 5,014 in his sophomore campaign, which ranks first in passing yards in a quarterback’s first two seasons in NFL history.

Still just 24 years old and having already achieved a 5K-yard season, Herbert’s upward trajectory could allow him to spit out an even greater season in 2022, especially being in the tough AFC West that should feature a ton of yard-producing shootouts.

Patrick Mahomes (+900, DraftKings)

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes – and his cannon of an arm – has thrown for the second, 10th (missed two games), second, and fourth-most yards in his four NFL seasons, but has never led the league.

Entering his fifth season as a starter, the four-time Pro Bowler must now push the ball down the field without track star Tyreek Hill, who took many of Mahomes’ yards to Miami. I’m not too worried about the albeit massive hole “Cheetah” left behind. The Chiefs did their best to fill the gap by bringing in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and don’t forget about Mahomes’ most reliable target and biggest yard-gainer Travis Kelce.

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Mahomes is a magician with the football who, when coupled with a genius offensive mind like Andy Reid, can shred almost any defense for big yardage.

Jameis Winston (+4000, Caesars)

Does Jameis Winston know the difference between his receivers and the defensive backs? Questionable. Does his poor completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio make it seem like he throws with his eyes closed? Sometimes.

Despite his inaccuracy and generous nature to turn the ball over to the other team, does he still manage to throw for a ton of yards? It boggles the mind, but yes. His careless, Hail Mary-style passing has afforded him the highest career yards per completion average (12.6) among all active quarterbacks.

Bettors understand and accept that hazardous ball throwing comes with the territory when backing Famous Jameis, so much so that the Saints’ signal-caller has received 18% of the total betting tickets and 27% of the handle – both the highest among all players – according to Caesars Sportsbook.

The high support stems from the fact that he beat out the entire passing field in 2019, when he threw for 5,109 yards with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Entering his third year in New Orleans, he has a plethora of pass-catching talent at his disposal, including Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and rookie Chris Olave.

I don’t favor longshots when it comes to betting on the passing leader (you’ll understand why as you keep reading), but if you place sports bets the same way Winston likes to pass – Hail Mary style – then Winston is one you should consider.

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Key Trends From Past Passing Yards Leaders

The top ‘skin-slinger each year must put up monstrous yardage totals game in and game out, but availability is as important as productivity. There have been 23 passing yards leaders in the past 22 seasons (two players tied in 2014), and 22 of them played a full schedule. Make sure to research players’ yearly games played and lean towards players who always suit up. 

Betting on the passing yards leader is a solid option if you’re seeking plus-money odds, but don’t get carried away with extreme long-shots because they almost never beat out the entire quarterback field. 

Of the past 13 leaders, 11 have had preseason odds between +200 and +1000, with the average winner’s odds being +652, per SportsOddsHistory. For reference, only seven quarterbacks this season have odds priced at +1000 or shorter on DraftKings. Expect the eventual winner to be among the early top betting contenders.

Best Bets for Over/Under Passing Totals

Patrick Mahomes Over 4,550.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)

Exceeding 4,500 total passing yards is child’s play for a gifted gunslinger like Mahomes, given that he’s topped 4,700 passing yards in three of his four starting seasons. If we narrow his numbers to a per-game or per-throw basis, he’s even better. He has the highest career passing yards per game average (301.4) by a considerable margin – next highest is Drew Brees with 280 – and the second-highest career yards per attempt average in the Super Bowl era (8.1).

The notion that Mahomes won’t be as productive without speedster Hill can be debunked by looking at a particular four-game stretch. In four straight contests during the 2019 season that Hill missed due to a shoulder injury, the former MVP threw for 363.3 passing yards per game on just below 9.0 yards per attempt, along with eight touchdowns and zero picks.

Dak Prescott Over 4,320.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)

Dak Prescott started his NFL career as a game manager in his first three seasons but he’s transformed into a game-changer in his last three seasons. He finished with 4,902 passing yards in 2019, was on pace for nearly 6,000 yards in 2020 – before his season-ending leg injury – and accumulated 4,449 yards in 2021.

Amari Cooper – the receiver who helped put Prescott on the map – is now on the Cleveland Browns, but CeeDee Lamb, deep threat Michael Gallup, and viable tight end Dalton Schultz are still in town.

Aaron Rodgers Under 3,950.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)

Aaron Rodgers enters his 18th NFL season with arguably the worst receiving corps of his career, and his stats will reflect that. The elite Packers quarterback flung the football for 4,115 yards last season. That was with his number one and two receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling still in Green Bay. The duo combined for 1,983 yards and accounted for 48.2% of Rodgers’ passing yards.

The two wideouts (and virtually half of Rodgers’ yards) have been shipped elsewhere, leaving the two-time reigning MVP with injury-prone Sammy Watkins, perennial third- and fourth-stringer Allen Lazard, and 32-year-old Randall Cobb – the man who has posted one 1,000-yard season all the way back in 2014 – as his top three wide receivers.

Derek Carr Over 4,350.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)

Derek Carr exploded for a career-high 4,804 passing yards last season, good enough for the fifth-most in the league. Insert Davante Adams into a locker room that already features Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, and you now give Carr a floor that’s higher than many quarterbacks’ ceilings. He figures to shatter his 4,350.5 over/under and even contend for the lead in passing yards.

FAQ

Who is the favorite to lead the league in passing yards this upcoming season?

Justin Herbert is the consensus betting favorite to throw for the most regular season passing yards in the 2022-23 season, with odds as short as +550 on DraftKings.

Who led the league in passing yards last season?

Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady led the league in regular season passing yards with 5,316 – 302 yards clear of Justin Herbert with the second most.

When can I place bets on passing props?

You can place bets on passing props starting today until the end of the regular season. FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are the only top sportsbooks that have already started offering individual passing props, but more sportsbooks will soon follow in the next few weeks.

About the Author
Cyrus Eshaghoff

Cyrus Eshaghoff

Sports Betting Writer
Cyrus Eshaghoff is a New York-based sports writer. Whether it's heated debates or uncovering statistical insights, he loves discussing sports. Check out his Twitter account (@CyrusEshaghoff).

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