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The early FIFA World Cup 2026 odds are in, and the landscape for World Cup betting is already shifting as bettors look for early value. Which teams have been priced too short? Which markets offer the best value? Let’s delve into our overrated and underrated teams for this year’s competition.
Overrated teams at the 2026 World Cup
England
Let’s start by being honest: I’m English. As an England fan, I’ve endured years of frustration when it comes to my national team, which has led to me becoming one of the most pessimistic supporters out there. I shall try not to let this pain sway my judgment.
England is among the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup. In fact, at the time of writing, DraftKings has England as the third favorite, behind Spain and France. Truthfully, England has a long way to go before it wins a World Cup. The simple fact is that when the Three Lions face an opponent of genuine quality, they struggle.
Their World Cup qualifying campaign flatters to deceive. Winning eight of eight matches while scoring 22 goals and conceding none sounds like an incredible feat. However, UEFA Group K featured Albania, Serbia, Latvia, and Andorra—and with all due respect to those nations, they are hardly world-beaters.
Look at the 2022 World Cup: England breezed through the group stage and comfortably beat Senegal in the round of 16, but was knocked out in the quarterfinals by France—the first side of genuine quality it faced.
In 2018, England had another easy group, though it was defeated by Belgium. It beat Colombia and Sweden on the way to the semifinals. However, up against Croatia, a top-quality side, England came up short once again. It’s the same old story: England does just enough to beat most teams, but against the elite? Forget it.
Brazil
Many sportsbooks put Brazil as the fourth favorite to win the 2026 World Cup. This must be based on name alone, as Brazil is a shadow of the side it once was. Yes, it has a reasonably easy group (though I believe Morocco will win Group C), so progressing to the knockout stages shouldn’t be a problem.
However, like England, when Brazil has faced tough competition, it has fallen short. In 2022, Croatia knocked the Brazilians out at the quarterfinal stage; in 2018, Belgium turned them over at the same stage. We don’t see this Brazil side progressing any further.
As for winning Group C, there is absolutely no value in betting on Brazil to take the top spot. Many sportsbooks have priced the Brazilians at -600 to win the group—leave this bet well alone.
South Korea
While very few bettors expect South Korea to repeat the success of 2002, when it reached the semifinals, some think Heung-min Son and company might have a chance of progressing to the knockout rounds. I’m not one of them. I think it will be extremely difficult for the team to even qualify from Group A, with Mexico and the Czech Republic being my choices for the top two places.
Potentially, third place might be enough to sneak through, but we doubt whether even the majesty of Son will be enough for South Korea to progress further.
Underrated teams at the 2026 World Cup
Germany
This choice might cause quite a stir among soccer fans. Incredibly inconsistent and knocked out in the group stage of the previous two tournaments, Germany may be a surprising inclusion here. However, if—and admittedly it’s a big “if”—Julian Nagelsmann’s side can find consistency, I think they’re a great shout to do well.
Most sportsbooks have priced Germany at around +1400 to win the 2026 edition, which are fantastic odds. It’s a big ask, but if the Germans get off to a good start, they have a chance of laying some of those past tournament demons to rest.
Norway
Let’s be honest: Any side with Erling Haaland is likely to perform well. The Manchester City striker scored 16 goals in eight games during qualifying, double the number of any other player in the UEFA qualifying groups. If Haaland does well, Norway will do well.
The team is priced at around +2800 to win the 2026 World Cup. Do I think they’ll win it? Well, no. However, odds of +550 to reach the semifinals and +260 to reach the quarterfinals are worth considering.
Japan
Current EAFF E-1 Football champions Japan is one of the teams to look out for in this World Cup. In great form and boasting some incredibly technically gifted players, Japan can cause quite a stir in the competition. It is likely to be a straight race between Japan and the Netherlands for the top spot in Group F, and we expect Japan to breeze through the group regardless.
Looking at early World Cup odds, Japan is priced at +400 to reach the quarterfinal stage. That is certainly worth considering in my book.
