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Arizona officials continue responding to the rapid growth of prediction markets, with Maricopa County becoming the latest government entity to adopt rules aimed at preventing public employees from profiting from confidential information.
The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors unanimously approved a policy prohibiting the county’s roughly 13,000 employees from using nonpublic information for personal gain through prediction markets.
The move followed Gov. Katie Hobbs‘ executive order imposing similar restrictions on executive branch employees and has since been echoed by Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, whose office announced its own policy for election staff.
Rather than attempting to prohibit prediction markets outright, Arizona officials are increasingly focusing on ethics rules designed to preserve public confidence in government.
Officials emphasize prediction market ethics over new restrictions
Maricopa County Supervisor Thomas Galvin said the goal is to eliminate any perception that election workers or other public employees could profit from information unavailable to the public.
“We don’t want any of our election workers, staffers, volunteers being accused of placing any bets with election outcomes hanging in the balance,” Galvin said.
Although elections prompted the discussion, county leaders said the policy extends well beyond voting. Employees across county government could have advance knowledge of court proceedings, administrative decisions or other developments that might affect prediction market contracts.
The Maricopa County Recorder’s Office also confirmed its employees will follow the policy.
Ethics policies spread across Arizona government
Maricopa County’s decision reflects how quickly prediction markets have entered mainstream political discussion.
Platforms such as Kalshi now offer contracts tied to elections, sports, entertainment, economic indicators, cryptocurrencies, and world events. As those markets expand, governments are increasingly examining how public employees should interact with them.
County officials said Kalshi listed nine markets tied to Arizona’s primary election with more than $580,000 in trading volume, underscoring the growing public interest in election forecasting.
Since the county approved its policy, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has announced similar restrictions covering employees in his office, signaling that ethics standards are spreading across Arizona government rather than remaining isolated initiatives, Arizona’s Family reported.
Legal uncertainty persists for prediction markets
The ethics measures arrive while Arizona remains embroiled in litigation over prediction markets.
Earlier this year, Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal charges against Kalshi, alleging the company operated an illegal gambling and election wagering business in Arizona.
According to news by Arizona’s Family, a federal judge later paused the case while higher courts consider whether federally regulated event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act or state gambling laws.
That jurisdictional dispute remains one of the industry’s defining legal questions. Meanwhile, Arizona officials are increasingly separating the legal debate from government ethics by adopting policies that regulate employee conduct regardless of how the courts ultimately rule.
Government policies evolve before courts decide
Maricopa County’s action illustrates an emerging trend that extends beyond Arizona. Governments appear increasingly willing to establish internal ethics rules before courts resolve whether prediction markets are commodities, gambling products or something in between.
That distinction matters. Instead of attempting to prohibit residents from participating in prediction markets, Arizona officials are focusing on preventing public employees from using confidential information for financial gain—a narrower objective that is less dependent on the outcome of ongoing litigation.
With Gov. Hobbs, Maricopa County and now the Secretary of State’s Office all adopting similar standards, Arizona is building a layered ethics framework around prediction markets even as the broader regulatory landscape remains unsettled.
If the industry continues expanding into politics, economics and other real-world events, comparable policies are likely to become increasingly common among state and local governments.
