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The prediction market industry is exploding, but a new poll shows most Americans view platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as gambling outlets rather than legitimate investment tools.
Public sentiment: Gambling vs. investing
Event contracts allowing users to trade on the removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro have cast a spotlight on the industry—and the public has formed an opinion.
According to a recent poll by The American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) and Ipsos, Americans consider purchasing event contracts more akin to gambling than investing by a lopsided 61% to 8% margin. For an industry that has positioned itself alongside stock day trading, those figures represent a significant branding hurdle.
The poll also found that 91% of Americans and 88% of young men view prediction markets as a risk to their finances, categorizing them similarly to cryptocurrency and sports betting.
Americans support prediction market regulation
A major piece of the regulatory puzzle involves the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that oversees derivatives. This creates a jurisdictional tension: Prediction markets fall under federal oversight, whereas gambling is traditionally regulated at the state level.
The AIBM/Ipsos poll showed that 59% of respondents support regulating prediction markets like sports gambling platforms. Perhaps most tellingly, just 4% of Americans believe prediction markets are “good for society.”
Regulatory shifts and the ANPR
The CFTC has long taken a defensive posture regarding its authority over these markets, but the backlash over recent global event contracts appears to have spurred action. The agency recently published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR), soliciting public comment on industry regulations.
This move marks a clear shift for the agency, which seeks to maintain its jurisdiction while acknowledging the turn in public sentiment. As the industry moves at a rapid pace, the scrutiny following recent global events has hastened the push for tighter guardrails.
