Bills vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds, Props: Which Team Will Win the AFC East?

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By the time the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins square off in their Week 18 Sunday night showdown, most NFL teams will know their postseason fates. However, Bills vs. Dolphins will still have playoff implications — especially for the AFC East. Can Josh Allen lead his squad to a win and a No. 2 playoff seed or will Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins claim it?

The Bills are currently 3-point favorites at the Fins for the final game of the 2023 NFL regular season. Buffalo is riding the wave of a four-game winning streak and moved from being a team that was on the outside looking in just a few weeks ago to now having an 86% chance to make the playoffs. The Dolphins have lost two of their last four but at 11-5 straight up (SU), they have already clinched their playoff berth.

Here are our Bills vs Dolphins prediction, odds, and props.

 

Also read: NFL MVP odds | Super Bowl 58 MVP odds | Super Bowl 58 odds

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NFL Week 18 Odds: Bills vs. Dolphins Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are the best available NFL odds for moneyline, spread, and point totals across the top sports betting apps. Click on the odds you would like to place a wager on and learn more about sports betting promos when signing up to receive bonus bets.

Spread: Bills ; Dolphins
Moneyline: Bills ; Dolphins
Over/Under: points scored by both teams combined

Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • Bills are 10-6 SU this season and 6-10 against the spread (ATS)
  • Dolphins are 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS
  • Six of Buffalo’s games have hit the Over this season, 10 have hit the Under
  • Miami’s Over/Under record is 9-7
  • Bills quarterback Josh Allen has passed for 3,947 yards (seventh in the NFL), 27 touchdowns (tied for seventh), and has thrown 16 interceptions
  • Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has passed for 4,451 yards (first in the NFL), 28 TDs (tied for fourth), and has thrown 12 interceptions in 2023
  • The Bills are 2-6 ATS as the away team in 2023
  • Miami is 6-2 ATS at home this season

Bills vs. Dolphins Props

 

Live props are available in the above game tiles, and prices for the first half at FanDuel Sportsbook are below:

1st Half (FanDuel)

Bills -1.5 (-110); Moneyline -146
Dolphins +1.5 (-110); Moneyline +120

Bills vs. Dolphins Analysis

The beginning of the Dolphins’ 2023 campaign was highlighted by an impressive 70-20 victory over the Broncos in Week 3. They followed that win up with a 48-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the foe they face in Week 18. However, by every measure, Miami is having a wildly successful season.

At DraftKings, the Fins have the seventh-best Super Bowl futures at +1300 (Best Live Odds: ), and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is second on the oddsboard at +175 (Best Live Odds: ) to win Offensive Player of the Year. Miami leads the league with the most points per game, averaging 30.1 per contest. But the defense is a different story.

Dolphins give up 23.1 points a game, which ranks 21st in the NFL. And that could be an issue for the team from South Florida when they host the Bills on Sunday Night Football.

Miami is facing a Buffalo offense that scores 26.9 points per matchup, which is tied for fifth in the league. Over the past five games, Josh Allen has passed for 1,072 yards. This game will be one in which Allen’s heroics and athleticism must be fully activated if Buffalo hopes to secure the No. 2 seed.

An even more challenging player for Miami’s defense to contain than Allen will be Buffalo running back James Cook. Cook’s 1,086 yards on the year rank third of all NFL backs and Buffalo ranks seventh in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game. In Miami’s Week 17 loss to the Ravens, the Dolphins’ defense gave up 160 yards on the ground.

Additionally, the Bills — whose odds to win the AFC East are -160 (Best Live Odds: ) ahead of Miami at +135 (Best Live Odds: ) — have just a little more at stake than the Dolphins. Yes, they have an 86% chance of making the playoffs, so they’re essentially “in,” but there’s always that outlier, doomsday scenario that could leave the Bills out of the postseason entirely.

Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction

With that in mind, we’re backing Buffalo to win and cover. Two of Buffalo’s recent wins came over playoff-bound Kansas City and Dallas. In those matchups, they clicked on all cylinders against truly competitive teams. They will do it again in Sunday night’s regular-season finale.

Prediction: Bills moneyline (-164 at FanDuel), Under 49.5 points scored by both teams combined (-110 at FanDuel)

How to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 7, 2024
  • Game Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Channel: NBC

Read more: Odds to make 2024 NFL Playoffs | NFL betting sites | NFL betting promos

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About the Author
Erica Renee Davis

Erica Renee Davis

Erica Renee Davis is a sports betting writer with Gaming Today. She graduated from the University of Georgia with degrees in journalism and political science. After cheering as an NFL cheerleader for the Atlanta Falcons, Erica moved to Los Angeles where she became the host of Kevin Pollak's This Week In Football digital show. Since then, she has appeared as an on-air host and sports commentator for FOX Bet, Spectrum News 1 SoCal, CNN, HLN, and TEGNA's Daily Blast Live. Erica is a die-hard Georgia Dawg and a hopelessly devoted Clippers fan.

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