When Brock Purdy got drafted with the last overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, very few bettors would have wagered that Mr. Irrelevant would end up being a key piece to the San Francisco 49ers’ success. After all, he was in the quarterback room with Trey Lance — the 2021 No. 3 overall draft pick.
However, Purdy’s ascent from bench to (possible) MVP proves that sometimes it’s wise to consider even the longest odds when filling out those betslips.
With that in mind, let’s look at how the odds for the second-year QB out of Iowa State to win league MVP have moved this season.
Ahead of him on the oddsboard at that time were the usual suspects: Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, to name a few.
Hurts was coming off his first Super Bowl appearance, Mahomes had just claimed his second MVP trophy, and Burrow was expected to have a productive, healthy season.
Purdy was coming off elbow surgery from a UCL injury he suffered in the 2022 NFC Championship game. The surgery — combined with the fact that many bettors thought Lance could still be named the starter — had Brock’s odds sitting at +2500.
Niners Hot, Niners Cold
San Francisco ultimately shipped Lance to the Cowboys, making Purdy QB1. Then San Francisco went on a roll.
The Niners opened the season with five-straight wins, and fans and bettors began to raise their brows at Brock. His odds to win MVP shortened to +700 at DraftKings after his squad’s stellar 5-0 start to the season.
Then the 49ers went on a three-game losing streak.
Depleted with injuries, they were missing players like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Additionally, analysts started questioning Purdy’s decision-making. Some reporters even described Purdy as being “ordinary.”
His odds lengthened to +2200 after that three-game skid from Weeks 6 through 8.
Bye and They’re Back
Since San Fran’s Week 9 bye, it’s been all systems go for Purdy & Co. They’ve won five consecutive contests, including a convincing 34-3 victory over the Jaguars and a 42-19 statement win over the Eagles.
So far this season, the QB has passed for 3,553 yards (third in the NFL) and has thrown 25 touchdowns (tied for second).
Brock Purdy on Top
Now, in NFL Week 15, Brock Purdy’s odds to win MVP at FanDuel are +150 (Best Live Odds: ) — tied at the very top of the oddsboard with Dallas’ Dak Prescott.
A $100 bet on Purdy +150 would win you a total of $250 if he claims the MVP. But if you’re a bettor who bought into Brock before the season, a $100 bet on Purdy +3000 would win you a total of $3,100.
Left on the Niners’ regular season calendar are matchups against the Cardinals, Ravens, Commanders, and Rams. Based on how spectacularly SF has played recently, those could all end up being wins.
So if you’re a bettor with a Brock Purdy MVP ticket in your hand, this could very well be your lucky year.