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Hopes have been high for the Indianapolis Colts throughout the offseason, thanks to the Carson Wentz trade. Assuming the former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback can find his groove again after reuniting with Frank Reich, many sportsbooks viewed the Colts as potential contenders.
But that was also with the assumption that he could remain healthy—which we now know will not happen.
While making a routine throw during an early training camp practice, Wentz felt a twinge in his foot. As luck would have it, a broken bone had come loose in his foot. After initially deciding to give rest a try, the team and Wentz opted for surgery to remove the bone. That way the team could rest assured the injury would not become a reoccurring one.
The team estimates rehab/recovery from the surgery to take 5-12 weeks (which sounds much better than 1-3 months).
Luckily, with the timing of the injury, that could mean he misses no time. But he could also miss as much as half of the season. Should he miss time during the regular season, the team will have to go with an inexperienced quarterback. The options are not too encouraging– Jacob Eason, Jalen Morton, Brett Hundley, or rookie Sam Ehlinger.
It is safe to say that the Colts did not have a Plan B in place in case Carson Wentz went down with an injury. That stark realization makes them a questionable bet. But that does not necessarily mean the Colts have become a bad bet. If you are the optimistic type, betting on the Colts may have a lot of value now.
From Inside Training Camp Live: #Colts QB Carson Wentz is expected to miss the rest of the preseason and faces the prospect of foot surgery, sources say. He’s hoping to play through it, but surgery to repair would likely mean he’s on the sidelines when the season starts. pic.twitter.com/Z5GhLiW2Cg
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 30, 2021
The Injury To Carson Wentz Could Be Good For Bettors
Since the team announced Wentz was having surgery, their odds to win the AFC South, the AFC, and the Super Bowl have gotten longer (via DraftKings):
- AFC South: from +115 to +180
- AFC: from +1400 to +2000
- Super Bowl: from +2800 to +4500
The division race was already going to be tight with the Tennessee Titans (now favored at -120). As for their conference odds, they were good. But without Wentz, they dropped down quite a bit (tied for ninth-best with the Denver Broncos).
As for the Super Bowl, they have gone from having good odds to the middle of the pack. Their odds are now tied for 16th best with the Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Steelers. By all appearances, betting on the Colts to win the Super Bowl or the AFC is not a good idea. Things are not looking good for the AFC South, either.
It certainly does not help that they are now losing a member of their stellar offensive line to the same injury, Quenton Nelson. But the injury news does not mean betting on the Colts is without value. There may be more value in the Colts now than there was before.
The Colts were not going to ride or die with Wentz before the injury. They were going to feature the run game behind their stellar offensive line. That, and let the defense keep things from getting out of hand. As long as whoever plays quarterback can do enough to keep it close, they will have a chance.
It is hard to say if Eason, Hundley, Morton, or Ehlinger are up to the task. But it would be unfair to say one of them is not. Then there is the chance the Colts trade for a veteran like Nick Foles—who also played his best football under Frank Reich.
But the Colts have no plans at the moment to trade for Foles or anyone else.
However, should the recovery timetable result in little or no missed time, the Colts become an even better bet than before. Their chances of winning will be about the same, but the payout will be much more substantial.
A fired up Nick Foles talks about Frank Reich, Carson Wentz, what he wants in a trade, and more.
Foles: "The version of me right now is much better than the version that played in the Super Bowl … Put that through your mind."
This is worth the watch…pic.twitter.com/zVpsluax2l
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 2, 2021
Sports Betting Recommendation
Winning the AFC South was going to be dependent on the workload from the last two seasons finally takes a toll on Derrick Henry. So, despite the better payout, the Colts are not an advisable bet to win the AFC South. However, as for the AFC and Super Bowl, it may be worth putting a few bucks down on the Colts.
The run game and defense will be good enough to keep the Colts competitive. It is not hard to see them contending for a postseason slot. If Wentz can hit his stride in the playoffs, the Colts could be the team no one wants to play. The operative word is, of course, ‘could.’
That is why you only put a few bucks down; skip your morning latte for a week. But do not risk more than that.
