CFP National Championship Odds: Alabama Favored, But Tide Won’t Roll

With the start of the 2022-23 college football season coming soon, it’s time to review the latest CFP National Championship odds. It should come as no surprise that Alabama sits atop betting boards with odds ranging from +175 to +190. No team has maintained a consistent level of excellence quite like Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide.

At those odds, the Tide have an implied probability ranging from 34.48 to 36.36% to win it all. If history is any indication, though, it may be wise to look for betting value on a team other than Alabama this season.

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College Football National Championship Odds

Odds are current as of August 4:

Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia lost several key players from last season’s squads to the NFL. For many teams, that would mean a dropoff the following year. But all three programs have proven over the years that they’ll have talented players in the wings waiting for an opportunity to play.

Like most teams, they may need a couple of weeks to work out the kinks and get everyone on the same page. But history has shown that all three belong right where they are as the season gets underway — at the top of CFP National Championship betting boards.

However, there are a few teams that could pose a threat to college football’s Big Three.

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NCAAF Futures for National Championship Contenders

Texas A&M (+2500)

Any hope Texas A&M has centers on the best recruiting class of all time living up to its billing. If the Aggies’ prized freshman can live up to their reputations, Texas A&M has an outside shot at turning into a contender. We’ll find out more when they face Alabama in early October.

USC (+2500)

The Trojans are getting national championship attention because of new coach Lincoln Riley and three stellar transfers — Caleb Williams, Travis Dye, and Jordan Addison. Riley did get the Sooners to the playoffs in his first season in Norman, but he inherited a much better team from Bob Stoops than he’s getting from Clay Helton/Donte Williams.

Clemson (+1200)

Dabo Swinney has one of the best track records in the country. There is something to be said for a program that has won 10+ games for 11 consecutive seasons and made the playoffs in six of the CFP’s eight seasons (2015-20). Of course, the Tigers could end up being another good but not great team again this season. But Swinney knows what he is doing.

The Tigers belong in the conversation until they prove otherwise.

CFP Sleeper Picks

Notre Dame (+5000)

It’s hard for a team not to take a step back after losing a successful head coach like Brian Kelly. But Notre Dame thinks they have someone that can keep the program moving forward in Marcus Freeman. But their title hopes may die in Week 1 when they face Ohio State.

Oklahoma (+5000)

Like Notre Dame, the Sooners are in a great position this season despite personnel losses. Why? Because they hired one of the best defensive coordinators in the country to be the new head coach, Brent Venables. However, with an unimpressive schedule, they’ll need to score some serious style points while going undefeated to make the playoffs.

Texas (+5000)

On paper, the Longhorns look like a team with a ton of potential — but that was the case last year, too (and that sure didn’t work out). But if Quinn Ewers can live up to his reputation and Steve Sarkisian can make the offense click as well as his Alabama units performed, the Longhorns could become as good as they think they are.

CFP Betting Longshots

Michigan (+5000)

Everything finally came together for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines last year, but they have several key players to replace on the defensive side of the ball. If they can do that effectively, and the offense improves, then they may contend once again. But, like last year, the key will be beating Ohio State in the regular-season finale.

Arkansas (+15000)

A dark horse can’t get much darker than the Razorbacks. But Sam Pittman has done a stellar job with a team that does not feature a lot of superstar recruits like other SEC teams. KJ Jefferson may be the best quarterback no one is talking about. A breakout season from him combined with a better defense could turn Arkansas into a team to watch.

CFP Picks and Betting Strategy

There is no need to worry about getting your money down this early on one of the elite teams. Alabama’s odds did not vary much throughout the season and in fact, grew longer after Week 10 and beyond. Georgia’s odds were north of even-money until Week 11. Chances are good the odds on the top teams will not vary greatly throughout the season (unless they lose two games).

For now, consider taking a flyer on Texas A&M at +2500 (via DraftKings, Caesars, or PointsBet) and Oklahoma at +5000 (via PointsBet). A number of things have to go right for both, but if they do, both have the potential to win it all.

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College Football National Championship Odds History

Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com:

While it’s tempting to bet on the favorite, Alabama, to win it all, history suggests taking a different strategy. Since 2001, only two preseason favorites have gone on to win the national championship (Alabama in 2017 and USC in 2004). Still, more often than not, the eventual champion was a team viewed as a potential contender before the season got started.

During the CFP era, the team winning it all had odds of +700 or shorter prior to Week 1 in six out of eight times. But that does not mean there is no chance a contender will emerge from nowhere. LSU certainly did in 2019-20, and Ohio State was an unexpected champ in 2014-15. Since 2001, the eventual champ had +1000 odds or higher eight times.

However, it may be wishful thinking to bet on someone with odds longer than +5000. No champ since 2001 started the season with odds longer than 50-1.

Additional College Football Betting Odds

There is more to betting on college football than the national championship. We’ll be covering more markets soon, but have already covered several:

• Big Ten Odds: Can Michigan run it back, or will Ohio State climb back on top?
• Pac-12 Odds: USC was not very good last season, but the Trojans are the betting favorite heading into the 2022 season.
• ACC Odds: Clemson failed to keep their conference title win streak going last year; will they start a new one this year?
• Heisman Trophy Odds: It is not hard to understand why anyone might bet on the favorite, CJ Stroud. However, preseason favorites seldom go on to win.
• CFB Win Totals: There is little room for error regarding win totals for several teams.
• Ready to bet on games? We’ve got you covered for Week 1.

College Football Betting 101

Are you a new better that needs help making sense of the wide world of sports betting? That’s understandable—it can be pretty daunting. Which sportsbook app should you use? Is this welcome bonus better than that one? What is implied probability?

You can find answers to these questions and more on some of the following pages:

• Is sports betting legal in your state?
• If so, any there restrictions regarding college sports?
• It may seem cut and dry, but after you make a mistake, you’ll wish you had read up on how to place a bet.
• Some sports betting apps are better than others.
• Make sure you take advantage of the welcome bonus for your sportsbook when you sign up.
• Every bettor needs to understand what line shopping is.
• Need some help understanding the odds? Or why they change?
• It helps to know what implied probability is and how to calculate it.
• Our Tools page contains a lot of helpful information about several things.

CFP National Championship Odds — FAQs