With the 2022 World Cup in Qatar less than a week away, it’s time to follow up our USMNT breakdown with a look at the odds for USA’s CONCACAF rivals: Manager Tata Martino’s Mexico side.
Mexico, which finished tied with Canada — and just ahead of the US — in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, has similar odds to the USMNT. Mexico’s World Cup odds are as short as +9000 on FanDuel and as long as +15000 on BetRivers to lift the Cup on Dec. 18.
Mexico’s World Cup Futures Odds
Here are Mexico’s odds to win the World Cup from top sports betting apps as of Nov. 14, 2022.
|Mexico World Cup odds||+13000||+10000||+15000||+9000||+10000|
Numbers for all 32 teams: 2022 World Cup odds
The Mexican squad is anchored by veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa. The roster’s other stars include forwards Hirving Lozano of Napoli and Raul Jimenez of EPL side Wolverhampton Wanderers. The status of the 31-year-old Jimenez will be worth monitoring closely, as he has played in just four games for the Wolves this season due to a groin injury.
In the midfield, Mexico features a couple of veterans of top European sides. In addition to Hector Herrera (now with the Houston Dynamo after his stint with Atletico Madrid), Mexico’s seasoned midfielders include Andres Guardado (Real Betis) and Edson Alvarez (Ajax).
Mexico officially announce their 2022 World Squad led by Serie A star Chucky Lozano. 🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/1XlCkV0V9s
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 14, 2022
Analysis of Mexico’s World Cup Odds
Mexico has every reason to like its chances to advance from Group C, which also features Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Poland. But Martino’s team feels like a massive long shot to raise the trophy, hence most bookmakers giving them odds of 1oo-to-1 or longer.
Mexico Odds to Win Group C
Argentina is the heavy favorite (-250 on DraftKings) to win Group C. After that, DraftKings sees Mexico (+450) and Poland (+400) as Argentina’s competition in that group. Saudi Arabia (+2200 to win Group C on DraftKings) is the heavy underdog.
|Mexico Odds to Win Group C||+450||+450||+450||+490|
Mexico Odds to Advance From Group C
Mexico and Poland both have about a 50% chance to go through based on their futures odds to advance. On FanDuel, Mexico is -120 and Poland is -125 to advance, while Caesars has Mexico as the clear favorite (-135) ahead of Poland (+100).
|Mexico Odds to Advance From Group C||-120||-135||-139||-120|
When it comes to Poland, the first name that comes to mind — and rightfully so — is Robert Lewandowski, who scored nine goals in Poland’s nine World Cup qualifying matches. Few players in the world are better at finishing scoring opportunities, and Lewandowski has remained prolific since moving from Bayern Munich to Barcelona over the summer. He alone gives Poland a fighting chance in every game they play. His national team’s track record, however, proves that one great player is not enough to make a run in a Euro — much less a World Cup.
At Euro 2020 (which took place last summer due to the pandemic), Poland failed to advance from group play, mustering just a draw and two losses to finish last in Group E behind not only Spain and Sweden but also Slovakia. Poland suffered the early elimination despite Lewandowski scoring three goals in their final two games of group play.
At the 2018 World Cup, Poland finished last in Group H — behind Colombia, Japan, and Senegal.
If Mexico is at its best, it should be able to finish behind Argentina in second place in Group C in Qatar. But Mexico’s performances against Canada and the US in qualifying (drew both teams once and lost to them once) were concerning.
The other reason Martino has been on the hot seat is that prior to WC qualifying last fall, Mexico lost to the USMNT in the finals of both the Gold Cup (Aug. 1, 2021) and the CONCACAF Nations League (June 6, 2021).
Which stars will shine? Odds to win 2022 Golden Boot
Mexico World Cup Qualifying Results Against Canada, USA
- Oct. 7, 2021: 1-1 draw against Canada
- Nov. 12, 2021: 2-0 loss to USA
- Nov. 16, 2021: 2-1 loss to Canada
- March 24, 2022: 0-0 draw against USA
Mexico’s World Cup Game Betting Lines
Here are the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on Mexico’s three Group C matches:
- Tuesday, Nov. 22: Mexico (+170) vs. Poland (+180); Draw (+210)
- Saturday, Nov. 26: Mexico (+500) vs. Argentina (-180); Draw (+295)
- Wednesday, Nov. 30: Mexico (-165) vs. Saudi Arabia (+450); Draw (+280)
Mexico World Cup FAQ
Online sportsbooks such as BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, and PointsBet are licensed operators in several states across the US. We recommend all of them as top options for betting on the World Cup. The strength of their sports betting apps relative to other options on the market put them in a class by themselves.
Mexico finished with as many points as first-place Canada after earning 28 of 42 possible points in the eight-team CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers. El Tri finished second in the table due to the tiebreaker. Mexico’s record in qualifying was 8-4-2 with 17 goals and eight goals allowed. El Tri’s top scorer in qualifying was Jimenez, who had three goals (all via PKs).
El Tri have participated in every World Cup since 1994, advancing from group play in each of those years. Entering the 2022 World Cup with that lengthy streak of advancing to knockout play, Mexico will expect to finish in at least second place in Group C.
While Mexico has successfully navigated group play as well as any team in recent history, they have not managed to win a game in the knockout rounds since 1986 when they reached the quarterfinals.