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The NBA season is advancing to a conclusion. Before the playoffs start, we’ll be treated to the NBA Play-In Tournament, which has established itself as a unique spectacle in major team sports. Eight teams, four in each conference, will compete for the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds in a format where one loss could mean the sudden end to playoff hopes.
Betting on the NBA can be challenging (but fun) in the regular season. Wagering on pro basketball’s play-in tournament is thrilling too, but there are special considerations the sharp bettor should keep in mind as they look at the three-game tournament in each conference this spring. Here are our NBA Play-In Tournament betting tips and strategies.
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NBA Play-In Tournament History
The genesis of the Play-In concept was the “bubble” used during the 2019-20 NBA season due to COVID. Because teams were playing far fewer games than the normal 82-game schedule, the league decided that a play-in game would be used if there was a tight gap between the No. 8 seed in either conference and the next team in the standings.
The margin was set for at least 4 games. In the Eastern Conference, this was not necessary, but in the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies were one game apart. As a result, the Grizzlies played and defeated Portland in the first-ever play-in game. The 2019-20 season was the only time the single-game play-in was used based on standings.
The following year, the NBA adopted a format based on the Page-McIntyre system. It requires three games to determine two playoff spots. In this case, the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds in each conference are decided by the play-in format. The system was first used for the 2020-21 season and has remained unchanged.
NBA Play-In Tournament Previous Results
Four teams that have won at least 44 games have appeared in the play-in tournament, and three have advanced. That’s the most games a team has won in the regular season and still been forced to earn an NBA Playoff spot in the play-in tourney.
NBA Play-In Tournament Trends
These seeding trends are for the three seasons (2021-23) when the league has used the current format.
- The highest seed (No. 7) is 6-1.
- The lowest seed (No. 10) is 2-6 and has never advanced to the NBA Playoffs.
- The No. 8 seed is 3-8 and has only defeated the No. 7 once in the automatic play-in game. The No. 8 seed has advanced to the NBA Playoffs three times and failed to do so three times.
- The No. 9 seed is 7-3, advancing three times and failing to advance three times.
NBA Play-In Tournament: Teams with Best Record
- Atlanta is 3-0 in the play-in tournament, and the Lakers are 2-0, the only teams to play multiple games and be undefeated.
- Of the 7 teams to appear in the NBA Play-In Tournament more than once, only Charlotte and San Antonio are winless (0-2).
- Three teams (Atlanta, Lakers, and Minnesota) have advanced two times out of the play-in tourney.
- The 2021-22 New Orleans Pelicans (36-46) have the worst record for a team that advanced out of the play-in tournament.
- Three teams with losing records have emerged from the NBA Play-In Tournament to make the playoffs: Bulls in 2023; Pelicans in 2022; and Wizards in 2021.
NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Tips and Strategies
Ride the No. 7 Seed
So far, the No. 7 seed has never failed to advance to the NBA Playoffs. Only once (Miami in 2023) has the No. 7 been forced to play a second game to grab their playoff spot. Playing at home in the No. 7 seed game certainly helps, which brings us to…
Bet the Home Team
The home team is 12-6 in the three years of the current NBA Play-In Tournament format. That includes a 5-1 record by the No. 7 seed in the No. 7 seed game. The No. 9 seed is 4-2 in their matchups against the No. 10 seed.
The No. 9 Seed Can Be Your Upset Special
The No. 9 seed is 3-1 in the No. 8 seed game (played against either the No. 8 or No. 7 seed) as a win-or-go-home contest. There may be a momentum factor here (if you believe in the concept of momentum), as the No. 9 has come off a win, while they are facing a team coming off a loss in the No. 8 seed game.
More Wins = Better Chance to Advance
It makes sense that the teams with the better regular season records would fare better in the NBA Play-In Tournament. But based on the three years of the current format (2021-23), the more wins the No. 7 or No. 8 seeds have, the more likely they will advance.
The magic number seems to be 44 wins. Once a team has that many wins in the NBA regular season, and if they are still required to battle in the play-in tournament, they usually advance. Teams with a minimum of 44 wins are 3-1 at advancing out of the play-in tournament.
For the 2023-24 NBA season, we may see as many as five teams win 44+ games and still have to appear in the NBA Play-In Tournament.
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