The AFC East is replete with NFL playoff contenders heading into the new season, but the Buffalo Bills are the consensus betting favorite to win the division for a fourth-straight time.
Led by QB Josh Allen, the Bills will get their season off to a roaring start in the division with a Week 1 matchup against Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets.
The Jets are the second betting choice at top-rated sportsbooks, which offer generous betting bonuses for new users looking to bet on the NFL. Let’s take a look at the AFC East landscape with odds to win the division, season win totals, and more.
Odds to Win AFC East
Here are the odds to win the AFC East from FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, and BetRivers (with odds current as of July 31):
| AFC East Odds-- 2023/24 | FanDuel | Caesars (Code TODAY15) | BetMGM (Code TODAY) | BetRivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +130 | +125 | +130 | +120 |
| New York Jets | +250 | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Miami Dolphins | +290 | +300 | +275 | +300 |
| New England Patriots | +750 | +800 | +750 | +900 |
Buffalo Bills
The Bills rolled to last year’s AFC East title with a 13-3 record. Their late-season game against the Bengals was suspended after Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin collapsed due to cardiac arrest. Ultimately, the game was never played, and the good news is Hamlin is back for another season and at training camp with the Bills.
Cincinnati then rolled over Buffalo in the divisional round, 27-10. The Bills were the Super Bowl betting favorite for the majority of last season. Allen has his primary target back in WR Stefon Diggs, who was seen screaming at his QB in the playoff loss to the Bengals. Ken Dorsey also returns as offensive coordinator under head coach Sean McDermott.
WR Gabe Davis, RB James Cook, and TEs Dawson Knox and first-round pick Dalton Kincaid will be key cogs on offense. Buffalo’s offense ranked second in the NFL (behind Kansas City) with 28.4 points per game last season. The defensive unit was the second-stingiest in the league (behind San Francisco) with 19.9 ppg allowed.
Von Miller is back to lead the defense after recovering from an ACL injury last year. Buffalo is the perennial division winner, but it needs to bounce back from consecutive losses in the NFL Divisional round if it is to win the first Super Bowl title in franchise history.
The bet here is Buffalo captures its fourth AFC East championship. FanDuel and BetMGM both offer the best odds at +130 on the Bills as of this update.
Season Win Total Bet (Over 10.5; -134 at FanDuel)
It might be do-or-die time for the Bills to win the Super Bowl, but they’ve covered this number in three straight regular seasons.
New York Jets
The arrival of Rodgers changes the landscape of the AFC East heading into the 2023 season. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will be a familiar presence after working with Rodgers in Green Bay, and WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb also joined the Jets during the offseason.
WR Garrett Wilson captured Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season, and the Ohio State product will likely be the top target again this year. RB Breece Hall was a frontrunner to win that award before suffering an ACL injury. Head coach Robert Saleh believes Hall can be ready for Week 1, but Michael Carter might be the starter if that fails to pan out.
New York had a top-five defense last year but was hindered by poor QB play. Zach Wilson is now No. 2 on the depth chart, while Joe Flacco (free agent) and Mike White (Dolphins) are no longer with the team.
At 39, Rodgers still showed flashes of brilliance in Green Bay, but he fell outside of the top 10 in terms of passing with only 3,695 yards last season. He’ll be 40 before the regular season ends. Can Rodgers reprise the role of Tom Brady and win Super Bowls in his 40s? The jury is still very much out.
Season Win Total Bet (Over 9.5; -120 at Caesars)
The logic here is simple. The Jets finished 7-10 last year with a relative catastrophe going on at the QB position. Is Rodgers good for three more wins? We lean Yes to that.
Miami Dolphins
Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? That’s really the bottom-line question to ask when trying to forecast Miami’s success in the AFC East this season.
The Dolphins eked into the playoffs with a 9-8 record last year, but Tagovailoa missed multiple games with injury and concussion issues. When healthy, Tagovailoa is one of the most dynamic QBs in the league. He’s got two huge threats in WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There are still some concerns along the offensive line.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is expected to trigger major improvement on that side of the ball. The Dolphins snared DE/LB Bradley Chubb from the Broncos before the trade deadline last year. Miami also added top CB Jalen Ramsey to bolster the defense, but he suffered a meniscus tear in training camp and will likely be out until December.
As long as Tagovailoa remains healthy, the Dolphins will have a chance to compete for top honors in the AFC East this season. If not, no shot.
Season Win Total Bet (Under 9.5; -110 at BetMGM)
We’re betting that the answer to our whether Tagovailoa can stay healthy question is No. Take the Under here.
New England Patriots
Still believe in Bill Belichick’s coaching prowess above all else? Take some juicy odds ranging from +750 to +900 on the Patriots then to win the AFC East.
The Pats have endured two losing seasons in the last three years. New England hasn’t finished last in the division since 2000, which marked Belichick’s first year as coach.
Given the strength of the AFC East contenders, it might take Belichick’s best coaching performance to keep that from becoming another reality this year. New England welcomes Bill O’Brien back into the fold as offensive coordinator. Previously the OC at Alabama, he’ll be reunited with former Crimson Tide QB Mac Jones.
TE Mike Gesicki and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster were key offseason acquisitions and should help an offense that was mired in mediocrity last season. New England averaged a shade over 300 yards in total offense last year with 21.4 points per game. That’s simply not good enough to compete with three other elite QBs in the division.
Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe last year, and they are reportedly competing for the starting job in training camp. It’s hard to envision Jones starting the year as the backup, but neither QB engenders a lot of confidence.
The Patriots had a top-10 defense last season, which kept them in games and made them respectable at 8-9. That’ll have to be the case again this year if they have any chance to compete in the AFC East.
Season Win Total Bet (Under 7.5; -150 at BetRivers)
Quarterback play is the most critical consideration when handicapping a team’s prospects for success. The Patriots are simply lacking in that department. Perhaps Jones finds his footing in working with O’Brien again, but don’t expect too much given the AFC’s collective strength of schedule.
Which AFC East Teams Will Make Playoffs?
Using odds from BetMGM, let’s examine the odds for AFC East teams to make or miss the playoffs.
Bills
Yes (-250)
No (+200)
We tipped our hand here by picking Buffalo to win the division again, so obviously Yes is the bet here on making the playoffs at -250. That’s a little juicy, though.
Dolphins
Yes (-105)
No (-115)
This is tough without knowing whether Tua can stay upright for a full 17-game schedule. Pass.
Jets
Yes (-140)
No (+115)
Take the Yes at -140 because of a) Aaron Rodgers, and as importantly, b) the New York defense.
Patriots
Yes (+240)
No (-300)
New England is clearly the fourth-best team in the AFC East this season. It’s difficult to envision the Pats competing for the final wildcard spot, but we’ve been wrong before. Not interested in laying -300 on the No, so no bet here.
AFC East Odds FAQs
No, it just seems that way in recent years. Buffalo has won the last three AFC East titles dating back to 2020.
+200 means you’re getting 2-1 odds on NFL bets. You can double your money if the bet wins. Use our implied probability calculator to find out your percentage chance of winning at +200.
The Patriots have the most AFC East titles with 22.
Check out our Super Bowl odds page any time of the year to see what team is favored to win the Big Game.
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