NFL Betting Trends, Week 4: Gamblers Fading the GOAT as Home Underdog vs. Chiefs

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What is the world coming to? Bettors are lining up against the GOAT.

Tom Brady and his record seven Super Bowl rings haven’t dented the sentiment of nationwide bettors.

Gamblers have thus far shaded him and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before their Week 4 high-profile Sunday night matchup against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs.

Here is a look at DraftKings figures:

As Wednesday arrived, the Chiefs were getting 79% of the moneyline handle at -130.

They also had 75% of the spread handle at -2. Yes, the GOAT is getting points at home and bettors are still going the other way.

nfl week 4 betting trends
Tom Brady and the Bucs are losing the sentiment of public bettors, NFL Week 4 betting trends suggest (AP Photo/Alex Menendez)

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The over-under is a moderate 45.5. Yet 77% of the handle is on the Under, rare for a game in which Brady appears. Some of that can be traced to Tampa Bay’s stout defense, which has allowed only 27 points in three games, best in the NFL.

But some of that also is on Brady and the offensive line that’s not quite protecting him.

Tampa Bay has scored one touchdown in each of its first three games.

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Who Else Are Public Bettors Backing in NFL Week 4?

The Sunday night matchup headlines a week in which bettors have still not selected overwhelming favorites. Backing in the 90% range and above on the handle has yet to materialize, and many games are close to 50-50 with the public.

That sets up a vibrant betting weekend.

Besides the Chiefs, there are three teams the public has strongly lined up behind.

The New York Giants lead the way with 83% of the handle at -3 versus the Chicago Bears. Gamblers expect the Giants to overcome their fourth-quarter fade against the Dallas Cowboys in Monday’s 23-16 setback.

The 1-2 Detroit Lions are a hefty -4.5 against the Seattle Seahawks, but the bettors back them at 74% of the handle. That line opened -6.5 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on Sunday night.

The Green Bay Packers, at -10 against the New England Patriots, have a healthy 74% buy-in for handle.

The SuperBook opened GB -7.5, and the betting market is reacting to more than Green Bay’s 14-12 triumph in Tampa Bay against Brady and the Bucs last week.

This also is a reaction to the loss of Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, who hobbled off the field at the end of his team’s 37-26 setback to the Baltimore Ravens. Jones is expected to miss several weeks because of a high-ankle sprain.

Brian Hoyer is the backup, and fourth-round draft pick Bailey Zappe out of Western Kentucky is listed as the third option.

Hoyer has lost 11 consecutive starts (2016-20), the longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN.

Green Bay has the longest regular-season home winning streak of 14 games.

It’s Aaron Rodgers vs Hoyer, in Green Bay. And the bettors say “Check Please.” Green Bay has also snared 91% of the moneyline handle at -475. Most bettors will have to link that with some other bets in parlays to try making money, but this is their gimme.

Pick one for yourself: Best Sportsbook Apps for NFL Betting

Betting the Unbeaten Underdog

Thursday’s battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and visiting Miami Dolphins has generated 60% handle for Miami +4.

Giving Tua Tagovailoa more than a field goal has proven to be enticing for early bettors.

Go figure that the Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles are the NFL’s only 3-0 teams.

Two left: Odds for NFL Team to Go Undefeated

NFL Week 4 Over-Under Highlights

The largest backing of the Over occurs with the Cleveland Browns-Atlanta Falcons contest going over 49.5 points. The Over has generated 85% of the handle.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been Under-whelming and so, yet again, a Steelers game is the public’s top Under target at the start of betting.

Eighty-four percent of the handle is Under 40.5 points for the Steelers against the visiting New York Jets, who are expected to have Zach Wilson back at the helm.

Also read: NFL Week 4 Betting Tips & Strategies

Futures Market Update: Dolphins, Eagles Taking Super Bowl Bets

Giants running back Saquon Barkley hit paydirt for DraftKing bettors to the tune of +550 for being the first touchdown scorer Monday Night.

Prop bettors got the first collection. … Cowboys backers got the last laugh, as they prevailed 23-16.

Sunday’s action propelled bettors to invest in the futures market. Here are the teams and individuals who became hot commodities since the start of action Sunday, per DraftKings.

  • The Miami Dolphins, +1800 to win the Super Bowl, received a DraftKings-leading 16% of the handle.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles, down to +800 to become NFL champions, obtained 14% of the handle and a book-leading 21% of the betting tickets.
  • The defending champion Los Angeles Rams received 11% of the handle at +1500.

Lamar Jackson of the Ravens and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles became popular MVP betting targets after their teams triumphed.

  • Jackson, +700 to win the MVP, received 55% of the futures handle since Sunday.
  • Hurts, at +600, earned 21% of the handle.
  • Micah Parsons, enjoying an outstanding season with the Dallas Cowboys, saw bettors load up with 10% of the handle aimed at his noteworthy +2500 odds.

Check ‘em out: Super Bowl 57 Odds | 2022 NFL MVP Odds

NFL Parlays: Turning a Little Into a Lot

Parlays, or multi-leg bets, enable bettors to collect a lot when wagering a little. It’s one of the key ingredients to sports betting popularity, and the books have a Cinderella story most weeks.

Here is a Week 3 sample from DraftKings.

One bettor used a full weekend of college football and NFL upsets to turn their $9 bet into a $3,449.25 payout. Here are the winning legs:

  • IND Colts Moneyline
  • PHI Eagles Moneyline
  • BAL Ravens Moneyline
  • JAX Jaguars Moneyline
  • GB Packers +1.5
  • DEN Broncos +1.5
  • Middle Tennessee Moneyline (Live Bet)
  • Minnesota Moneyline (Live Bet)

This wager was aggressive. Middle Tennessee and Minnesota both won on the road.

The Indianapolis Colts had to score the biggest upset of the week in toppling the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 at +5. Their winning score came with 24 seconds remaining.

For this bettor to cash, Green Bay also had to beat Tom Brady, and the Denver Broncos had to sweat out an 11-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.

It was a two-day affair.

Bettors can get a lot of entertainment for $9, and when the breaks fall right, a lot of money.

One bettor turned a $0.50 bet into a $1,003.96 payout. The player was able to hit on 12 moneyline bets at +200693 odds with the winning legs of:

  • IND Coltss
  • MIA Dolphins
  • CHI Bears
  • MIN Vikings
  • CIN Bengals
  • PHI Eagles
  • BAL Ravens
  • TEN Titan
  • CAR Panthers
  •  JAX Jaguars
  • GB Packers
  • LA Rams

That’s how half a buck became more than a dime.

The bettor had to go against the heavily-favored Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. A near-miracle comeback by the Minnesota Vikings, who overcame separate deficits of 14 and 10 points, helped save the ticket.

Play: Best NFL Parlay Apps

Compelling Matchup of Week 4: A Closer Look

Chiefs vs. Bucs Betting Line: Kansas City -2

Between the Lines: It’s Brady vs Mahomes, the Encore

We thought it was over when Brady retired in the offseason, but his return recreates a battle for fans and bettors as he faces Patrick Mahomes.

At times, this matchup has filled the air with footballs. Their 2018 battle was stellar, with Brady’s New England Patriots topping Mahomes’ Chiefs, 43-40.

The Patriots defeated the Chiefs 37-31 in the 2019 post-season, another wild shootout.

Mahomes got on the board later the same year, with the Chiefs defeating the Patriots, 23-16.

In 2020, Mahomes topped Brady’s Bucs 27-24 during the regular season.

In the Super Bowl completing that season, the Bucs D turned the Super Bowl into Super Blah for Mahomes backers, as the Tampa throttled the defending champion Chiefs, 31-9.

The game gave Brady his record seventh Super Bowl ring.

To commemorate this rematch, FanDuel has listed one of its early props as Brady or Mahomes to pass for four touchdowns. It’s +300. Brady’s offense doesn’t have four touchdowns yet, but the prop will nonetheless garner wagers.

DraftKings put up one for which both Mahomes and Brady to throw at least one touchdown in each half. It’s +250.

Each might just settle for a rebound.

The Mahomes-led Chiefs kicked away their Week 3 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts in the 20-17 loss. That also snapped Kansas City’s streak of five straight road games hitting the Over.

And Brady’s Bucs lost at home to the Green Bay Packers, 14-12.

Could the GOAT lose two in a row at home?

So far, the bettors think so.

Bet NFL at FanDuel: Tap here for $1,000 Risk-Free First Bet

NFL Week 4 Betting Lines

Here are current odds from around the US sports betting market for this week’s NFL slate.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (9/29) @ 8:15pm ET MIA Dolphins +120 +250 +3300 +4500 +10000 +2800
CIN Bengals -145 -323 -10000 0 0 -10000
Sun (10/2) @ 9:28am ET MIN Vikings -161 -1667 -10000 -1250 -2500 -769
NO Saints +135 +900 +1700 +750 +900 +500
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET CLE Browns -149 -130 +525 +400 -120 +3500 0
ATL Falcons +125 +100 -1000 -556 +105 0 0
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET WAS Commanders +140 +2500 +3300 +1400 +143 +10000 +2000
DAL Cowboys -164 0 -10000 -5000 -164 0 -10000
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET TEN Titans +155 -5000 -5000 -1667 +175 -10000 -10000
IND Colts -185 +1300 +1350 +850 -200 +1500 +2800
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars +260 +1500 +3300 +2000 +8000 0
PHI Eagles -345 -10000 -10000 -5000 0 0
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET NY Jets +165 -10000 +200 0 -10000 -5000
PIT Steelers -200 +1800 -278 +3500 +1700 +1700
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET BUF Bills -164 -2000 -455 -1667 -1667 -2000
BAL Ravens +140 +1000 +300 +850 +800 +1100
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET SEA Seahawks +225 -1667 -345 -10000 0 -141
DET Lions -278 +900 +250 +2800 +4000 +120
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET CHI Bears +125 +850 +825 +6000 +10000 +7000
NY Giants -149 -1667 -2000 0 0 0
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET LA Chargers -278 -263 -10000 -345 0 0
HOU Texans +225 +210 +3300 +270 +10000 0
Sun (10/2) @ 4:06pm ET ARI Cardinals +105 -1667 -1667 -1667 0 0
CAR Panthers -125 +850 +850 +900 +10000 0
Sun (10/2) @ 4:25pm ET NE Patriots +340 +2000 +725 +1400 +365 +1060 +15000
GB Packers -455 -10000 -1667 -5000 -455 -3333 0
Sun (10/2) @ 4:27pm ET DEN Broncos +105 +220 +700 +240 +128 +10000 +6600
LV Raiders -125 -278 -1250 -303 -143 0 0
Sun (10/2) @ 8:22pm ET KC Chiefs -145 -2000 -10000 -1250 +110 0 -10000
TB Buccaneers +120 +1000 +1400 +750 -123 +8000 +2000
Mon (10/3) @ 8:15pm ET LA Rams +105 +900 +3300 +700 +10000 0
SF 49ers -125 -1667 -10000 -1250 0 0
Thu (9/29) @ 8:15pm ET MIA Dolphins +2.5 -110 +10.5 +530 +10.5 +475 +12.0 +1100 +12.5 0 +4.0 -108
CIN Bengals -2.5 -110 -10.5 -769 -10.5 -833 -12.0 -2500 -12.5 +4000 -4.0 -108
Sun (10/2) @ 9:28am ET MIN Vikings -3.0 -110 +2.5 +105 +2.5 +105 -2.5 -10000 -3.0 +175
NO Saints +3.0 -110 -2.5 -141 -2.5 -135 +2.5 +1600 +3.0 -208
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET CLE Browns -3.0 -105 -2.5 -141 -2.5 -141 -2.5 -149 -1.0 -114 +2.5 +7000 -3.0 +120
ATL Falcons +3.0 -115 +2.5 +110 +2.5 +105 +2.5 +120 +1.0 -108 -2.5 0 +3.0 -141
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET WAS Commanders +3.0 -110 +15.0 -175 +12.5 +185 +15.0 +110 +3.0 -108 +15.5 +168 +15.0 +160
DAL Cowboys -3.0 -110 -15.0 +140 -12.5 -250 -15.0 -141 -3.0 -114 -15.5 -227 -15.0 -189
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET TEN Titans +3.5 -110 -6.5 -115 -6.5 -149 -7.0 -588 +4.0 -114 -6.5 -2500 -7.0 0
IND Colts -3.5 -110 +6.5 -115 +6.5 +115 +7.0 +420 -4.0 -108 +6.5 +900 +7.0 0
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars +7.0 -110 +7.5 +255 +7.5 +1100 +8.5 -179 +8.5 -213 +8.5 -175
PHI Eagles -7.0 -110 -7.5 -323 -7.5 -5000 -8.5 +150 -8.5 +162 -8.5 +145
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET NY Jets +3.5 -110 +6.5 +100 +1.5 +180 +6.5 -115 -3.5 0 +6.5 -120
PIT Steelers -3.5 -110 -6.5 -130 -1.5 -250 -6.5 -115 +3.5 +4000 -6.5 +105
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET BUF Bills -3.0 -110 +2.5 +110 +2.5 +105 +2.5 +120 -6.5 -128 +2.5 +115
BAL Ravens +3.0 -110 -2.5 -141 -2.5 -141 -2.5 -149 +6.5 -102 -2.5 -135
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET SEA Seahawks +6.0 -110 -4.5 -110 -3.5 +110 -3.0 -345 -3.5 +7000 -2.0 -108
DET Lions -6.0 -110 +4.5 -120 +3.5 -145 +3.0 +270 +3.5 0 +2.0 -108
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET CHI Bears +3.0 -110 +7.5 +135 +7.5 +150 +7.5 +165 +8.5 0 +8.0 -145
NY Giants -3.0 -110 -7.5 -164 -7.5 -200 -7.5 -200 -8.5 +4000 -8.0 +125
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET LA Chargers -6.5 -110 -10.0 -179 -10.5 +600 -10.5 +800 -9.5 0 -3.0 +105
HOU Texans +6.5 -110 +10.0 +145 +10.5 -1111 +10.5 -556 +9.5 +2500 +3.0 -120
Sun (10/2) @ 4:06pm ET ARI Cardinals +1.5 -110 -10.5 +115 -11.5 +375 -10.5 +225 -12.5 -128 -10.5 +140
CAR Panthers -1.5 -110 +10.5 -145 +11.5 -588 +10.5 -278 +12.5 -102 +10.5 -169
Sun (10/2) @ 4:25pm ET NE Patriots +10.0 -110 -3.0 +100 +1.5 +300 -2.5 -130 +9.5 -109 +2.5 +900 +2.5 +140
GB Packers -10.0 -110 +3.0 -130 -1.5 -455 +2.5 +100 -9.5 -112 -2.5 -2500 -2.5 -169
Sun (10/2) @ 4:27pm ET DEN Broncos +2.0 -110 +9.0 -323 +9.5 -345 +9.5 -667 +2.5 -106 +9.5 -233 +2.5 -145
LV Raiders -2.0 -110 -9.0 +250 -9.5 +250 -9.5 +450 -2.5 -115 -9.5 +175 -2.5 +125
Sun (10/2) @ 8:22pm ET KC Chiefs -2.5 -110 -9.5 -476 -9.5 -370 -10.0 +525 +2.0 -114 -9.5 -1250 -10.0 -161
TB Buccaneers +2.5 -110 +9.5 +320 +9.5 +270 +10.0 -833 -2.0 -108 +9.5 +630 +10.0 +135
Mon (10/3) @ 8:15pm ET LA Rams +2.0 -110 +14.5 +110 +14.5 +140 +15.0 -10000 +14.5 +290 +9.5 -115
SF 49ers -2.0 -110 -14.5 -141 -14.5 -185 -15.0 +2800 -14.5 -417 -9.5 +100
Thu (9/29) @ 8:15pm ET MIA Dolphins u47.5 -105 u41 -130 u42.5 -667 u42.5 0 u41 -108
CIN Bengals o47.5 -115 o41 +100 o42.5 +400 o42.5 +2200 o41 -108
Sun (10/2) @ 9:30am ET MIN Vikings o46.5 -110 o41.5 -105 o41.5 -110 o41.5 -112
NO Saints u46.5 -110 u41.5 -115 u41.5 -110 u41.5 -109
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET CLE Browns u46.5 -110 u47 -110 u46.5 +110 u48.5 -110 u48.5 -109 u43.5 0 u46.5 +125
ATL Falcons o46.5 -110 o47 -120 o46.5 -145 o48.5 -110 o48.5 -112 o43.5 +7000 o46.5 -145
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET WAS Commanders u42.5 -110 u38.5 +100 u35.5 -200 u41 -110 u41.0 -112 u35.5 -2000 u35.5 -115
DAL Cowboys o42.5 -110 o38.5 -130 o35.5 +165 o41 -110 o41.0 -109 o35.5 +790 o35.5 +100
Sun (10/2) @ 1:00pm ET TEN Titans u43.5 -110 u51 -120 u49.5 -130 u43 -110 u43.0 -114 u41.5 -909 u48 0
IND Colts o43.5 -110 o51 -110 o49.5 +105 o43 -110 o43.0 -108 o41.5 +530 o48 0
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars o47.5 -115 o50.5 +240 o53.5 +950 o50.5 +120 o55.5 -115
PHI Eagles u47.5 -105 u50.5 -303 u53.5 -3333 u50.5 -156 u55.5 +100
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET NY Jets o41.5 -110 o39 -115 o39.5 -125 o44.5 +2200 o40 -108
PIT Steelers u41.5 -110 u39 -115 u39.5 -105 u44.5 0 u40 -108
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET BUF Bills u53.5 -110 u50.5 -135 u50.5 -135 u46.5 +215 u50 +110
BAL Ravens o53.5 -110 o50.5 +105 o50.5 +110 o46.5 -294 o50 -130
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET SEA Seahawks u49.5 -115 u85.5 -105 u84.5 -115 u93.5 0 u84 -145
DET Lions o49.5 -105 o85.5 -125 o84.5 -115 o93.5 +7000 o84 +125
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET CHI Bears o39.5 -110 o35 +100 o36.5 -105 o32.5 +2800 o35 +100
NY Giants u39.5 -110 u35 -130 u36.5 -125 u32.5 0 u35 -115
Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET LA Chargers u46.5 -110 u58 -149 u58.5 -500 u58.5 -10000 u57 +100
HOU Texans o46.5 -110 o58 +120 o58.5 +360 o58.5 +1600 o57 -115
Sun (10/2) @ 4:06pm ET ARI Cardinals o44.5 -110 o37 -125 o40.5 -130 o44.5 -179 o42.5 +100
CAR Panthers u44.5 -110 u37 -105 u40.5 +100 u44.5 +136 u42.5 -115
Sun (10/2) @ 4:25pm ET NE Patriots u42.5 -110 u51 -130 u49.5 +333 u40.5 -114 u51.5 -2000 u51.5 -189
GB Packers o42.5 -110 o51 +100 o49.5 -455 o40.5 -108 o51.5 +790 o51.5 +160
Sun (10/2) @ 4:27pm ET DEN Broncos o44 -110 o54 -110 o53.5 -115 o45.5 -112 o55.5 +162 o54 +100
LV Raiders u44 -110 u54 -120 u53.5 -115 u45.5 -109 u55.5 -213 u54 -115
Sun (10/2) @ 8:22pm ET KC Chiefs o46.5 -110 o74.5 -125 o74.5 -110 o47.0 -110 o72.5 +325 o72 -135
TB Buccaneers u46.5 -110 u74.5 -105 u74.5 -110 u47.0 -110 u72.5 -500 u72 +115
Mon (10/3) @ 8:15pm ET LA Rams o44 -110 o35.5 -105 o35.5 -110 o33.5 +350 o39.5 -108
SF 49ers u44 -110 u35.5 -125 u35.5 -110 u33.5 -526 u39.5 -108
About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo is a multiple award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970’s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. He has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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