What is the world coming to? Bettors are lining up against the GOAT.
Tom Brady and his record seven Super Bowl rings haven’t dented the sentiment of nationwide bettors.
Gamblers have thus far shaded him and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before their Week 4 high-profile Sunday night matchup against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs.
Here is a look at DraftKings figures:
As Wednesday arrived, the Chiefs were getting 79% of the moneyline handle at -130.
They also had 75% of the spread handle at -2. Yes, the GOAT is getting points at home and bettors are still going the other way.
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The over-under is a moderate 45.5. Yet 77% of the handle is on the Under, rare for a game in which Brady appears. Some of that can be traced to Tampa Bay’s stout defense, which has allowed only 27 points in three games, best in the NFL.
But some of that also is on Brady and the offensive line that’s not quite protecting him.
Tampa Bay has scored one touchdown in each of its first three games.
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Who Else Are Public Bettors Backing in NFL Week 4?
The Sunday night matchup headlines a week in which bettors have still not selected overwhelming favorites. Backing in the 90% range and above on the handle has yet to materialize, and many games are close to 50-50 with the public.
That sets up a vibrant betting weekend.
Besides the Chiefs, there are three teams the public has strongly lined up behind.
The New York Giants lead the way with 83% of the handle at -3 versus the Chicago Bears. Gamblers expect the Giants to overcome their fourth-quarter fade against the Dallas Cowboys in Monday’s 23-16 setback.
The 1-2 Detroit Lions are a hefty -4.5 against the Seattle Seahawks, but the bettors back them at 74% of the handle. That line opened -6.5 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on Sunday night.
The Green Bay Packers, at -10 against the New England Patriots, have a healthy 74% buy-in for handle.
The SuperBook opened GB -7.5, and the betting market is reacting to more than Green Bay’s 14-12 triumph in Tampa Bay against Brady and the Bucs last week.
This also is a reaction to the loss of Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, who hobbled off the field at the end of his team’s 37-26 setback to the Baltimore Ravens. Jones is expected to miss several weeks because of a high-ankle sprain.
Brian Hoyer is the backup, and fourth-round draft pick Bailey Zappe out of Western Kentucky is listed as the third option.
Hoyer has lost 11 consecutive starts (2016-20), the longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN.
Green Bay has the longest regular-season home winning streak of 14 games.
It’s Aaron Rodgers vs Hoyer, in Green Bay. And the bettors say “Check Please.” Green Bay has also snared 91% of the moneyline handle at -475. Most bettors will have to link that with some other bets in parlays to try making money, but this is their gimme.
Pick one for yourself: Best Sportsbook Apps for NFL Betting
Betting the Unbeaten Underdog
Thursday’s battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and visiting Miami Dolphins has generated 60% handle for Miami +4.
Giving Tua Tagovailoa more than a field goal has proven to be enticing for early bettors.
Go figure that the Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles are the NFL’s only 3-0 teams.
Two left: Odds for NFL Team to Go Undefeated
NFL Week 4 Over-Under Highlights
The largest backing of the Over occurs with the Cleveland Browns-Atlanta Falcons contest going over 49.5 points. The Over has generated 85% of the handle.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been Under-whelming and so, yet again, a Steelers game is the public’s top Under target at the start of betting.
Eighty-four percent of the handle is Under 40.5 points for the Steelers against the visiting New York Jets, who are expected to have Zach Wilson back at the helm.
Also read: NFL Week 4 Betting Tips & Strategies
Futures Market Update: Dolphins, Eagles Taking Super Bowl Bets
Giants running back Saquon Barkley hit paydirt for DraftKing bettors to the tune of +550 for being the first touchdown scorer Monday Night.
Prop bettors got the first collection. … Cowboys backers got the last laugh, as they prevailed 23-16.
Sunday’s action propelled bettors to invest in the futures market. Here are the teams and individuals who became hot commodities since the start of action Sunday, per DraftKings.
- The Miami Dolphins, +1800 to win the Super Bowl, received a DraftKings-leading 16% of the handle.
- The Philadelphia Eagles, down to +800 to become NFL champions, obtained 14% of the handle and a book-leading 21% of the betting tickets.
- The defending champion Los Angeles Rams received 11% of the handle at +1500.
Lamar Jackson of the Ravens and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles became popular MVP betting targets after their teams triumphed.
- Jackson, +700 to win the MVP, received 55% of the futures handle since Sunday.
- Hurts, at +600, earned 21% of the handle.
- Micah Parsons, enjoying an outstanding season with the Dallas Cowboys, saw bettors load up with 10% of the handle aimed at his noteworthy +2500 odds.
NFL Parlays: Turning a Little Into a Lot
Parlays, or multi-leg bets, enable bettors to collect a lot when wagering a little. It’s one of the key ingredients to sports betting popularity, and the books have a Cinderella story most weeks.
Here is a Week 3 sample from DraftKings.
One bettor used a full weekend of college football and NFL upsets to turn their $9 bet into a $3,449.25 payout. Here are the winning legs:
- IND Colts Moneyline
- PHI Eagles Moneyline
- BAL Ravens Moneyline
- JAX Jaguars Moneyline
- GB Packers +1.5
- DEN Broncos +1.5
- Middle Tennessee Moneyline (Live Bet)
- Minnesota Moneyline (Live Bet)
This wager was aggressive. Middle Tennessee and Minnesota both won on the road.
The Indianapolis Colts had to score the biggest upset of the week in toppling the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 at +5. Their winning score came with 24 seconds remaining.
For this bettor to cash, Green Bay also had to beat Tom Brady, and the Denver Broncos had to sweat out an 11-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.
It was a two-day affair.
Bettors can get a lot of entertainment for $9, and when the breaks fall right, a lot of money.
One bettor turned a $0.50 bet into a $1,003.96 payout. The player was able to hit on 12 moneyline bets at +200693 odds with the winning legs of:
- IND Coltss
- MIA Dolphins
- CHI Bears
- MIN Vikings
- CIN Bengals
- PHI Eagles
- BAL Ravens
- TEN Titan
- CAR Panthers
- JAX Jaguars
- GB Packers
- LA Rams
That’s how half a buck became more than a dime.
The bettor had to go against the heavily-favored Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. A near-miracle comeback by the Minnesota Vikings, who overcame separate deficits of 14 and 10 points, helped save the ticket.
Play: Best NFL Parlay Apps
Compelling Matchup of Week 4: A Closer Look
Chiefs vs. Bucs Betting Line: Kansas City -2
Between the Lines: It’s Brady vs Mahomes, the Encore
We thought it was over when Brady retired in the offseason, but his return recreates a battle for fans and bettors as he faces Patrick Mahomes.
At times, this matchup has filled the air with footballs. Their 2018 battle was stellar, with Brady’s New England Patriots topping Mahomes’ Chiefs, 43-40.
The Patriots defeated the Chiefs 37-31 in the 2019 post-season, another wild shootout.
Mahomes got on the board later the same year, with the Chiefs defeating the Patriots, 23-16.
In 2020, Mahomes topped Brady’s Bucs 27-24 during the regular season.
In the Super Bowl completing that season, the Bucs D turned the Super Bowl into Super Blah for Mahomes backers, as the Tampa throttled the defending champion Chiefs, 31-9.
The game gave Brady his record seventh Super Bowl ring.
To commemorate this rematch, FanDuel has listed one of its early props as Brady or Mahomes to pass for four touchdowns. It’s +300. Brady’s offense doesn’t have four touchdowns yet, but the prop will nonetheless garner wagers.
DraftKings put up one for which both Mahomes and Brady to throw at least one touchdown in each half. It’s +250.
Each might just settle for a rebound.
The Mahomes-led Chiefs kicked away their Week 3 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts in the 20-17 loss. That also snapped Kansas City’s streak of five straight road games hitting the Over.
And Brady’s Bucs lost at home to the Green Bay Packers, 14-12.
Could the GOAT lose two in a row at home?
So far, the bettors think so.
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NFL Week 4 Betting Lines
Here are current odds from around the US sports betting market for this week’s NFL slate.