Under Bets Pour in on Bucs Season Win Total

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Caesars Sportsbook bettors are hammering the Under on the Buccaneers’ season win total of 11.5, with 87.8% of the handle on that side of bet. As of Friday afternoon, Tampa Bay Under 11.5 is juiced to -120 at Caesars, with Over offered at even-money.

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Bucs’ Season Win Total Odds At Various Sportsbooks

Here’s a look at the Bucs’ current season win total and odds across the sports betting industry as of Friday.

Season Win Total OddsCaesars (Code TODAY15)DraftKingsCircaWestgate SuperBook
BuccaneersO 11.5 (+100)
U 11.5 (-120)
O 11.5 (+100)
U 11.5 (-120)
O 11 (-110)
U 11 (-110)
O11.5 (+100)
U 11.5 (-120)

Circa is the outlier here, as the Las Vegas-based book offers its patrons -110 odds on both sides of 11 wins.

“We’ve taken a few big bets under 11.5 and 11 on the Bucs,” Circa Sports Director of Risk Chris Bennett said in a text to Gaming Today on Friday. “The public is so far not interested in the over.”

Westgate SuperBook VP of Risk Management Ed Salmons told Gaming Today that there’s been little interest so far in the Bucs season win total at his book.

“We have a little bit more money on the under,” Salmons said in a text on Friday, adding, “Ton of action (on the Bucs) to win the conference and Super Bowl. No interest in wins.”

Despite the lopsided ‘under’ action at Caesars, the Bucs win total remains where it opened at the book this past spring.

Tampa Bay also opened the 2021 season at 11.5 wins and surpassed that total with 13 victories in the regular season. Could there be regression coming with Tom Brady another year older at 45 (as of his birthday on August 3) and no Rob Gronkowski to rely on at tight end?

Caesars bettors are pounding the under on Tampa Bay's season win total. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File)
Bettors are fading Tom Brady and the Bucs with overwhelming action on Under in the season win totals market. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

 

Time will tell, but the Bucs are clearly the class of the NFC South. They have favorable matchups against Atlanta and Carolina — and look for payback against New Orleans after getting swept by the Saints last year.

Also read: NFC South odds

In his first season with Tampa Bay in 2020, Brady led the Bucs to a Super Bowl victory, and they went 11-5 in the 16-game regular season. There was an eight year-stretch (2010-2017) with the New England Patriots where Brady won a minimum of 12 games and produced a pair of 13- and 14-win campaigns. With the NFL’s expanded 17-game schedule as of last season, Brady has an extra game to reward ‘over’ backers.

Bet on Brady to Lead NFL in Passing Yards Again?

Caesars Sportsbook has Brady as the betting favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards. Here are odds on the top-5 QBs at Caesars as of Friday, Aug. 5.

PlayerCaesars (Code TODAY15)
Tom Brady+700
Justin Herbert+750
Matthew Stafford+750
Patrick Mahomes+800
Joe Burrow +900

Brady was the NFL’s top passer last year with 5,316 yards. He also led the league in completions (485) and touchdowns (43). He’s expected to get a serious challenge from LA Chargers gunslinger Justin Herbert this season. Herbert, who finished second to Brady last year with 5,014 yards, was the only other quarterback to surpass the 5K mark.

If you’re an ‘over’ bettor, check out one additional betting market at Caesars: Brady’s passing TD total. Caesars is dealing Brady at 36.5 (O/U -115). That number seems exploitable, given Brady has averaged 41.5 passing TDs in his two seasons with the Buccaneers.

Also read: Five Strategies for Betting NFL Preseason Games | Browns’ Odds Shorten After Watson’s Six-Game Suspension

About the Author
Kris Johnson

Kris Johnson

Writer & Contributor
Kris Johnson is a Senior Writer at Gaming Today with more than 15 years of experience as a sports journalist. Kris' work has appeared in Sports Business Daily, Sports Business Journal, NASCAR Illustrated, and more. Kris also authored a sports betting novel entitled The Endgame.

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