Who’s behind center? Bettors prepare to flood the quarterback market for the 2024 NFL Draft, running Thursday night through Sunday.
Because of their star power, more signal callers may be selected in the first round this year than in the last two drafts combined. At least three are expected to go early, during the highest profile stage of the draft.
Here’s our NFL Draft Betting Trends analysis, linked with odds from some major sportsbooks. Scour the apps and look for deals because everyone evaluates talent differently.
Quarterbacks Lead the Way
DraftKings listed the Over-Under for first-round QB’s at 4.5, with the Over at -300 and the Under at +230.
Three quarterbacks were taken last year, all in the first-four picks, but none after. In 2022, only one was selected. That was Kenny Pickett of the Pittsburgh Steelers, now a Philadelphia Eagle.
Gamblers expect a barrage of early quarterback selections.
That includes the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams from USC, the 2023 Heisman Trophy Jayden Daniels of LSU, and Drake Maye from the University of North Carolina as the top three quarterbacks taken.
Williams, the runaway top pick at odds of roughly +20000 (200-1), will land with the Chicago Bears. Daniels looks headed to the Washington Commanders, and Maye could end up with the New England Patriots, who have the third pick.
Add J.J. McCarthy of national championship-winning Michigan into the mix as a likely early selection.
That means the first-round total prop will likely be decided by whether Bo Nix of Oregon or Michael Penix Jr. of Washington are tabbed in the opening round. Nix captured the Maxwell Award this past season.
This is a strong quarterback class. That will impact draft results at all other positions.
Related Pages: Super Bowl Odds | NFL MVP Odds
NFL Draft First-Round Odds at Each Position
Every selection matters for gamblers who want to focus on totals for a particular position throughout the first round. Here are the Over-Under odds by position from DraftKings:
- Cornerbacks 5.5 (Over +300, Under -400)
- Defensive Linemen and Edge Players 6.5 (Over +200, Under -250)
- Total Defensive Players 10.5 (Over -190, Under +150)
- Offensive Linemen 9.5 (Over -200, Under +160)
- Offensive Players 21.5 (Over +150, Under -190)
- Running Backs 0.5 (Over +800, Under -1600)
- Safeties 0.5 (Over +600, Under -400)
Some may view the running back prop as worth a flier to see if just one gets off the board.
NFL Draft Odds on Top Players Taken
Caleb Williams is the overwhelming favorite to be taken off the board first. Gaming Today has further coverage for picks two through five:
On Tuesday night, the book rapidly expanded its menu to reach odds on players through the 10th selection. For gamblers immersed in the process, this could become quite an adventure.
Ways to Bet on the NFL Draft
Gamblers who perceive an edge will have significant opportunities in some unique areas.
The Over-Under of what pick a player will go. This brings relevance to the final few selections of the first round.
The first pick for every NFL team by position. Regional bettors often love this as they follow a particular team and respond to newspaper reports and interviews about the club’s needs. This appeals to those who believe they can outsmart the experts for a good price.
More options include whether a player will go Top 5 or Top 10, draft matchups of who is selected first between players A and B, and most players taken by conference. The DraftKings board has the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, and SEC listed.
Do you think you know your draft and where teams are looking? This one isn’t easy to pick but it will pay well.
FanDuel Odds on Mr. Irrelevant and NY Jets
Mr. Irrelevant by position at FanDuel:
- Defensive End/Edge, +380
- Offensive Linemen, +500
- Cornerback, +550
- Wide Receiver, +550
- Quarterback, +600
- Linebacker, +700
- Running Back, +850
- Safety, +950
- Tight End, +1600
- Kicker, Long Snapper, +2000
This is not an easy pick to handicap. One doesn’t know who the Jets will stockpile at the end of seven rounds. That will depend on how the other rounds developed.
Of course, Mr. Irrelevant and Mr. Practically Irrelevant made a major presence in Super Bowl 58.
Quarterback Brock Purdy has become the highest-profile Mr. Irrelevant. The 2022 selection led the San Francisco 49ers into the Super Bowl, where they were upended in overtime by the Kansas City Chiefs.
And the player drafted just 11 spots ahead of him, running back Isiah Pacheco, has been a prominent performer for the defending two-time Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
BetMGM NFL Draft Insights
Most bet draft positions (tickets)
- Michael Penix Jr.
- J.J. McCarthy
- Bo Nix
Most bet to go UNDER draft position (tickets)
- Michael Penix 32.5
- Bo Nix 32.5
- Adonai Mitchell 27.5
Most bet to go UNDER draft position (handle)
- Michael Penix 32.5
- Rome Odunze 8.5
- Laiatu Latu 16.5
Most bet to go OVER draft position (tickets)
- J.J. McCarthy 5.5
- Dallas Turner 9.5
- Brian Thomas Jr. 19.5
Most bet to go OVER draft position (handle)
- Bo Nix 32.5
- Brian Thomas Jr. 19.5
- Dallas Turner 9.5
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