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Updated Friday, 18 September 2026 · Week 2
Below is a pick for every game on this week’s slate with the reasoning behind each call. This page is updated every Tuesday for the rest of the season, so bookmark it rather than a week-numbered article.
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We are taking New Orleans and the 8.5 points in Baltimore, Cincinnati at +2.5 in Houston, and the under on Thursday night’s slate-high 53.5. We are passing on two games entirely.
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Lines checked ahead of publication and subject to movement. Confirm the current number at your sportsbook.
NFL Picks This Week: Full Slate
| Matchup | Line | Our pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions at Bills (Thu) | BUF -3, 53.5 | Under 53.5 | High |
| Bengals at Texans | HOU -2.5 | Bengals +2.5 | High |
| Panthers at Falcons | ATL -1.5 | Pass | — |
| Saints at Ravens | BAL -8.5 | Saints +8.5 | Highest |
| Browns at Buccaneers | TB -8.5 | Buccaneers -8.5 | Medium |
| Eagles at Titans | [LIVE] | Confirm line first | — |
| Packers at Jets | [LIVE] | Confirm line first | — |
| Vikings at Bears | [LIVE] | Confirm line first | — |
| Commanders at Cowboys | [LIVE] | Lean Commanders. Hooker out for Dallas | Low |
| Colts at Chiefs | [LIVE] | Lean Chiefs at home | Low |
| Dolphins at 49ers | SF -10.5 | Dolphins +10.5 | Medium |
| Cardinals at Seahawks | SEA -9.5 | Cardinals +9.5 | Medium |
| Giants at Rams (Mon) | [LIVE] | Pass until the line settles | — |
| Remaining games | [LIVE] | Confirm lines first | — |
Three Games Worth Explaining
Saints at Ravens: Saints +8.5
Our most confident call for NFL odds this week. New Orleans trailed Detroit 21-0 in Week 1 and came within a score of completing the comeback, covering comfortably as a 7-point underdog.
Eight and a half is a lot to lay against a team that just showed it does not fold, and Week 1 gave a blunt reminder about big early-season numbers. The Chargers were the only double-digit favourite on that board and lost outright to Arizona.
Bengals at Texans: Bengals +2.5
The winning team is getting the points. Cincinnati held off Tampa Bay 33-27 while Houston lost 36-31 at Buffalo despite scoring 31.
Houston also loses linebacker Henry To’oTo’o to a shoulder injury with no return date, against an offence that just put up 33. At +120 on the moneyline, the outright win is live too.
Cardinals at Seahawks: Cardinals +9.5
Arizona beat the Chargers 26-14 outright as an 11.5-point underdog last week. The market has responded by installing them as a 9.5-point underdog again.
Seattle should win at home in NFL week 2. But asking Arizona to lose by ten or more, seven days after they beat a bigger favourite outright, looks like the market underreacting to real information.
Why We Are Passing on Two Games
Panthers at Falcons. Atlanta laying 1.5 at home having just lost Da’Shawn Hand for the season to a torn quadriceps. A coin flip that got marginally worse for the favourite after the number was set. No edge.
Giants at Rams. The widely quoted line predates both a 27-7 loss and Myles Garrett’s move to injured reserve, with Aaron Donald’s return unresolved. Until that settles, a pick here would be guesswork. Revisit Monday.
Passing is a legitimate position. Two no-edge games in a sixteen-game slate is normal, and forcing picks on them is how a decent season becomes a mediocre one.
Our Running Record
Updated weekly so you can judge these picks against something rather than taking them on trust.
| Week | ATS record | Totals | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | [FILL IN] | [FILL IN] | [FILL IN] |
| Week 2 | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Record includes every graded pick, wins and losses. Passes are not counted either way.
How We Make These Picks
- Key numbers first. Three and seven are the most common NFL margins. Where a line sits relative to them matters more than the raw number.
- Line movement over line level. Where a number opened Monday against where it sits Friday tells you where the money went after everyone watched the previous week.
- Injury news beats analysis. Especially with a Thursday game, where Wednesday’s report is effectively final.
- Respect what the results actually showed. One week of tape is not much, but it beats projection. Arizona beating an 11.5-point favourite is information.
- Pass when there is no edge. Sixteen picks is not the target. Correct picks are.
This Week’s Schedule
| Day | Date | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday | 17 September | Lions at Bills, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Sunday | 20 September | 14 games |
| Monday | 21 September | Giants at Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET |
For our strongest plays and a parlay, see our Week 2 best bets. For injury news that could move these lines, see our Week 2 latest news.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best NFL picks this week?
Our highest-confidence call is Saints +8.5 in Baltimore. Bengals +2.5 in Houston and the under on Thursday night’s 53.5 are the other two we like most.
How often are these NFL picks updated?
Every Tuesday for the whole season. This page carries the current week’s slate, so there is no need to look for a week-numbered version.
What does against the spread mean?
You are betting on the margin of victory rather than just who wins. A team at -7 must win by 8 or more to cover. A team at +7 covers if it wins outright or loses by 6 or fewer.
Why do you pass on some games?
Because not every game offers an edge. Two coin-flip or unresolved lines in a sixteen-game slate is normal, and forcing picks on them costs more over a season than skipping them does.
Are picks more reliable now that Week 1 is done?
Yes. Week 1 was projection with no competitive tape. From Week 2 onward there are real results to work from, which narrows the range of likely outcomes.
What is the difference between these picks and your best bets?
This page picks every game on the slate. Our best bets page covers only the handful of plays we have real conviction on, plus a parlay.
Picks are analysis and opinion, not guarantees of any outcome. Odds referenced were accurate at the time of writing and are subject to change. You must be 21 or older and physically located in a state where sports betting is legal to place a wager. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential support.
