The NFL is about a quarter of the way through its 2022 season and it’s been as action-packed as ever through four games. We’ve already seen several historic comebacks, other-worldly feats of athleticism, double-doinked field goals, and captivating sideline antics.
Off the field, the expansion of sports betting across the country has brought millions more eyes to the league as betting continues its upward trajectory nationwide. The NFL has prided itself on its parity and it rings true again this year as half the league sits at or is within one game of .500. There are bound to be more comebacks and heartbreaks upcoming for teams, sportsbooks, and bettors alike.
In our NFL Week 5 betting picks and predictions, see which teams are primed to turn it up as we approach the middle half of the season.
Detroit Lions (+3) at New England Patriots
Through four weeks, the Detroit Lions have been one of the league’s most interesting teams. Few expected an offensive powerhouse out of the Motor City, but the Lions sit atop the stat boards with the league’s highest average points per game, yards per game, and rushing yards per play.
NFL · Sun (10/9) @ 1:02pm ET
| DET Lions | at | NE Patriots |
| Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts | ||
What really matters, however, is a team’s overall record — and the Lions are 1-3 and in last place of the NFC North. Against the spread, the Lions are 14-7 during Dan Campbell’s tenure. Two of their three losses on the season came by just a three-point deficit. Getting a field goal on the road against an injury-ridden Patriots team, the Lions are one of the best bets for NFL Week 5.
New England is notoriously coy with injuries, but second-year quarterback Mac Jones is unlikely to play with an ankle injury and backup Brian Hoyer left Sunday’s loss to the Packers with a concussion. Rookie Bailey Zappe is expected to get the nod behind center.
Although the Patriots are facing a historically-bad Lions defense, Zappe will be without leading receiver Jakobi Meyers. On the opposite side of the field, Lions quarterback Jared Goff is expected to get his leading receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, back in the lineup.
Although the Patriots defense has solid pieces — and one of the top defensive minds in the sport — they haven’t been overly impressive this season. They managed to slow down Aaron Rodgers last week and force overtime, but in the weeks prior, they were gashed by Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa. The Patriots lone victory was a 17-14 road win over the Mitchell Trubisky-led Pittsburgh Steelers.
If the Lions manage to score close to their 35 points per game average, there’s little faith rookie Zappe and the Patriots — with a measly 18 points per game average — will be able to keep up.
Read: NFL Week 5 betting tips and strategies
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
Before the season, few expected this Falcons and Buccaneers Week 5 matchup to be for first place in the NFC South. Atlanta enters the week off two-straight victories for a 2-2 record and Tampa Bay has dropped their last two to find themselves at .500 as well.
NFL · Sun (10/9) @ 1:03pm ET
| ATL Falcons | at | TB Buccaneers |
| Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida | ||
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Since Tom Brady joined the Buccaneers following the 2019 season, Tampa Bay is an impressive 7-3 ATS after a loss. After losing consecutive games to the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, the Bucs look to bounce back and reclaim their position at the top of the division.
Brady hasn’t registered three straight losses since his rookie season over two decades ago. One of the best bets of NFL Week 5, take the Bucs to cover the spread and improve to 3-2 on the year.
The Atlanta Falcons, from top to bottom, are miles behind the Packers and Chiefs teams the Bucs have faced. Tom Brady finally has his top receivers — Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Julio Jones — all healthy and playing. Against a Falcons defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards per game, it’s a prime opportunity for an angry Brady to get the Bucs’ Super Bowl aspirations back on track.
Despite facing two of the league’s elite quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, the Tampa Bay defense still ranks as one of the league’s top units.
The Falcons offense under quarterback Marcus Mariota has been an average unit at best, riding a two-game winning streak over the Cleveland Browns and Seattle Seahawks. Mariota has failed to register more than 230 passing yards in a game and has thrown for fewer than 200 in half of his games this year.
Also read: NFL Week 6 look-ahead lines
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (Under 47.5)
The Buffalo Bills are riding high after erasing a 17-point deficit to come back and win against the Baltimore Ravens. They return home for a lopsided matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
NFL · Sun (10/9) @ 1:00pm ET
| PIT Steelers | at | BUF Bills |
| Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York | ||
The Bills, still dealing with several injuries, should get a comfortable lead over Pittsburgh and their defense should suffocate the Steelers offense. Only one of these teams can light up the scoreboard and a total in the upper-40s is too high for this one-sided battle. One of the best bets of NFL Week 5, take under 47.5 in this AFC contest.
Pittsburgh is on a three-game losing streak since beating Cincinnati in overtime Week 1. They are averaging only 18.5 points per game this season and their 278 yards per game is the third-fewest in the league. During halftime of last week’s loss to the Jets, head coach Mike Tomlin benched Mitchell Trubisky and handed the reins to rookie Kenny Pickett.
Despite his three interceptions, Pickett looked sharp in his debut. He’ll get a significantly tougher test this week, however, going from a bottom-ten defense in the Jets to one of the league’s top units. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a league-low 64.7 QBR against the Bills and the defense is salivating at the thought of playing a rookie in his first start.
This will be the fourth-straight year the Bills face the Steelers and the under has cashed in each of the last three years by an average margin of 8.3 points. To make matters worse for the two offenses and special teams units, wind gusts are expected to be in the high teens at kickoff Sunday.
A two-touchdown spread is a lot for any team, but the Bills outmatch the Steelers at nearly every position. The under is a safer play than the spread, however, as our NFL Week 5 prediction is the Bills winning by a score of 28-13.
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