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OK, we’re back (reluctantly) on the mainland after two weeks in sun-drenched Hawaii as the PGA Tour gears up for three straight events in California as the FedEx Cup race heats up.
This week it’s The American Express, and it’s being held at the Pete Dye Stadium Course in La Quinta, CA.
The tournament will feature another star-studded field as many of the big names will be getting back into action after having taken weeks off after last year’s run in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
While guys like Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, and others went to Maui for the Tournament of Champions, they all skipped last week’s Sony Open on Oahu.
But now it’s full speed ahead.
This week’s field will feature 14 of the world’s top 50 players, so there’s no better time than the present to start making sure your game is in top form. Why? Well, one of the most impressive facts and figures of this event is that 87 players in the field have combined to win 317 Tour titles. A strong field? Undoubtedly.
With that in mind, we’re going to leave the surf and umbrella drinks of Hawaii in the rearview mirror and look ahead to taking on a famed Pete Dye layout.
Odds To Win The American Express (BetMGM)
Jon Rahm +550
Patrick Cantlay +900
Scottie Scheffler +2000
Sungjae Im +2200
Tony Finau +2200
Corey Conners +2500
Matthew Wolff +2500
Russell Hunley +2800
Seamus Power +2800
Talor Gooch +2800
As always, shop around the betting market for the best odds for your plays.
California Dreamin’ Is A Real Thing
When you’ve played as much golf in California as Patrick Cantlay has, you’re bound to have success. He’s had plenty including the 2021 FedEx Cup trophy to prove it.
Don’t expect Cantlay, a ULCA grad, to rest on his laurels and just go through the motions this week. He was in fine form on Maui (a solo fourth-place finish) and heads to this event as one of the favorites at +900. DraftKings was also dealing Cantlay at +900. Sometimes, you’ve just got to know when to back a player with lower odds.
In fact, if you go by the odds, this is a two-man event with Jon Rahm favored at +550 followed by Cantlay at +900. Then the odds leap up to Scottie Scheffler at +2000, so there’s a lot of money to be made if one of the two favorites doesn’t win.
But that’s not going to get us off backing Cantlay this week. If you add in the fact that he was second here last year to champion Si Woo Kim, there’s no one on Tour with more confidence in his game.
And one more Cantlay fact: Once he gets in a groove, he tends to stay there for awhile. During his run to the FedEx Cup title last fall, his last three finishes were T-11 at the Northern Trust (the first playoff event) before winning the final two events (the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship) to secure the title and Player of the Year honors.
It’s one of those sayings: Don’t bet against a hot hand.
We’re Staying With the Californian Theme
Some are starting to jump off the Matthew Wolff bandwagon. Not us. Wolff, at +2500 this week, has way too much talent not to put everything back together and win again. FanDuel was offering +3100 on Wolff, so check its oddsboards before making any play on him.
Wolff has deep California roots. Born in Simi Valley, he went to Westlake High School. He committed to play college golf at USC before changing his mind and heading to Oklahoma State, where he helped the Cowboys win the NCAA title in 2019.
Just six weeks later, he was a pro and standing in the winner’s circle at the 2019 3M Open in just his fourth PGA Tour start.
He hasn’t won since, but he’s on the rebound. He has been battling back after stepping away from golf in April 2021 to deal with mental issues that were affecting him on and off the course.
Now, he’s back to having fun…on and off the course.
And it’s showing up in his results. Since the start of the 2021-2022 wraparound season, he’s had four starts and four top-20 finishes. That includes a second at the Shriners event in Las Vegas, where he has now been a runnerup for two straight years. (File that stat away as we get to that event this fall).
He was T-40 here last year before he stepped away from the game, so he should have good vibes about this event as well.
Overall, life on the PGA Tour can be tough even when everything is going well. When something’s a little off–whether it’s with your game, swing or even your mental approach–it can take time to get everything back in order.
This just might be the week things come into crystal-clear focus for Wolff and he picks up that second PGA Tour victory.
Another One To Watch Out For This Weekend
This tournament has seen its share of winners who aren’t household names. Kim won last year for his third career title, but before that it was Andrew Landry in 2020 and Adam Long in 2019.
With that in mind, we’re going to go with a player who broke into the winner’s circle last fall, but is still working on that whole household name thing: Talor Gooch at +2800 (PointsBet).
It’s tough to figure out why a guy in the top five of the FedEx Cup rankings at this point of the season has such high odds, but we certainly aren’t going to turn down this number.
Gooch’s first win came at the RSM Classic last November. He’s kept playing solid and is coming off a two-week stint in Hawaii, where he was 15th at the Tournament of Champions on Maui and 27th last week at the Sony Open.
He’s still getting used to being paired with top-notch players with prime tee times, but he should only get stronger in his play and confidence as the season and his career move forward.
