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War and sports are driving the trending contracts in prediction markets. While skepticism remains high regarding a return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz or a near-term peace deal, markets are decisive about one thing: who will be crowned this year’s NBA champion.
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Strait of Hormuz maintains ‘celebrity’ status
The Strait of Hormuz emerged from relative obscurity in late February to become a household name in March. The waterway plays a pivotal role in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran; approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the passage.
That flow was reduced to a trickle after Iran threatened attacks on vessels. When will the usual stream of tankers resume their route toward the Pacific Ocean? The market is incredibly bearish, giving only a 25% chance that the figurative dam will break by the end of the month.
Peace in the Middle East? Likely not until June
A peace deal may become a necessary reality for the U.S. as inflation surged in March due to war-influenced gas prices. Americans already struggling with a high cost of living now face additional pressure from the oil shortage.
While the odds that a permanent peace will be reached by May are better than a coin flip, they remain uninspiring. Market sentiment is currently leaning toward June 30.
Trump’s promise of UFO disclosure
This past week, President Donald Trump promised that the first installments of the FBI’s UFO files would be released “very, very soon.” Trump made the comments during a briefing with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
Whether Trump follows through in the coming weeks remains to be seen, but prediction markets are taking a “wait-and-see” approach, betting against a full disclosure by year’s end.
Thunder favored to repeat as champions
If the markets are correct, the Oklahoma City Thunder will cruise to this year’s NBA championship. A victory would mark OKC’s first back-to-back titles in franchise history. They would become only the fourth team to repeat in the last 20 years, joining the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, and Miami Heat.
The Thunder bolstered their case for a second consecutive ring by blowing out the Phoenix Suns by 35 points Sunday. While the market gives the San Antonio Spurs a 19% chance of taking the title, they would likely have to upset the Thunder just to reach the Finals—a tall order against the heavy favorites.
