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This week’s trending prediction markets offer a wide range of options for contract traders, from the specific phrases President Donald Trump will use in his State of the Union address to whether the U.S. government will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life.
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What will Trump say in the State of the Union?
President Donald Trump will deliver his State of the Union speech today, and related prediction markets are booming. Kalshi’s contracts focus on which specific phrases or words the president will utter.
While common terms such as “trillion” and “ICE/National Guard” are considered near-certainties at 93% and 89%, respectively, several “wild card” options sit in the 40% to 50% range:
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Somali/Somalia/Somalian: 53%
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Vaccine/autism: 47%
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Fake news: 54%
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Highest inflation: 43%
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Hoax: 40%
Will the Supreme Court order a tariff refund?
On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration’s publicized tariffs were unlawful based on the legal justification used for the levies: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. Consequently, the court could order the administration to provide rebates to U.S. businesses that paid the tariffs.
Prediction markets are relatively certain that a Supreme Court rebate mandate will occur before 2027 (74%), and more than 50% believe it will happen before July 2026.
Will the U.S. confirm aliens exist before 2027?
This past week, the Trump administration announced it will release millions of pages of documents regarding the government’s exploration of potential alien life.
Do the markets believe in extraterrestrials? Not yet. Kalshi’s contracts lean heavily toward “no confirmation” (80%), leaving only a 20% chance that the U.S. will officially confirm alien life.
Who will successfully acquire Warner Bros.?
Over the past few months, a spirited battle has emerged between Netflix and Paramount over the acquisition of media giant Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns the HBO brand. Paramount appeared to be on the verge of a hostile takeover—an acquisition attempted against the wishes of the target company’s board—earlier this year, but Warner Bros. rejected the offer.
Since then, Netflix has swooped in with a buyout offer that remains valid through late March. The prediction markets remain ambivalent:
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Netflix: 48%
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Paramount: 43%
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No acquisition before July 2027: 13%
The bottom line on prediction market sentiment
As global headlines shift from high-stakes corporate mergers to unprecedented legal rulings, these prediction markets provide a real-time barometer of public and investor expectations. While traders are increasingly certain of a looming Supreme Court rebate mandate, there remains a deep-seated skepticism regarding the likelihood of an official government “smoking gun” on extraterrestrial life.
For now, the markets suggest that while corporate landscapes and tax laws are poised for a shake-up, the truth behind the Trump administration‘s upcoming document dump remains a long-shot bet.
