NFL Week 7 player prop bets are about going with what I know. I have dominated quarterback props this year and see tons of opportunities this week with QB passing yards and rushing yards.
On the season, my player prop bets record is 30-20 with 16.05 units of profit. With quarterback props, I am 11-7 with 7.98 units of profit.
For Week 7, I have seven player prop recommendations. Hopefully, the 7s turn up lucky.
Be sure to get these bets in quickly before the lines move, as they tend to on Fridays. Odds below were available as of this Friday publication.
“Bet with your head, not over it” ~ Furio from Sopranos
Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Damien Harris To Score A Touchdown +115 (BetMGM)
Damien Harris is the go-to guy for the Patriots around the goal line. The middle of the Jets’ defensive line is not very good, and the unit yields the fourth most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Plus-money on this anytime touchdown scorer bet is excellent value.
Justin Fields To Score A Touchdown +390 (FanDuel)
This fat price of +390 is solid value for the running quarterback. Justin Fields is taking control of the Bears offense, and I expect him to run wild this weekend. The Buccaneers defense gave up two rushing touchdowns to Jalen Hurts last week. A similar situation could arise this week with Lavonte David out due to injury.
Best Week 7 Player Prop Bets
QB Rushing Prop Bet: Geno Smith Over 7.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
This prop was released Friday and is my favorite one available. Geno Smith had three rushes for 23 yards when he replaced Russell Wilson against the Rams two weeks ago. He had -1 rushing yards against the Steelers last week but was under fire and sacked five times. I would expect the Colts pass rush to be slightly less fierce than the Steelers, and Geno can use his legs effectively when needed. OVER 7.5 is easily doable in a single play. Gimme Geno!
QB Rushing Prop Bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards -115 (PointsBet)
Mahomes went ‘over’ this number in each of his last four games, in which he’s averaged 40.75 rushing yards per game, more double the total we are getting here. This is an auto-bet every week until Mahomes stops running or sportsbooks start respecting his legs. Patrick is a no-brain bet in this shootout.
QB Prop Bet: Tua Tagovailoa Over 250.5 Passing Yards -125 (FanDuel)
Tua aired it out last week to the tune of 329 passing yards against Jacksonville. The Falcons secondary is as poor as they come and is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per game in the NFL. Tua is essentially auditioning for jobs at this point, since the Dolphins are rumored to covet Deshaun Watson as the future at the position. There is no shortage of motivation for Tua, who will need to show off that arm if he has any hope of being a starting quarterback in the NFL next season.
QB Prop Bet: Carson Wentz Over 212.5 -115 (DraftKings)
Carson has only missed this number once this year. The 49ers pass rush is fierce, but the secondary is banged up. A prime-time spot for Wentz to have an above-average passing game seems about right this week. I will back Wentz here, as the projection should be closer to 250 yards. The edge is massive for this pick.
Receiving Prop Bet: Evan Engram Under 31.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)
Engram popped up on the injury report again Thursday. Regardless, Engram has gone ‘over’ this total once this year! Ralph Vacchiano reports Engram practiced on Friday. Keep a close eye on the injury reports, but this one projects as an ‘under’ if the first-round bust plays.
Giants TE Evan Engram, who missed practice Thursday with a calf injury, will practice today, said Joe Judge.
Judge wasn't sure about WR Sterling Shepard, who sounds like he's had a setback with his hamstring. He was more optimistic about WR Darius Slayton (hamstring).
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano) October 22, 2021
Also read: NFL Week 7 early line moves | NFL Week 7 totals