Share 
The trending contracts at prediction markets like Polymarket cover two main areas this week: the conflict in Iran and its impact on oil, and two major sporting events.
Oil price forecast: Will crude hit $120?
Crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly since the United States launched its attack on Iran on Feb. 28. Prices surged past $100 on March 30 and have yet to fall below that key threshold. On Polymarket, traders favor two outcomes: that prices will peak either under $110 or over $120 at some point this month.
U.S.-Iran ceasefire: Polymarket odds
When will peace return to the Middle East? Following President Donald Trump’s recent comments promising the destruction of Iran, the market suggests it may not be soon. Polymarket odds favor a ceasefire by June 30 (60%) and Dec. 31 (76%). Odds are nearly 50-50 for a ceasefire by May 31.
Arsenal emerges as Champions League favorite
The UEFA Champions League final will take place May 30. Participants will be decided over the coming weeks as the quarterfinals and semifinals conclude. The favorite, according to Polymarket? Arsenal, a storied English football club that has never hoisted the Champions League trophy.
The Gunners share 25% odds with Bayern Munich, but the Premier League powerhouse has attracted approximately $250,000 more in contract volume than the German squad.
Shipping deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has responded to attacks from the U.S. and Israel by essentially halting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of the world’s oil. The normally bustling passage has slowed to a trickle.
As a result, crude oil has reached near-historic highs. Nationally, gas prices have spiked, with the average for a gallon of regular unleaded passing $4 for the first time in years. Trump has threatened devastating consequences if Iran does not reopen the waterway, but Tehran has not conceded.
What are the chances the strait will open by the end of the month? Polymarket gives it just a 31% chance of returning to normal traffic by April 30. Looking ahead, the market remains skeptical, placing the odds of a reopening by May 31 at 44%.
Masters 2026 odds: Sheffler vs. the field
The Masters, the iconic golf tournament held annually in Augusta, Georgia, is often called “a tradition unlike any other.” Who will take home the green jacket? Polymarket identifies Scottie Scheffler as the clear favorite.
The world No. 1 has a 14% chance of winning, followed by Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau at 8%, and Rory McIlroy at 7%. If recent history is any indication, the market is betting on experience; Scheffler, Rahm, and McIlroy have combined to win the last four tournaments.
