World Cup 2022 Group Odds, Picks, Predictions

With the 2022 World Cup nearly upon us, it’s time to break down how the betting market sees each four-team group, as we sift through odds to win Groups A through H.

In just about every group, one team is expected to cruise through to knockout play, two are expected to battle for second place, and one is given virtually no shot at so much as a second-place finish.

Below are tables listing all 32 World Cup teams’ odds (from Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetRivers) to both win their group and advance with a top-two finish.

Odds to Win World Cup Group A

The heavy favorite in the group featuring host nation Qatar is the Netherlands. While the Dutch side are a much bigger long shot to win the whole tournament than their European rivals like England and France, they’re expected to cruise through group play. Oddsmakers see Senegal as the slight favorite ahead of Ecuador to challenge the Netherlands, with Qatar deemed a likely non-factor.

Odds to Advance From Group A

The question in Group A is whether to choose Senegal or Ecuador to advance alongside the Netherlands. The biggest name for Senegal (as heavily favored as -125 on FanDuel) is Bayern Munich star Sadio Mane, who joined the Bundesliga side this summer after a prolific tenure with Liverpool. While Ecuador lacks a star of Mane’s caliber, it’s hard to trust a Senegal side whose top player is as banged up as Mane. He nearly didn’t make the trip, and it’s already been announced that he’ll miss at least Senegal’s first game.

Group A Prediction

Taking Ecuador at +105 to advance on BetRivers is the best Group A value pick.

Also read: Qatar vs Ecuador odds, props, predictions

Odds to Win World Cup Group B

As detailed in our USA odds breakdown, the USMNT and Wales are considered big underdogs to win the group behind England (-286 on Caesars).

If you do like USA’s chances to win this group, they’re best value is +550 on both Caesars and FanDuel.

Odds to Advance From Group B

This is likely going to come down to how the USMNT does against Wales in these teams’ World Cup opener on Monday at 2 p.m. ET. The line in that matchup (DraftKings has USA +165, with Wales +195 and the draw priced at +195) tells us to expect a virtual coin flip. I like the US in a struggle, with their superior (or at least higher-priced) talent winning out. Per Transfermarkt.us, USA boasts 11 players valued at $10 million or more, including five at $20 million or more, while Wales has just six players worth $10 million or more, and just two worth $20M or more.

Group B Pick

The best value play is taking the US to advance at -105 on DraftKings.

Also read: World Cup 2022 Predictions | 2022 World Cup odds

Odds to Win World Cup Group C

Noticing a theme here? Group C, just like Groups A and B — if not every single group — has a clear favorite (Argentina), two solid contenders to finish second (Mexico and Poland) and a massive long shot to advance, much less win the group (Saudi Arabia). While Argentina has crashed out of a World Cup or two much sooner than its fans could have imagined, Lionel Messi’s team finishing anywhere besides first in this group seems unfathomable.

Odds to Advance From Group C

There is (seemingly) nothing up for debate about whether Argentina will do enough to advance. But oddsmakers are split between Poland and Mexico, with El Tri considered the favorite to advance. As discussed in Gaming Today’s piece analyzing Mexico’s odds, Tata Martino’s team had some issues last summer (losing to the US in the final of both the Gold Cup and CONCACAF Nations League) and in regional qualifying against the World Cup-level competition they faced from the USMNT and Canada.

Group C Pick

Though keeper Guillermo Ochoa will keep his team in it, I give Poland the slight edge. Take advantage of the opportunity offered by Caesars (Poland at +100) to get Robert Lewandowski’s side at even money.

Odds to Win World Cup Group D

France is one of the tournament favorites, and few teams, if any, are expected to have less difficulty navigating group play.

Odds to Advance From Group D

Oddsmakers consider Group D one of the rare ones without a lot of competition for second place. Denmark, surprise semifinalists at Euro 2020 last summer, are heavily favored to join France at the expense of two of the more lowly regarded squads in the tournament in Tunisia and Australia.

Odds to Win World Cup Group E

If there’s one group that’s truly wide open as far as who will finish in first place, it’s this one. The World Cup winners in 2010 (Spain) and Germany (2014) are missing the players that brought home those trophies, but they’re both among the favorites to win it all. Spain’s odds are as short as +750 on FanDuel, while Germany is +1000 on BetMGM. Both teams also have managers with who have won the Champions League at elite clubs. Spain’s Luis Enrique managed Barcelona from 2014-17 and Germany’s Hansi Flick managed Bayern Munich from 2019-21.

If you haven’t already, circle November 27 on your calendar for the meeting of these teams at 2 p.m. ET.

Odds to Advance From Group E

The good news when a group has two teams as solid as Spain and Germany is that first place will be hotly contested. The bad news is that neither Japan nor Costa Rica have much of a shot to advance, unless oddsmakers are just dramatically underestimating those two teams

Odds to Win Group F

Belgium is not the trendy favorite this year that it was in 2018, but this side still boasts a couple of the best players in the world in midfielder Kevin De Bruyne and keeper Thibaut Courtois. Belgium’s standing as the clear favorite to win the group makes perfect sense.

Group F Prediction

If there’s one massive long shot to win a group that is worth backing with a half-unit or so, why not Canada? While the Canadians don’t strike me as a real threat to Belgium, they can hang with Croatia and Morocco, and there’s some value in a team as solid as Canada at a price like +1400 on Caesars.

Odds to Advance From Group F

As much as I hate to suggest that Luka Modric and Croatia could get eliminated in group play after reaching the final of the 2018 World Cup, Canada offers outstanding value, especially at +310 on Caesars. Maybe their inexperience on this stage matters more than I realize, but this feels like one of the most underrated teams on the board.

Odds to Win World Cup Group G

No, I do not have anything profound to say about whether heavy World Cup favorite Brazil will win this group. If there’s one lock to win a group, it’s Neymar and Co. in Group G.

Odds to Advance From Group G

Oddsmakers believe the battle to qualify from Group G between Switzerland and Serbia will be as competitive as any in group play. Both teams look solid on paper, but Switzerland lacks any stars quite on the level of Serbian strikers Dusan Vlahovic (Juventus) and  Aleksandar Mitrović (Fulham) or midfielder Sergej Milinković-Savić (Lazio).

Group G Pick

With that in mind, I lean toward Serbia, which is a tempting option at +110 on DraftKings. Also, our Golden Boot analysis did not mention Vlahovic or Mitrovic, but at +5000 to win the Golden Boot on FanDuel, either player (or both) could be worth a flier.

Odds to Win World Cup Group H

Portugal has enough talent to win this group with ease, but are they cohesive enough to live up to their potential? Cristiano Ronaldo’s talent is undeniable, but his work rate, at this point in his career is far from it, and he’s appeared to alienate — to put it lightly — his Manchester United manager and teammates this season. He’s enough of a red flag to make Uruguay at +200 on FanDuel awfully tantalizing.

And the form of midfielder Fede Valverde (he has six goals and two assists for Real Madrid this season) as well as the potential for a breakout by Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez make Uruguay that much more intriguing.

Odds to Advance From Group H

Portugal and Uruguay are both too talented for me to recommend either Ghana or South Korea, but the fact that both are priced at odds well shorter than +300 to advance speaks to the depth of this group.

Tottenham star Son-Heung Min alone makes South Korea dangerous. Ghana boasts a few solid EPL players of its own in Arsenal midfielder Thomas Partey and Southampton center back Mohammed Salisu, in addition to speedy Athletic Club forward Iñaki Williams.