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Gaming Edge’s TL;DR
- A data review from Odaily says the 2026 World Cup delivered a major but temporary boost to prediction markets.
- Kalshi and Polymarket posted sharp gains in trading volume and fee revenue before activity cooled after the tournament ended.
The 2026 World Cup delivered a sharp trading and revenue boost for prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and predict.fun, but a new data review says much of that momentum faded once the tournament ended.
According to an Odaily analysis published July 24, World Cup-related markets generated $135.91 billion in trading volume on Kalshi and $103.56 billion on Polymarket, narrowing Kalshi’s lead to about 1.3x in event-specific volume.
The report’s broader takeaway was that the surge looked tied to the tournament itself rather than clear evidence of sustained platform growth.
By the numbers
Kalshi still led by a wide margin in total platform activity during the World Cup period, with $543.4 billion in total trading volume versus $209.9 billion for Polymarket. The review also said predict.fun produced $886 million in World Cup-related volume and $1.092 billion in total platform volume during the event.
The biggest change was in average daily trading volume during the tournament.
Kalshi’s daily average rose from $580 million in May to $1.393 billion during the World Cup, then fell to $494.4 million on July 22. Polymarket’s daily average climbed from $228 million in May to $538 million during the event, then dropped to $180.9 million on July 22.
Predict.fun followed the same pattern on a smaller scale. Its average daily volume increased from $14.7 million before the tournament to $28 million during the World Cup, then declined to $13.2 million on July 22.
Fee revenue also rose sharply during the event, according to the review. Kalshi’s cumulative fee revenue during the World Cup reached $473.2 million, compared with $111.4 million for Polymarket. Predict.fun generated $3.48 million in fee revenue over six settlement weeks.
Activity cooled after the final
Post-event declines were visible across all three platforms, though the drop was steeper for some than others.
Kalshi’s average daily fee revenue during the World Cup was $12.13 million and fell to $11 million on July 22, a decline of 9.3%. Polymarket’s average daily fee revenue fell from $2.86 million during the tournament to $1.7 million after it, a whopping 40.5% drop. Predict.fun’s daily revenue fell from about $83,000 to $53,000, down 36.1%.
The review also pointed to softer capital metrics after the tournament. Polymarket’s total value locked declined from about $410 million to $340 million after the event. Predict.fun’s TVL settled around $17 million, which the report said remained above its late-June low.
Based on reporting by Odaily.
