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Nevada Reps. Steven Horsford (D) and Mark Amodei (R) have introduced HR 9856, the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” in the U.S. House of Representatives. The bipartisan bill is the latest legislative effort to rein in prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
The bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bar federally regulated prediction markets from offering casino-style games or contracts tied to sporting events. It defines “casino-style game” to include slot machines, video poker, blackjack, roulette, craps and similar offerings.
It also defines “sporting event or athletic competition” broadly enough to cover amateur, collegiate and professional contests. The bill makes clear it would not preempt state laws governing sports betting or casino gaming.
Prediction market bill joins Senate companion
HR 9856 isn’t the first “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” in this Congress. Sens. John Curtis, R-Utah, and Adam Schiff, D-Calif., introduced a nearly identical Senate version in March, arguing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has let sports contracts proliferate without adequate oversight.
Curtis and Schiff said the CFTC has stepped back from enforcement even as prediction platforms partner with organizations like Major League Baseball, according to a news release from Curtis’ office. Neither the House nor Senate version has advanced out of committee.
The House bill was referred to the Agriculture Committee, which heard testimony on prediction markets just days before the filing. With Congress departing for its traditional August recess, it’s unclear when — or if — lawmakers will take up the measure.
Any action would come against the backdrop of November’s midterm elections, and prediction market operators have built relationships with President Trump and several congressional allies, making swift movement beyond committee unlikely.
The regulatory fight is also playing out in court. Courts have split on whether states can enforce gambling restrictions against CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi, a conflict that legal observers expect may ultimately require Supreme Court review absent new federal legislation.
Bill aims to protect Nevada’s casino industry
The pairing of two Nevada lawmakers behind the bill is no coincidence. Nevada has taken one of the country’s toughest stances against prediction markets offering sports contracts, and its casino industry — long the anchor of legal U.S. sports betting — has pushed back hard as mobile betting and prediction platforms cut into its business.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board has warned it could pull the license of any sportsbook operator that also offers prediction contracts. That threat led FanDuel to surrender its Nevada license, while DraftKings withdrew a dormant license application last November.
The policy has effectively kept the state’s largest operators, including Caesars and MGM, out of the prediction market business even as they compete against those same platforms in other legal betting states.
Meanwhile, lobbying on the issue has intensified. Kalshi spent $500,000 on federal lobbying in the second quarter of 2026 alone — more than it spent in all of 2025 — while the American Gaming Association has also increased its Capitol Hill spending as the two industries compete for lawmakers’ attention.
