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On the eve of the midterms, prediction markets favour Democrats in Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas, each priced between about 68% and 73%. Republicans are favoured in Iowa at about 56% to 58%, even though the polling average there is essentially tied.
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Here are the Senate races that decide control, with Kalshi, Polymarket, polling averages and Nate Silver’s margins side by side, and the three stories to watch on Tuesday night.
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Prices and polls are dated snapshots. For live odds, see our 2026 midterm elections predictions hub.
The Math in One Line
Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, because Vice President JD Vance breaks a 50-50 tie. Kalshi and Polymarket price Democratic control at about 69% to 72%.
Senate Race Odds on Election Eve
| Race | Polling average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Silver Bulletin margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Brown (D) vs Husted (R) | Not checked | Brown 71.3% | Brown 73.5% | D +3 |
| Alaska Peltola (D) vs Sullivan (R) | Peltola 50.2%, Sullivan 48.4% | Peltola 70.3% | Peltola 72.8% | D +3.6 |
| Texas Talarico (D) vs Paxton (R) | Talarico 49.2%, Paxton 45.8% | Talarico 68.6% | Talarico 70.5% | D +2.5 |
| Maine Jackson (D) vs Collins (R) | Jackson 49.5%, Collins 46.0% | Jackson 68.3% | Jackson 67.5% | D +2.4 |
| Iowa Turek (D) vs Hinson (R) | Turek 46.1%, Hinson 45.7% | Hinson 56.0% | Hinson 58.5% | Not checked |
| Michigan El-Sayed (D) vs Rogers (R) | Not checked | El-Sayed 75.0% | El-Sayed 79.5% | Not checked |
| Minnesota Flanagan (D) | Just under 6 points | Flanagan 90.5% | Flanagan 92.5% | Not checked |
| Nebraska Ricketts (R) vs Osborn (I) | Not checked | Ricketts 75.0% | Ricketts 75.0% | Not checked |
Prices are from Sunday 1 November at noon Eastern, except Michigan, Minnesota polling and Nebraska, which are from Saturday 31 October. North Carolina and Kansas were not re-checked this week. “Not checked” means we have not confirmed that figure.
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Which Way Did Each Race Move?
- Alaska: moved toward Peltola over the past day on both platforms.
- Maine: moved slightly toward Jackson on Kalshi and slightly toward Collins on Polymarket.
- Ohio: a slight move toward Brown.
- Texas: a slight move toward Paxton on both platforms from Saturday’s levels, but Talarico remains the favourite.
- Iowa: moved further toward Hinson.
- Minnesota: moved toward Flanagan.
Those are changes of a point or two, which is within the normal noise of a market. They are a reason to check the live price, not to read a trend.
The Races, One by One
Ohio: the biggest market edge
Former Senator Sherrod Brown faces appointed Senator Jon Husted in a special election. Both platforms price Brown above 70%, higher than the Decision Desk HQ model had him a week ago.
Alaska: ranked-choice and slow
Mary Peltola faces Senator Dan Sullivan. The polling average has Peltola ahead by under two points. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, with the tabulation scheduled for 18 November, so the final result may not be known on election night.
Texas: the most-traded race
Both platforms price Democrat James Talarico near 70% against Republican Ken Paxton. Our Texas Senate odds guide covers the early-vote record and the polling history.
Maine: ranked-choice and close
Troy Jackson leads incumbent Susan Collins in the polling average by about three and a half points, and both markets price him near 68%. Maine also uses ranked-choice voting, which can add days if no candidate wins a majority in the first count.
Iowa: the one where markets and polls point different ways
The polling average is essentially tied, with Democrat Josh Turek at 46.1% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45.7%. The markets still price Hinson as the favourite at 56% to 58.5%. If Democrats win a fifth seat, it is likely to be here.
Michigan and Minnesota: the Democratic defences
Democrats are holding open seats in both. Markets price Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 75% to 79.5% in Michigan, and Democrat Peggy Flanagan at 90.5% to 92.5% in Minnesota.
What Each Party Needs
- Democrats: hold Michigan and Minnesota, and flip at least four Republican seats. The prediction markets currently favour Democrats in Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas, and one report also counts North Carolina.
- Republicans: hold enough of Maine, Ohio, Texas and Alaska to lose no more than three seats on net.
- A 50-50 Senate: Republicans keep control on the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.
Three Things to Watch Tuesday Night
- The early states. Results from Georgia and Ohio arrive first in the evening and will shape how the night reads.
- Maine and Alaska ranked-choice counts. A close result in either state could stay open for days or weeks.
- Polling error. If the polls miss by three or four points in one direction, several close races could move together.
For the full timeline and how the markets settle, see our guide to politics prediction market midterm settlement.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favoured in the Senate races?
Markets favour Democrats in Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas, at about 68% to 73%, and Republicans in Iowa, at about 56% to 58%. Democrats are favoured in Michigan and Minnesota, which they hold.
Which Senate race is the closest?
Iowa, where the polling average is essentially tied, and Alaska, where Peltola leads by under two points.
How many seats do Democrats need?
A net gain of four, to reach 51. Republicans hold 53 seats and the vice president breaks ties.
When will Alaska’s result be known?
Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for 18 November, so the result may not be known on election night.
What are the odds Democrats win the Senate?
About 69% to 72% on Kalshi and 71% to 72% on Polymarket.
Do the markets match the polls?
Mostly in direction. Iowa is the exception: the polling average has Democrat Josh Turek slightly ahead, and the markets favour Republican Ashley Hinson.
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