2026 Midterm Elections Predictions: Live House and Senate Odds
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and prediction markets favor Democrats to take the House and, by a slimmer margin, the Senate. Below you'll find tracked odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, the newest polls, and every Senate race likely to decide the majority. Contract prices are probabilities, not results, and they move daily.
Odds snapshot: October 14, 2026. Election Day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
2026 midterm election odds at a glance
Two contracts drive most midterm trading: which party wins the House and which party wins the Senate. A third, the balance-of-power market, prices all four possible combinations at once. Here's where each one stood on Polymarket and Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. A 91¢ contract implies roughly a 91% chance, and it pays $1 if that outcome happens.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ House control | Democrats 91%, Republicans 10% | Democrats 90%, Republicans 10% |
| 🏛️ Senate control | Democrats 64%, Republicans 37% | Democrats 62%, Republicans 40% |
| 🔵 Democratic sweep | 63% | 61% |
| ⚖️ D House, R Senate | 29% | 30% |
| 🔴 Republican sweep | 9% | 11% |
| ⚖️ R House, D Senate | About 1% | About 1% |
The Senate math explains why that chamber is the tighter call. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. A 50-50 split would leave Republicans in control, since Vice President JD Vance casts tie-breaking votes. Each balance-of-power combination trades as its own contract with its own settlement rules, so don't expect the chamber-level prices to multiply neatly into the scenario prices.
Key facts: the closest 2026 Senate races
These are the Senate races where the market is closest to a coin flip, ordered from tightest to widest based on Polymarket pricing on October 14, 2026. Each line pairs the latest public poll we found with where traders currently stand.
- Iowa: Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 47% to 45% in an Emerson College poll released October 9. Hinson is the market favorite at 57¢.
- Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll released October 9. Jackson trades as the favorite at 59¢.
- Kansas: Republican Sen. Roger Marshall edges Democrat Adam Hamilton 47% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll released October 7. Marshall is favored at 62¢.
- Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 43% in a CNN poll released October 8. Brown trades at 63¢.
- Texas: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 45% in a New York Times/Siena poll released October 3. Talarico is the favorite at 64¢.
- Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 49% in a Fox News poll released October 2. El-Sayed trades at 71¢.
- Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43% in a New York Times/Siena poll released October 3. Peltola is favored at 74¢.
- Minnesota: Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya 47% to 43% in a Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll released October 12. Flanagan trades at 88¢.
- New Hampshire: Democrat Chris Pappas leads Republican John E. Sununu 51% to 44% in a Saint Anselm College poll released October 7. Pappas is favored at 89¢.
Which party will win the House in 2026?
As of October 14, 2026, prediction markets give Democrats about a 90% chance of winning the House, with Polymarket at 91% and Kalshi at 90%. Republicans hold the current majority, so a Democratic win would flip control of the chamber.
That price has firmed up steadily through the year. Kalshi had Democrats at 83% in March and 86% in mid-September before reaching 90% in October. A move that steady usually reflects accumulating evidence rather than one headline: national polling, special election results, and district-level fundraising have all pointed in the same direction. Even so, a 10% Republican price isn't zero. House control depends on dozens of close districts, and late shifts in turnout can move several of them at once.
What the polls say
The generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they'd support for Congress without naming candidates, is the best single polling signal for the House. Democrats led 49.8% to 41% in the Silver Bulletin polling average as of October 12, an 8.8-point edge that widened from 6.7 points on September 1. A New York Times/Siena poll in mid-September put Democrats ahead 51% to 43%. A lead of that size on the generic ballot is consistent with the market's strong lean toward a Democratic House.
How many House seats are up for election in 2026?
All 435 voting House seats are on the ballot in 2026, and a party needs 218 seats for a majority. House members serve two-year terms, so every seat is contested in every midterm and presidential cycle. That's different from the Senate, where only about a third of seats are up at a time.
Who will win the Senate in 2026?
Democrats are favored to win the Senate, but the margin is far narrower than in the House. Polymarket priced a Democratic Senate at 64% on October 14, 2026, while Kalshi sat at 62%. A week earlier, both platforms were at 65%, so the price has cooled slightly.
This market has completely reversed since spring. In March, Kalshi had Republicans at 56% to hold the Senate. By mid-September, Democrats had climbed to 57%, and they've stayed in front since. The flip tracks Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine drifting into competitive territory, while Democrats have so far protected their own open seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot this year: 33 regular elections plus special elections in Ohio and Florida. With Republicans at 53 seats, Democrats need to hold everything they're defending and flip four Republican seats to reach 51. That's why a handful of states carry so much weight. Polymarket's seat-count market gives a 39% chance that Republicans finish with 47 seats or fewer, which would mean a comfortable Democratic majority rather than a narrow one.
The Cook Political Report lists seven races as toss-ups as of October 6: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Six of those seven are seats Republicans currently hold, which is the core reason markets lean toward a Democratic Senate even though no single flip is a lock.
2026 Senate map: odds in every race
This map groups all 35 Senate races by how strongly prediction markets lean as of October 14, 2026. Darker blue means traders see a likely Democratic win, darker red a likely Republican win, and gray a race priced near a coin flip. Select any state with a full breakdown on this page to jump straight to its section.
Strong Democratic lean (90%+) Democratic lean (60% to 89%) Toss-up (41% to 59%) Republican lean (60% to 89%) Strong Republican lean (90%+)
A few other competitive races don't get a full section here, either because the market has already settled into a clear favorite or because the contest is rated safer than the polls alone might suggest. Here's where they stand.
| State | Matchup | Polymarket favorite | Kalshi favorite | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R), open seat | Cooper 96% | Cooper 95% | Cooper 47%, Whatley 35% (YouGov/Catawba College, Oct. 7) |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R), open seat | El-Sayed 71% | El-Sayed 68% | El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 49% (Fox News, Oct. 2) |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (D) vs. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) | Peltola 74% | Peltola 74% | Peltola 50%, Sullivan 43% (NYT/Siena, Oct. 3) |
| Florida (special) | Angie Nixon (D) vs. Sen. Ashley Moody (R) | Not listed in our snapshot | Moody 91% | Nixon 45%, Moody 45% (St. Pete Polls, Sept. 18) |
| Georgia | Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R) | Ossoff 97% | Ossoff 95% | Limited recent public polling |
| Nebraska | Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) vs. Dan Osborn (I) | Ricketts 73% | Ricketts 75% | Limited recent public polling |
Michigan is the one to watch in this group. The market gives El-Sayed a clear edge, yet the most recent poll had the race within a single point, and Cook still rates it a toss-up.
2026 midterm election odds vs. polls: who is ahead?
On the big picture, markets and polls tell the same story. Democrats lead the generic ballot by close to nine points, and traders have both chambers leaning Democratic. The interesting gaps show up race by race, where traders often price a candidate far more confidently than a single poll would justify.
- Kansas: Polls show a near tie, with Marshall up one point in the latest NYT/Siena survey and Hamilton up two in an earlier Emerson poll. Markets still price Marshall above 60%, betting that the state's partisan lean holds.
- Florida: A September poll showed a dead heat, but Kalshi prices Moody around 91%. Traders appear to be discounting a single survey in a state that has trended Republican.
- Minnesota and New Hampshire: Democratic leads of four and seven points translate into prices near 90%, a much stronger lean than those margins would suggest on their own.
- Iowa: This is where polls and markets line up most closely, with a two-point Hinson lead and a modest market edge for her.
When markets and polls disagree, neither side is automatically right. Markets fold in fundamentals like state partisanship and candidate history, while a single poll carries sampling error that can run several points in either direction. Spotting those gaps is part of a broader prediction market trading strategy, not a signal to act on by itself.
Who will win the Texas Senate race? Texas Senate election odds
Democrat James Talarico is favored over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, trading at 64¢ on Polymarket and 65¢ on Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. The seat is open, with Paxton, the state's attorney general, as the Republican nominee and Talarico, a state representative, carrying the Democratic ticket.
| Race detail | Texas Senate |
|---|---|
| 👥 Candidates | James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R) |
| 🏛️ Seat status | Open seat, currently held by Republicans |
| 📊 Polymarket | Talarico 64¢, Paxton 38¢ |
| 📊 Kalshi | Talarico 65¢, Paxton 37¢ |
| 📋 Latest poll | Talarico 51%, Paxton 45% (NYT/Siena, Oct. 3) |
| ⭐ Cook rating | Toss Up |
This is the biggest reversal on the 2026 Senate board. Earlier in the cycle, Paxton was the clear market favorite, and our earlier coverage reflected that. The race tightened through the summer, Cook moved it to a toss-up in August, and Talarico has led in most public polling since. The RealClearPolitics average through October 8 had him ahead 48.1% to 45.3%.
The price hasn't moved in a straight line, though. Talarico's Kalshi contract slipped from 66¢ to a low near 61¢ over the weekend of October 10-11, after a nine-day stretch off the campaign trail that his campaign attributed to the flu, then recovered to 65¢ once he returned to public events. Watch for any debate between the two, which hadn't been finalized as of mid-October.
Takeaway: Talarico is the favorite, but a Texas Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in decades, which is why traders stop well short of pricing this as safe.
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Who will win the Maine Senate race? Maine Senate election odds
Democrat Troy Jackson is a slight favorite over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, trading at 59¢ on Polymarket and 56¢ on Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. Collins, first elected in 1996, is seeking a sixth term against Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate.
| Race detail | Maine Senate |
|---|---|
| 👥 Candidates | Troy Jackson (D) vs. Sen. Susan Collins (R) |
| 🏛️ Seat status | Republican incumbent |
| 📊 Polymarket | Jackson 59¢, Collins 43¢ |
| 📊 Kalshi | Jackson 56¢, Collins 44¢ |
| 📋 Latest poll | Jackson 50%, Collins 46% (Washington Post-Schar School, Oct. 9) |
| ⭐ Cook rating | Toss Up |
Polling has moved Jackson's way through the fall. A Marist poll of registered voters taken October 1-4 had him ahead 51% to 47%, and the Washington Post-Schar School survey a few days later showed a similar four-point gap. Both leads sit near the edge of the margin of error, which is why the market hasn't pushed Jackson much past 60¢.
Collins is the reason traders stay cautious. She has a long record of outrunning her polling in Maine, and some traders are clearly pricing in that history. The national environment works against her this year, but her personal brand keeps the Republican side of this contract well above where a typical incumbent trailing by four points would trade.
Takeaway: Maine is one of the two closest Senate markets on the board, and it may be the single best test of polls versus incumbency this cycle.
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Who will win the Iowa Senate race? Iowa Senate election odds
Republican Ashley Hinson is favored over Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa, trading at 57¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. The seat is open, with Hinson, a US representative, facing Turek, a state representative.
| Race detail | Iowa Senate |
|---|---|
| 👥 Candidates | Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D) |
| 🏛️ Seat status | Open seat, currently held by Republicans |
| 📊 Polymarket | Hinson 57¢, Turek 44¢ |
| 📊 Kalshi | Hinson 60¢, Turek 41¢ |
| 📋 Latest poll | Hinson 47%, Turek 45% (Emerson College, Oct. 9) |
| ⭐ Cook rating | Toss Up |
Iowa is the tightest Senate market on the board, and the polling backs that up. Emerson's latest survey has Hinson up just two points, inside the margin of error, and Cook moved the race from Lean Republican to a toss-up in August. Iowa has voted Republican in recent statewide federal races, which is what keeps Hinson in front in the market despite a polling lead this narrow.
One detail worth noting: Polymarket's Iowa governor market had Democrat Rob Sand near 89% in mid-October. If traders are right about both races, a meaningful share of Iowa voters would be splitting their tickets, and any late movement in the governor's race could spill into the Senate contract.
Takeaway: Hinson holds a small edge, but this is the race most likely to swing on turnout alone.
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Who will win the Minnesota Senate race? Minnesota Senate election odds
Democrat Peggy Flanagan is a strong favorite over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, trading at 88¢ on Polymarket and 87¢ on Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. The seat is open following Democratic Sen. Tina Smith's retirement, with Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor, facing Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter.
| Race detail | Minnesota Senate |
|---|---|
| 👥 Candidates | Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R) |
| 🏛️ Seat status | Open seat, currently held by Democrats |
| 📊 Polymarket | Flanagan 88¢, Tafoya 13¢ |
| 📊 Kalshi | Flanagan 87¢, Tafoya 14¢ |
| 📋 Latest poll | Flanagan 47%, Tafoya 43% (Star Tribune/KARE 11, Oct. 12) |
| ⭐ Cook rating | Likely Democrat |
Minnesota is where the gap between the polls and the market is widest. Flanagan's four-point lead in the newest Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll still leaves 9% of voters undecided, and earlier surveys from SurveyUSA and Quantus Insights showed similar single-digit margins. Traders, however, have priced Flanagan near 90% for months, leaning on the fact that Republicans haven't won a Minnesota Senate race since 2002.
State note: Check prediction market access before you trade this one. Minnesota passed a law in May 2026 banning prediction markets, and Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC sued to stop it. A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on July 27 that blocks the ban while the case continues, so the legal status could still change.
Takeaway: Flanagan is a heavy favorite, but at 88¢ there's little upside left and real polling risk if undecided voters break late.
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Who will win the New Hampshire Senate race? New Hampshire Senate election odds
Democrat Chris Pappas is a strong favorite over Republican John E. Sununu in New Hampshire, trading at 89¢ on Polymarket and 90¢ on Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. The seat is open following Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement, and Pappas, a US representative since 2019, is facing Sununu, who held this Senate seat from 2003 to 2009.
| Race detail | New Hampshire Senate |
|---|---|
| 👥 Candidates | Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R) |
| 🏛️ Seat status | Open seat, currently held by Democrats |
| 📊 Polymarket | Pappas 89¢, Sununu 12¢ |
| 📊 Kalshi | Pappas 90¢, Sununu 11¢ |
| 📋 Latest poll | Pappas 51%, Sununu 44% (Saint Anselm College, Oct. 7) |
| ⭐ Cook rating | Lean Democrat |
This race looked much closer in late summer, when a UNH Survey Center poll had Sununu ahead by two points. Since then, Pappas has opened up a seven-point lead in the latest Saint Anselm survey, Cook shifted the race from a toss-up to Lean Democrat, and the market price climbed from the low 80s to about 90¢.
Sununu brings real name recognition, since his family has been a fixture in New Hampshire politics for decades, and he has President Trump's endorsement. But Republicans haven't won a Senate race in the state since 2010, and the national environment isn't helping him close that gap.
Takeaway: Pappas has pulled away in both the polls and the market, making this the Democrats' most secure open seat among the competitive races.
Who will win the Ohio Senate race? Ohio Senate election odds
Democrat Sherrod Brown is favored over Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio's special Senate election, trading at 63¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. Husted was appointed in early 2025 to fill the seat JD Vance vacated to become vice president, and this election decides who serves the rest of that term.
| Race detail | Ohio Senate (special) |
|---|---|
| 👥 Candidates | Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Sen. Jon Husted (R) |
| 🏛️ Seat status | Appointed Republican incumbent, special election |
| 📊 Polymarket | Brown 63¢, Husted 39¢ |
| 📊 Kalshi | Brown 60¢, Husted 41¢ |
| 📋 Latest poll | Brown 49%, Husted 43% (CNN, Oct. 8) |
| ⭐ Cook rating | Toss Up |
Brown is attempting a comeback after losing his Senate seat in 2024, which makes this one of the more unusual races on the map. A former three-term senator running as a challenger gives him name recognition most challengers don't have, and the latest CNN poll shows him ahead by six points. Earlier in the cycle, Husted led some surveys, so Brown's position has improved as the national environment shifted.
Traders remain cautious, and for good reason. Ohio has moved steadily to the right in federal races, and Brown's 2024 loss came despite similar polling strength late in that campaign. That memory is likely part of why his contract trades near 60¢ instead of tracking his polling lead more closely.
Takeaway: Brown has the edge, but Ohio's recent voting history keeps this a genuine toss-up in practice.
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Who will win the Kansas Senate race? Kansas Senate election odds
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is favored over Democrat Adam Hamilton in Kansas, trading at 62¢ on Polymarket and 64¢ on Kalshi as of October 14, 2026. Marshall is seeking a second term against Hamilton, a longtime United Methodist pastor running his first campaign for office as a political outsider.
| Race detail | Kansas Senate |
|---|---|
| 👥 Candidates | Sen. Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D) |
| 🏛️ Seat status | Republican incumbent |
| 📊 Polymarket | Marshall 62¢, Hamilton 39¢ |
| 📊 Kalshi | Marshall 64¢, Hamilton 36¢ |
| 📋 Latest poll | Marshall 47%, Hamilton 46% (NYT/Siena, Oct. 7) |
| ⭐ Cook rating | Toss Up |
Kansas is the clearest case of markets and polls pulling in different directions. Hamilton led by two points in a September Emerson poll, and the newest NYT/Siena survey has Marshall up by just one, effectively a tie. Cook moved the race from Lean Republican to a toss-up. Even so, traders keep Marshall above 60¢.
History is doing most of the work in that price. Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and markets tend to give heavy weight to a state's long-term partisan lean when polls are this close. On the other side, Emerson found a majority of Kansas voters disapproving of President Trump's job performance, which helps explain why an outsider candidate has kept the race this tight.
Takeaway: If you believe the polls over the state's history, Kansas is where the market may be most out of step.
Can you bet on the 2026 election?
Yes, through CFTC-regulated prediction markets, which list election outcomes as event contracts rather than traditional bets. Because those contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight instead of state gambling law, traders in most states can take a position on House control, Senate control, and individual races. Interest is high: prediction market users have put close to $200 million into midterm markets this cycle. Our guide to political prediction markets covers the broader category, and the two biggest platforms for midterm trading are below.
Polymarket midterm markets
Polymarket offers one of the deepest midterm lineups available, with contracts on House and Senate control, balance-of-power combinations, Republican seat counts, individual Senate and House races, and governor races. It also lists conditional markets that tie Senate control to outside events like oil prices. US traders access these markets through the Polymarket US app, and availability varies by state, so confirm eligibility before signing up. New users can claim Polymarket's welcome offer with promo code GTODAY: deposit $10 and receive a $25 trading bonus.
Kalshi midterm markets
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange with markets on every 2026 Senate race, House control, and a combined Congress balance-of-power contract. It also lists margin-of-victory and seat-count markets for traders who want something more specific than a straight winner. Kalshi's prices track closely with Polymarket's on most races, usually within a few cents.
Here's how the two platforms compare for midterm trading. For a full breakdown beyond elections, see our Kalshi vs. Polymarket comparison.
| Feature | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Regulation | CFTC-regulated (Polymarket US) | CFTC-regulated exchange |
| 🗳️ Chamber control | House, Senate, balance of power | House, Senate, balance of power |
| 📍 Individual races | Senate, House, and governor races | All 35 Senate races, plus House and governor races |
| 📈 Extra market types | Seat counts, conditional markets tied to economic events | Seat counts, margin of victory |
| 🎁 Welcome offer | Deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus with code GTODAY | See our Kalshi review for current offers |
| 📍 US availability | Varies by state | Most states; check eligibility |
When the same race trades at different prices on the two platforms, our guide to prediction market arbitrage explains when that gap is worth acting on and when fees or settlement differences cancel it out.
How to trade an election market in 5 steps
Whether you want a position on House control or a single Senate seat, the process is nearly identical on every regulated platform. Here's how to go from sign-up to your first midterm trade.
Pick a platform that lists midterm markets
Choose a CFTC-regulated prediction market with the races you care about, such as Polymarket or Kalshi, and confirm it is available in your state before you sign up.
Open and verify your account
Enter your basic details and complete identity verification. You’ll need to clear this step before you can deposit or place a trade.
Add funds
Deposit with one of the platform’s accepted payment methods. If a welcome offer is available, check whether it requires a minimum deposit or a qualifying first trade.
Find your race and read the rules
Search for the contract you want, like Senate control or the Texas Senate race. Read the settlement rules before trading, since they define exactly what counts as a win and when the contract pays out.
Place your trade and manage it
Buy Yes if you think the outcome will happen or No if you don’t, then confirm your amount. You can hold until the race is decided or sell early to lock in a gain or limit a loss.
Are there Vegas odds on the 2026 election?
No. Nevada sportsbooks don't offer odds on US elections, because state gaming regulations prohibit wagering on them. The same is true of legal sportsbooks in every other state, which operate under state gambling licenses that don't cover political outcomes.
The regulated alternative in the US is a prediction market. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi list election contracts under federal CFTC oversight, and their prices work much like odds: a 64¢ contract implies about a 64% chance. You'll also see election lines on offshore sportsbooks, but those sites aren't licensed or regulated in the US, offer no consumer protections, and we don't list or recommend them.
How accurate are election prediction markets?
Prediction markets have a solid but imperfect record. In the 2024 presidential race, major markets priced the eventual winner more confidently than most polling averages did in the final days, and that result drew a lot of attention to market-based forecasting. In the 2022 midterms, though, markets leaned toward Republicans taking the Senate, and Democrats held it. Both outcomes are useful reminders of what these prices are and aren't.
- Prices aren't forecasts. A 60¢ contract means traders collectively see about a 60% chance, so the other side is expected to win roughly four times out of 10.
- Thin markets can misprice. Many state races trade far less volume than chamber control. Polymarket's House control market had about $16.8 million in volume in mid-October, while individual Senate markets like Minnesota had a few hundred thousand dollars, where a handful of large orders can move the price.
- Markets react faster than polls. Prices update the moment news breaks, which is a real advantage, but it also means they can overreact to a single headline before settling back.
We treat market prices as one input alongside polls and race ratings, not a replacement for either.
What the midterms could mean for markets
Control of Congress shapes the legislative agenda on taxes, spending, and regulation, which is why investors watch the midterms closely. A split Congress, where Democrats win the House and Republicans keep the Senate, typically slows major legislation, while a sweep by either party opens the door to bigger policy changes. Traders are already connecting the two worlds: Polymarket lists conditional contracts pairing Senate control with oil price outcomes. For more on how event contracts track rates, inflation, and other economic data, see our economy prediction markets guide. Nothing here is investment advice.
2026 Midterm Elections FAQ
Democrats are strong favorites. As of October 14, 2026, Polymarket priced a Democratic House at 91% and Kalshi at 90%. Democrats also led the generic congressional ballot by close to nine points in the Silver Bulletin average. Prices can still move before Election Day, so check the live market before trading.
Democrats are favored, but by a smaller margin than in the House. Polymarket had a Democratic Senate at 64% and Kalshi at 62% as of October 14, 2026. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, and the outcome likely hinges on toss-up races in Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Kansas.
All 435 voting House seats are on the ballot, and a party needs 218 for a majority. In the Senate, 35 seats are up: 33 regular elections plus special elections in Ohio and Florida. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority.
The 2026 midterm election is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Many states offer early voting and mail ballots in the weeks before, and some close races may not be called on election night, which can keep related prediction market contracts open until results are confirmed.
Yes, through CFTC-regulated prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which list election outcomes as federally regulated event contracts. State-licensed sportsbooks can’t offer election markets. Some states have challenged prediction markets in court, so confirm a platform is available where you live before you sign up.
No. Nevada sportsbooks don’t post odds on US elections because state gaming rules prohibit it, and the same goes for legal sportsbooks in other states. Regulated prediction markets are the legal US alternative. Offshore sites may list election lines, but they aren’t regulated in the US.
Sometimes, but not always. Markets update instantly and outperformed many polling averages in the 2024 presidential race, yet they leaned the wrong way on Senate control in 2022. Smaller state markets can also be thin and volatile. Polls and market prices work best when you use them together.
The contract stays open until the outcome meets the platform’s settlement rules, which usually rely on certified results or a defined official source. Recounts or legal challenges can delay payout. Each market spells out its resolution source and timing, so read the rules before trading a race that could be close.
Both are CFTC-regulated and price most races within a few cents of each other. Polymarket stands out for its range of chamber, seat-count, and conditional markets plus a welcome bonus for new traders. Kalshi lists every 2026 Senate race and margin-of-victory contracts. State availability is often the deciding factor.
You must be at least 18 to open an account on the regulated prediction markets covered on this page, and every platform requires identity verification before you can deposit or trade. Some platforms may set additional eligibility rules, so check the terms during sign-up.
How we source and update this page
Odds on this page come from each platform's own listed markets and are captured as dated snapshots, not a live feed. Polling figures are drawn from published surveys with the pollster and release date noted, and race ratings come from the Cook Political Report. We refresh the numbers regularly through Election Day. For the newest pricing between our updates, check our prediction markets hub or the market page on each platform.
Political neutrality
GamingToday's election coverage is informational only. We don't support any candidate or party, and nothing here is a prediction or recommendation about how a race will turn out. Contract prices reflect trading activity on regulated exchanges, not our editorial view.
Responsible trading and disclosures
Trading on prediction markets carries real financial risk, and no outcome is guaranteed. If trading starts to feel like more than a hobby, help is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org. You must be 18 or older to trade on the platforms covered here.
Affiliate disclosure: Some links on this page may earn GamingToday compensation at no additional cost to you. This doesn't influence our editorial coverage or the accuracy of the information provided.
