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This week’s prediction markets roundup covers five active markets spanning crypto policy, international politics, sports, entertainment and the early 2028 presidential race.
On Polymarket, the Clarity Act‘s odds of becoming law have rebounded after a Senate stumble, the Israel prime minister race has flipped back toward Benjamin Netanyahu, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day has cooled somewhat as a new contender enters the highest-grossing-movie field.
On Kalshi, LeBron James’ surprise move to Philadelphia has scrambled the 2027 NBA champion odds — though not in the direction bettors expected a week ago. Here’s where things stand.
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Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket‘s contract on whether the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year is trading at 47%, a notable rebound after the price had slid into the high 30s earlier this summer. The recovery tracks with real movement in Washington: Senate Republicans released an updated draft on July 22 that revised ethics provisions and clarified regulatory powers, reviving hopes that the bill can reach the floor before the August recess.
The bill — formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or H.R. 3633 — passed the House in July 2025 by a wide bipartisan margin and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May on a narrower 15-9 vote. It still needs to be reconciled with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version, clear a 60-vote floor threshold and be signed by the president.
Key Senate Democrats, including Sens. Angela Alsobrooks and Ruben Gallego, have said their support hinges on stronger ethics guardrails, and Majority Leader John Thune has not yet filed for cloture. Lawmakers widely view this as the bill’s last realistic shot in 2026; failure would likely push final passage into 2027.
The market has traded more than $1.3 million in volume since opening in January and resolves January 1, 2027.
Who will be Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
This race has swung hard in the other direction since the spring. Benjamin Netanyahu now leads at 40%, with Naftali Bennett close behind at 39% — essentially a coin flip between the two. Gadi Eizenkot, who briefly surged past both rivals earlier this year, has fallen back to 11%, and Avigdor Lieberman trails at 7%.
The reversal reflects a tightening seat count between Likud and the Bennett-Lapid “Together” alliance, which recent polling puts at 25 to 26 Knesset seats apiece. Bennett got a lift from the April alliance announcement that consolidated opposition votes, but Netanyahu has held his own in more recent surveys and benefits from a coalition that remains stable after passing its 2026 budget.
Legislative elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, and the market will resolve once a prime minister is formally sworn in.
Total volume on the market has reached $7.4 million.
2027 NBA Champion
The 76ers’ pursuit of LeBron James dominated the NBA offseason — and it didn’t end where bettors expected. Kalshi’s title market briefly priced Miami as a 49% favorite to land James after a since-deleted press-conference link suggested he was headed to South Beach. Instead, James signed a two-year, $8 million deal with Philadelphia on July 24, pairing him with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and newly acquired Jaylen Brown.
The signing vaulted Philadelphia from a 60-1 preseason long shot to the No. 3 favorite, but it still trails the co-favorites: Oklahoma City and San Antonio are each priced at 21% on Kalshi, with Philadelphia at 12% and the defending-champion New York Knicks at 9%. Boston, which dealt Brown to Philadelphia in the trade that set up the LeBron signing, sits at 5%.
Kalshi’s market has traded $17.3 million in volume since opening June 14 — including $226 million on the separate “Which team will LeBron sign with” market that resolved this month.
Highest-grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day remains the favorite to top 2026’s box office, but its lead has narrowed considerably. The Polymarket contract now sits at 59%, down from a high near 83% earlier this month, as bullish pre-release tracking has been offset by a new entrant in the field: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which has climbed to 8.9% on the strength of its spring box office run.
Avengers: Doomsday sits second at 18%, Toy Story 5 has fallen to 3.8%, and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey — despite drawing strong early reviews — has slipped to 2.5%.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens domestically July 31, with tracking suggesting it could post 2026’s biggest opening weekend regardless of where its full-year total lands. The market has traded $7.3 million in volume and resolves based on 2026 domestic grosses reported by Box Office Mojo.
Presidential election winner 2028
More than two years out, this remains the biggest market in the roundup by volume — $581.9 million and counting. JD Vance holds the lead at 18.6%, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom close behind at 16.7% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 14.4%.
The fourth spot has changed hands: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has moved into it at 5.3%, edging out former Vice President Kamala Harris (5.2%) and pushing Sen. Jon Ossoff, who was in the top tier earlier this year, down to roughly 3.6%.
Vance’s price has drifted from highs near 32% late last year, in part as Rubio’s diplomatic visibility — including joint appearances with Vance at the Winter Olympics — has chipped into his standing. With the 2026 midterms still ahead and no shortage of time for the field to reshuffle, this is a market likely to keep moving.
