2024 Men’s March Madness Underdog Odds: Top Five Picks to Make a Cinderella Run

With tipoff of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Baketball Tournament’s Round of 64 upon us, let’s talk about five candidates for a Cinderella run in this year’s Big Dance. A year ago, the Final Four featured one team seeded fourth or better — eventual national champ UConn — two 5-seeds (Miami and San Diego State), and nine-seed Florida Atlantic.

It’s hard to imagine another year with so many underdogs shaking up March Madness to that extent, but there are several teams worth keeping an eye on. For this piece, let’s look at squads with a 5-seed or lower that could make some noise, not just during the opening weekend of action, but beyond.

More: March Madness Odds | Best March Madness Sportsbook Promos and Bonuses | How to Bet on March Madness Games, Futures, and Props

New Mexico Lobos (11-Seed, West)

• Best Sweet 16 odds:
• Best Elite 8 odds:
• Best Final 4 odds: 

The Mountain West Conference got some respect from the NCAA Tournament Committee in the form of a league-record six bids, but that included several teams that received surprisingly low seeds given their regular season accomplishments. New Mexico tops the list of MWC teams with legitimate gripes about their seeding after a 26-win season. In fact, the Lobos enter the tournament with so much respect that they’re favored () over 6-seed Clemson in the opening round on Friday.

New Mexico’s backcourt of sophomore Donovan Dent, senior Jaelen House, and senior Jamal Mashburn Jr. is the biggest reason to believe this team can go on a run. All three average at least 14 points per game and are adept at getting to the rim. Mashburn, whose father starred at Kentucky and in the NBA, is not the only one with NBA genes, either, as freshman JT Toppin’s older brother, Obi, was a top-10 draft pick in 2020 who is currently with the Indiana Pacers.

The Lobos’ Sweet 16 odds, at shorter than 3-to-1 entering the tournament, show oddsmakers’ recognition that this team is capable of a deep run, though 3-seed Baylor and 2-seed Arizona would both be tough opponents to get through in the Round of 32 and the Sweet 16.

BYU Cougars (6-Seed, East)

• Best Sweet 16 odds:
• Best Elite 8 odds:
• Best Final 4 odds:

BYU is as dangerous from 3-point range as anyone in this tournament, which makes the Cougars an intriguing longshot to win multiple games. Coach Mark Pope has built a unique roster featuring seven players, including 6-foot-10 forward Aly Khalifa, who attempt at least three 3-pointers per game, and five of them shoot at least 35% from downtown (Jaxson Robinson, Trevin Knell, Noah Waterman, Davin Hall, Richie Saunders).

If all that shooting didn’t make this team a tough enough matchup already, four of those players are at least 6-foot-5. BYU is also as battle-tested as anyone after going 10-8 in its first season in the Big 12, with wins over 2-seed Iowa State, 3-seed Baylor, and 4-seed Kansas.

3-seed Illinois and familiar foe Iowa State (BYU beat the Cyclones 87-72 at home and lost to them 68-63 in Ames) are the favorites to stand in BYU’s way in the second and third rounds if the Cougars get by Duquesne on Thursday.

Oregon Ducks (11-Seed, Midwest)

• Best Sweet 16 odds:
• Best Elite 8 odds:
• Best Final 4 odds:

The case for the Ducks starts with the run they just made through the Pac-12 Tournament. Oregon won the conference championship as the 4-seed in the tourney with a run that included victories over UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado.

The two biggest reasons to keep an eye on the Ducks, though, are coach Dana Altman and 6-foot-11 senior center N’Faly Dante. This would not be the Ducks’ first “Cinderella” run under Altman, who led Oregon to the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed in 2019 and took the Ducks back to the Sweet 16 as a 7-seed in 2021.

Injuries limited Dante to 20 games this season, but he’s been dominant when healthy. Dante, who averages 16 points and 11 rebounds per game, won Pac-12 Tournament MVP with averages of better than 20 points and 8 rebounds per game in the Ducks’ run to the title. Few teams in the country have any answer to a player with Dante’s size and athletic ability.

The Ducks do, however, face a tough path. It starts with first-round foe South Carolina (26-7, 13-5 SEC), which drastically exceeded expectations in the SEC. Looking further ahead, possible matchups with 3-seed Creighton and then 2-seed Tennessee would require arguably Altman’s most impressive NCAA Tournament magic yet (though Tennessee’s recent struggles in March make the Vols hard to trust).

Gonzaga Bulldogs (5-Seed, Midwest)

• Best Sweet 16 odds:
• Best Elite 8 odds:
• Best Final 4 odds:

You won’t win big betting on Gonzaga to reach the Sweet 16, and you’ll get plenty of eye rolls if this is the team you come up with when asked for your Cinderella candidate, but as the 5-seed in the Midwest, Mark Few’s Bulldogs technically belong in this piece. After entering the last six NCAA Tournaments as a 4-seed or better (including as 1-seed in ’17, ’19, ’21, and ’22), this year’s team enters March flying under the radar after a rough start to the year.

Gonzaga struggled in non-conference play, with losses to Purdue, Washington, Connecticut, and San Diego State. But a roster that Few was forced to overhaul last summer has hit its stride since January. The Bulldogs are 15-3 since Jan. 4, with the only losses coming to Santa Clara and WCC champ Saint Mary’s (twice). This team has the size (top scorers Graham Ike and Anton Watson are both talented scorers in the paint) and experience (freshmen Dusty Stromer and Braden Huff are the only underclassmen in the rotation) to make a run in the Midwest Region.

The case for Gonzaga is that much stronger given what appears to be a favorable bracket: 4-seed Kansas is without star guard Kevin McCullar, and 1-seed Purdue has had all sorts of trouble in this tournament the last few years. The Bulldogs also have to like their chances against the Boilermakers after hanging with Purdue until the final minutes when these teams met in January — Gonzaga trailed just 56-53 with less than seven minutes to play before falling by a final score of 73-63.

NC State Wolfpack (11-Seed, South)

• Best Sweet 16 odds:
• Best Final 4 odds:

Saving the best most “why not?” option for last, let’s talk about the ACC Tournament champs (and please don’t ask me when, why, or how I got so bullish on these 11-seeds). The Pack’s historic five-wins-in-five-days run to the ACC title has plenty of college hoops fans, in the Tar Heel State and beyond, viewing this team as an intriguing longshot. In fact, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing, NC State is the most-bet team to reach the Sweet 16.

State’s path features a tough first-round opponent, a Texas Tech team that beat both Baylor and Kansas by double-digits. The second round would likely pit NC State against one of the highest-upside teams in the country, John Calipari’s 3-seeded Kentucky Wildcats. But after watching Wolfpack big man DJ Burns win ACC Tournament MVP with dominant nights against Virginia in the ACC Tournament semis and North Carolina in the final, it’s hard to deny State’s status as — at minimum — a fun underdog to embrace in the NCAA Tournament.

READ MORE:

• Duke March Madness Odds: Blue Devils Futures & Betting Lines
• North Carolina March Madness Odds: Tar Heels Futures & Betting Lines
• 2024 March Madness Schedule: Best Live Odds for Men’s College Basketball First Round