Marquette-NC State Odds, Predictions: March Madness Sweet 16

Three of the four Sweet 16 teams in the South Region of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament were expected to make it this far. Joining 1-seed Houston, 2-seed Marquette, and 4-seed Duke in the South Region semifinals is 11-seed NC State, which seeks yet another upset on Friday night against veteran 2-seed Marquette.

Marquette-NC State tips off at 7:09 p.m. ET on CBS on Friday night. Most oddsmakers list the Wolfpack as either a 6- or 6.5-point underdog against the Golden Eagles.

Here, we will break down the Marquette vs NC State odds and predictions.

Marquette (27-9, 14-6 Big East) is a legitimate Final Four candidate after finishing second in the Big East despite a late-season injury that sidelined star point guard Tyler Kolek for multiple weeks. The Golden Eagles started the ’23-24 season ranked No. 5 in the AP preseason poll after returning Kolek, Kam Jones, and big man Oso Ighodaro from a team that won 29 games and earned a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament in 2023.

NC State is the biggest underdog (24-11, 9-11 ACC) left in the field, but the Pack is gaining oddsmakers’ respect after winning seven games in a row to reach the Sweet 16. State’s roller-coaster season featured a four-game losing streak to end the regular season followed by a stunning ACC Tournament Championship run that included wins over Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Let’s get into the matchup and give our best Marquette vs NC State betting pick.

Marquette Golden Eagles Betting Preview

Marquette has everything a team needs for a deep run in March Madness, from national assist leader Kolek at point guard to a number of quality scorers in Jones, Ighodaro, and 6-foot-7 forward David Joplin. The latter is one of five Marquette players who shoot at least 36% from 3-point land. If there’s one player State should be most worried about, it’s Kolek (who averages nearly 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists per game), but one of Marquette’s biggest strengths is its balance.

The Pack has been able to force one opponent after another into a bad shooting night during its winning streak but faces a unique challenge against the Golden Eagles, whose best shooters also attack the rim. State will need another great effort defensively and on the glass — and it probably also needs Marquette to struggle to knock down open looks from outside — to make it eight wins in a row.

NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview

Everything for NCSU starts with 6-foot-9, 275-pound big man DJ Burns, who’s been unstoppable in the paint in March. He’s coming off a memorable 24-point, 11-rebound, 4-assist performance in the Round of 32, and he’s had at least 19 points in three of NC State’s last four games. Burns’ ability to beat 1-on-1 coverage with his size and soft touch and find the open man when double-teamed makes NC State’s offense go. How Marquette guards him looms as one of the biggest questions in this matchup.

Coach Kevin Keatts has relied on just seven players throughout the Pack’s run, but he’s gotten big contributions from each one. Big men Mo Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks have attacked the glass to complement Burns, while guards Casey Morsell, Michael O’Connell, and Jayden Taylor have all provided good defense and timely shooting. NC State’s top scoring option on the year, guard DJ Horne, was held to just 11 points against Oakland but came up with a huge bucket and an assist in overtime as State pulled away in the extra period.

Rebounding has been a huge part of this team’s recipe for success in recent weeks, and if Marquette has one weakness, it’s on the boards (the Golden Eagles are 270th or worse nationally in offensive, defensive, and total rebounds per game). That could prove to be the difference, as it’s one of State’s few advantages, at least on paper.

Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marquette’s last 10 games.

NCSU is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NCSU’s last 10 games.

Additional notes on NC State:

The Pack is 5-1 ATS in its last six, beating the spread by at least 16 in four of those games.
The total has gone OVER in each of NCSU’s last four games.

If these teams played 10 times, few would argue with the notion that Marquette would win at least 5 of those. But this would not be the first team State has beaten lately that appeared to have a decided talent advantage.

State has limited its last five opponents — Duke, UVA, and UNC in the ACC Tournament, and Texas Tech and Oakland in the NCAAT — to 41-for-144 shooting (28%) from 3-point land. If it can defend the 3-point line that well again on Friday night, this one should come down to the wire. The other path to victory for NC State involves bludgeoning the Golden Eagles on the boards.

Marquette, like every other Wolfpack opponent the last couple weeks, does not have one player that can shut down Burns, but the other mismatches in this game favor Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles. Morsell and Taylor are good defenders, but can they combine to shut down Kolek? And is it possible for State to keep Kolek in check while also limiting Jones, Ighodaro, and the rest of this lineup? There’s a reason Kolek averages almost 8 dimes per game.

A Marquette victory feels like the most likely outcome, but it’s hard to see the Eagles winning with ease.

Prediction: Marquette to advance

Marquette vs NC State Betting Pick: NC State , (+7 at time of publishing)