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Mick Mulvaney, former acting White House chief of staff under President Donald Trump, has his sights set on a specific opponent: prediction markets.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have recently dominated the wagering landscape. According to a Bloomberg Opinion report, these platforms have increasingly allowed users to bet on highly sensitive global developments, including Super Bowl props and the potential for war in Iran.
While supporters argue these platforms are information tools rather than gambling outlets, Mulvaney is spearheading a push to have them governed by state gambling laws. He is joined by several prominent Republicans, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, who have echoed calls to rein in the industry.
The legal gray area of event-based betting
Much of what currently allows prediction markets to operate as gambling-adjacent platforms is a lack of regulatory clarity. At the federal level, these markets are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and treated as investment derivatives. This distinguishes them from traditional gambling outlets overseen by state boards or the National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC).
Through his advocacy group, Gambling Is Not Investing, Mulvaney hopes to tighten regulations on markets that have operated with significant freedom since 2025. However, the industry’s legal standing has shifted frequently over the last few years.
From Biden-era fines to Trump-era growth
The industry has faced significant federal scrutiny in the past. According to a report by Yahoo Finance, the Biden administration’s CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million in Jan. 2022 for offering event-based binary options and failing to register as a swap execution facility (SEF). At that time, the company was ordered to cease operations that did not comply with the Commodity Exchange Act.
Under the current administration, deregulatory priorities have taken center stage. Litigation between the CFTC and Polymarket was halted in 2025, alongside various investigations. Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan was even invited to a White House crypto summit earlier this year.
The Trump administration has maintained a friendly posture toward these platforms. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, holds investments in the latter. Because the Trump family is so enmeshed in the industry, Mulvaney’s group may face an uphill battle in its efforts to “untangle” these ties.
Can Mulvaney influence the new CFTC?
Mulvaney is hoping his personal ties to the administration will help his group find a middle ground on regulation. However, CFTC Chair Michael Selig—who was appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate in a 53-43 vote—has expressed skepticism.
While 23 Democratic lawmakers recently sent the CFTC a letter urging the agency to allow pending cases to play out in court, Selig has resisted. He remains firm that prediction markets are properly classified under CFTC jurisdiction rather than state gambling commissions.
