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LAS VEGAS — The nation’s sportsbooks, as usual, got richer last weekend during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.The bemoaning from bettors, like late-night howls from starving wolves, could be heard steadily from early Thursday morning and deep into Sunday evening.One blip, though, did go the way of the punters. One game might have gone a long way in preventing a clean-sweep, pocket-picking by the books.
On Friday night, top-seeded Purdue was about a 23-point favorite against No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson in Columbus, Ohio, but the Boilers lost outright, 63-58.Shown on TNT, its 4.37 million viewers represented the highest first-round rating on cable television since Turner Sports became involved in March Madness in 2011.In 2018, Maryland-Baltimore County became the first 16th-seeded squad to upend a No. 1 seed. FDU became the second such super underdog.
One Vegas sportsbook reported that 78 percent of the tickets it wrote for that game were written on Fairleigh’s moneyline, around a 20-to-1 payoff.At DraftKings, director of race and sports Johnny Avello was blunt.“I can tell you that was one game in which we got destroyed,” he said Monday. “That was the day we lost. Things didn’t go well the entire day. That game right there. I can pin a good portion [of that day’s losses] on that one, yeah.”Vegas handicapper Steve Fezzik, though, did misdiagnose that one in a very big — and very public — way, which we’ll address below.
Since DraftKings operates in 22 states, its profits might have dizzied someone with less experience than the 70-year-old Avello, who began writing tickets in Vegas at the Dunes in 1985. Oddsmaking and director gigs followed at Bally’s and Wynn Las Vegas, and he shifted to DraftKings in 2018.“Three of those four days were very good,” he said. “For DraftKings, yes, it was terrific. ”Like last week, Avello expects cash to flood his software early the day games will be played this week for the regional semis and finals. “Most of the money comes in the day of the game,” he said. “Prior to that, yeah, there’s some little drips and drabs, but there’s nobody firing big money prior to the [game days]. Once we get there, wow!”
Arkansas vs. UConn Betting Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total
It will be a watershed moment on Thursday at about 7:15 p.m. ET when Arkansas and Connecticut tip off here inside T-Mobile Arena.
The NCAA will officially be in bed — in a money-making venture — with Sin City. If only Jerry Tarkanian, the late UNLV coach who battled NCAA bees for decades, were alive to behold the turn of events.At 84, the beloved towel-chompin’ gnome-like hoops coach known as Tark the Shark died in 2015. His teams played in 18 NCAA Tournaments. The Rebels advanced to four Final Fours. They won it all in Denver in 1990, thrashing Duke, 103-73, in a title-game victory margin that still stands as a record.
“Two [West semifinal] games here in Vegas, then the West Regional final,” Avello said. “It’s nice to have that, for the first time in history. I love it. We’ve been doing conference tournaments for a while, and now we get a regional final. ”And Allegiant Stadium and Vegas will play host to the Final Four in 2028. “I think it’s fantastic.”
Princeton vs. Creighton Betting Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total
Princeton, seeded 15th, upended No. 2 Arizona, 59-55, on Thursday as a +750-ish moneyline underdog.
The Tigers showed they’re no flukes on Saturday when they doused 7-seed Missouri, 78-63. They were about +230 moneyline dogs against Mizzou. They are the Cinderella story still alive in the NCAAs.Princeton (23-8) is getting 10 points, a moneyline dog of roughly +425, on Friday night against Creighton (23-12) in a South Regional semifinal.
In 1967 — or 18 NCAAs ago for the Tigers — they played in a regional semifinal for the sixth time, which was the third under coach Butch van Breda Kolff. They got here three times under previous boss Cappy Cappon. They’re 0-6 at this stage.Legendary hoops maestro Pete Carril partook in 11 NCAAs, winning twice. In 1983, Princeton beat North Carolina A&T in a play-in at The Palestra and then defeated Oklahoma State, 56-53, in Oregon before losing to Boston College.Perhaps the most famous Tigers’ victory arrived in 1996 when they caught Charles O’Bannon in a double-backdoor cut and won, 43-41, beating defending national champion UCLA. Carril promptly retired.
This Princeton iteration has covered nine of its past 11 games, and nine of 13 have sailed over their total. The Blue Jays have covered five of six, and five of seven have gone Over. So, this should be a fun one on Friday at 9 p.m. on TBS.
Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee Betting Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total
Avello did not include No. 9 Florida Atlantic in that storybook storyline.
“Florida Atlantic is a good team,” he said. “They were fortunate enough to have Fairleigh Dickinson knock off the one seed, which gave them a much softer game.”The 2.5-point underdog FAU Owls eked by Memphis, 66-65, in the first round and then handled Fairleigh, 78-70, on Sunday in Columbus.FAU (33-3) is about a 5.5-point dog on Thursday against Tennessee (25-10) at Madison Square Garden in New York.Both teams’ defensive metrics conquer the other side’s offensive options, which is a rock-fight recipe.
“I still think the Owls are a problem team in the tournament,” Avello said. “Can they win it all? Yes. It’s going to be difficult, but their road to winning another game or two is possible. “They’re not that big of an underdog. They’ve had a tremendous year, they’re playing Tennessee, and it isn’t a huge point spread. Our power ratings say they’re a quality team.”
Another Thriller?
The marquee event of the Sweet 16 might be UCLA (31-5) giving about 1.5 points vs. Gonzaga (30-5) in Thursday’s second game, with a 9:45 p.m. ET start on CBS here at T-Mobile.x
The Zags own a 5-2 record against UCLA, who are the country’s most successful program with 11 national championships.In the NCAAs, Gonzaga is 2-1 against the Bruins, with their last meeting being that 93-90 overtime thriller that the Zags claimed two years ago in a national semifinal in Indianapolis.Remember, the Bruins were a play-in squad so that represented their sixth consecutive tourney tilt. Had they escaped that game victoriously, I contend they would have won national title No. 12 against Baylor.
Of course, ifs and buts… In 2015, the Zags beat the Bruins, 74-62, in a South Regional semifinal in Houston. And in 2006, UCLA won, 73-71, in a West Regional semifinal in Oakland.Currently, Gonzaga has failed to cover three of its past four games, while the Bruins have covered the number in five of their past seven.
Stars Rebound
Some figure this tourney is destined to pit Alabama (31-5) against Houston (33-3) in the Cougars’ backyard on the first Monday of April.If that occurs, owe it to both of their stars awakening in the second round.Brandon Miller, the Crimson Tide’s 6-foot-9 freshman silky scorer from Tennessee, scored no points in Bama’s triumphant opener against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. A groin tweak was to blame as he went 0-of-2 from two-point range and 0-of-3 beyond the arc in 19 minutes.
On Saturday, he provided 19 points and seven rebounds in 34 minutes in Houston’s thrashing of Maryland.Marcus Sasser, Houston’s 6-2 senior scorer from Dallas, dropped in one two-point shot and one three-pointer in 14 minutes on Thursday against Northern Kentucky. He had appeared to aggravate his own previous groin injury. However, he bounced back on Saturday with 22 points in 31 minutes in a trouncing of Auburn. The Tide has been bumped to an 8-point favorite — from a DraftKings opening line of 7 — against San Diego State (29-6) on Friday night (6:30 p.m., TBS) in Louisville.
Also on Friday (7:15 p.m., CBS), Houston is favored by 7 against Miami (27-7) in Kansas City, Mo. Last week in Birmingham, Miller was accompanied by an armed guard and public backlash doesn’t figure to quell this week in Louisville for Alabama’s soft treatment of him in the wake of a murder.A former teammate and another man were indicted on capital murder charges.
On Monday, Tide football coach Nick Saban publicly rebuked Alabama hoops boss Nate Oats for the milquetoast manner in which he has dealt with Miller.However, new details, according to Sports Illustrated, appear to weaken Miller’s involvement. On the court, Avello referred to Miller, but he could have easily included Sasser when he said a team winning without its star is a very good sign.“That’s what you like to see, a team winning when things don’t go well. That means maybe it’ll go well for you the next game, and that’s exactly what happened,” Avello said. “If you can win when everything isn’t going well, good for you. The next game, you’ll probably put it together. But you’ve got to win six games. It isn’t about two games, it’s about six.”
Fezz Fizzles
Professional handicapperSteve Fezzik provided a successful play to us in this space a week ago, so I inquired about a return pick for the Sweet 16. He did so and added, “I’d avoid -4500 moneylines.”That’s $45 to win a buck. Or, in his case, $45,000 to win a grand.He went very public with his bold action last week on that Purdue moneyline — $60,000 for a return of roughly $1,300 — against upstart Fairleigh Dickinson. https://twitter.com/FezzikSports/status/1636757804391501830 Of that investment, $40,000 had been locked in at Circa Sports and $20,000 elsewhere.
Of course, the Knights became the second 16-seed to upend a top seed. Cue Fezzik being treated like a social media piñata for a few days. That trashing might continue today.The machinations of professional bettors will forever intrigue me, and it’s unusual to get such a straightforward response as Fezzik provided over the phone on Monday morning. “Everyone is a critic, Rob,” he said. “Everyone is a critic.”He spoke in a customary self-deprecating manner. “I make bad bets all the time, no doubt about it. I will risk -2000 on something that’s a certainty. It’s all about the probability of something happening, like Tiger Woods to not win the Masters. I will be all over that bet. The NO will have tremendous value. “You have to be able to assess probabilities. ”Obviously, he admitted, he didn’t do such a good job with the Purdue wager.
First, he said, he erred in risking 5 percent of a bankroll. I know many pros who swear by limiting their wagers to 1 bankroll percent, 2 percent once in a blue moon, say, on a confident baseball play.“I probably made a bigger bet than I was really comfortable in losing,” he said. “Second, I probably shouldn’t have tweeted it out, because some Joe at a bar might put his whole bankroll on it. “So that is my biggest regret. I should have caveated it. ”Lastly, he’s been winning and doing very well. In fact, as that Purdue debacle unfolded, he partook in live-betting the other way to recoup about $23,000 of that boondoggle. But it required much effort because the maximum allowed in live and/or halftime betting is typically low.
A $1,000 parlay tying FDU to the second-half Under helped in his recovery scramble.Fezzik can be counted on for keen insights, trends, and much more on various platforms — like Bernie Fratto’s superb weekend overnight show on Fox Sports Radio.If anyone does wish to get personal, he dangled a proposition offer — that he’d finish the year in the black on his Circa account. Contact him, or find him at Circa, to work out the details.“I’d more than welcome it,” he said.
Sisyphian SDSU
At San Diego State, success in the NCAAs has been a grind. It was 0-3 until Steve Fisher came along when it lost three more first-round games.In 2011 (to UConn in Anaheim) and ’14 (to Arizona, again in Anaheim), it lost at this stage in the regional semifinals. Longtime Fisher lieutenant Brian Dutcher took over the Aztecs program in 2017.The Aztecs have never appeared in a regional final, which is the major reason why, months ago, I nabbed an 18-1 ticket on the alma mater to reach the Final Four — not to win it all. For this program, reaching a national semifinal would be akin to a crown.
Overall, SDSU is 9-14 lifetime in the NCAAs. Bama is 1-8 in regional semifinals, having defeated Syracuse in 2004 under coach Mark Gottfried before losing the West Regional final — and a trip to the Final Four — to UConn in Phoenix.This is the first time the teams have met. “San Diego State coaches and players change, but that program usually puts a quality team together,” Avello said. “They’re no strangers to the tournament. And seven, seven-and-a-half point underdogs win outright every single night of the week in college basketball. “You might expect at least one or two of those underdogs to win this upcoming weekend.”
March Madness Unders are Rolling
Avello tied the Aztecs to a theme of the first week of the tourney that Unders are 32-16.“You can go back 10 to 15 years, and you’ll find they’re an Under team,” Avello said. “That’s always been their style down there.”Indeed, since 2008, SDSU games finished Under at a 56.1-percent clip, which is the best among teams remaining in the tournament and 13th in college hoops. Tennessee (55.8 percent) is next at 16th overall.
Xavier (22-13-1, .629) games finish Over most frequently. Texas, the Musketeers’ opponent Friday at 9:45 p.m. on CBS in K.C., has covered seven of its past nine. Meanwhile, Xavier is only 2-4 against the number (ATS) in its past six. Of the 16 remaining teams, Kansas State (23-11, .677) is tops ATS this season. On the other end, Gonzaga (13-20-1, .394) is the worst ATS team.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Expert Picks
Our exclusive panelists went 5-6 last week, so victors were offered return invitations this week to pick their favorite Sweet 16 selections.In Florida, pro ’capper John Murges has been impressed with Sasser, but he has also liked the artillery provided by Miami’s 6-4 junior guard Isaiah Wong (ACC player of the year) and 6-7 senior swingman Jordan Miller. So Murges moved early on nabbing the Hurricanes +7.5, and he’s “sprinkling a bit” on the Canes’ moneyline of about +260.“Plus, this Hurricanes team is really playing some good ball for 73-year-old coach Jim Larranaga,” Murges said. “The players like and respect him, and it really shows on the court.”Fezzik took Under on the Miami-Houston 138 total.Vegas capper Chuck Edel nabbed UCLA -2 against the Zags. He gives the Bruins’ vast experience an edge and sees UCLA’s premier defenders “causing problems for this Gonzaga team.”
He notes that the Zags are 2-5 this season when scoring fewer than 75 points, so he’s banking on such a clampdown by the Bruins.Since Dec. 1, only one of 29 UCLA foes — USC, in a 77-64 home triumph over the Bruins on Jan. 26 — has tallied at least 75 points.
Finally, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network reports, again, with multiple selections because he’s a generous Indiana native.He moved early at Circa and DraftKings to get Florida Atlantic +5.5 against Tennessee, and he split one unit evenly between the Aztecs +8 and Under 137.5 in San Diego State-Alabama.Against the Owls, he sees Tennessee’s offense without a true point-guard rudder regressing. He watched those Owls bully young Dukies, and he especially likes the mettle of Johnell Davis, a 6-4 sophomore from Gary, Ind.Youmans believes that élite San Diego State defense is athletic and long enough to disrupt Brandon Miller, “by far the best player on the floor,” he said, “[who] probably puts the Tide over the top in a tight game.”Bookmark these:March Madness odds | Best sports betting apps | Best sports betting bonuses
