Early public betting in NFL Week 13 backs the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders.
The Titans opened at +6.5 against the host Philadelphia Eagles at DraftKings. A wave of Tennessee cash slammed that number to +5 by late Tuesday.
The Jets opened +3.5 against the host Minnesota Vikings. After a swarm of Jets bettors said “Thank you for the hook,” that number went down to +3.
And the last-place Commanders opened -1 against the host New York Giants, who lead them in the NFC East. But the gamblers believe Washington is riding the hot hand of a 6-0-1 surge against the spread. They drove the Commanders all the way up to -2.5 on Tuesday.
That’s still a good number for Washington bettors and a wait-and-see spot for Giants backers, who figure to weigh in if the number hits +3.
Those games will gain increased focus after the excellent Thursday night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and host New England Patriots opens the slate.
Bigger Bets Back Patriots
At DraftKings, this has been an interesting wagering dynamic. The Bills at -4 took 75% of the early spread tickets but only 58% of the spread handle. The Patriots garnered just 25% of the spread tickets but 42% of the spread handle.
This means that while the overall sentiment rides with Buffalo, some big wagers have been placed on New England.
Laying the Points With Deshaun Watson in Houston
The public has also backed the Cleveland Browns with 90% handle at -7 against the host Houston Texans. This game marks the return from an 11-game suspension by former Texan Deshaun Watson. Is it cruel irony or Hollywood script that places Watson against his former mates?
The public thus far believes Watson will be sharp enough for the 4-7 Browns, who meet the 1-9-1 Texans.
Houston has under-achieved, even by the modest standards expected. If the team was going to wake up and play a game, this is it. As of midweek, the bettors don’t expect that to happen.
While those games, along with a matchup between the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. add intrigue, the NFC East provides a story of resilience.
Betting on The Beast
The NFC East, unofficially re-named “The Beast” in many betting circles, commands a high Week 13 wagering spotlight.
The once-derided collection of the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Giants, and Commanders has become the best division in football. At a combined 32-13, all four teams would make the playoffs, as of now.
It won’t play out that way because the teams must face each other a few times down the stretch, but what a preamble into Week 13.
Commanders-Giants Balance Public Sentiment
How good is this division? The last-place Commanders, 7-5, own a three-game win streak.
That’s what brings attention to a highly-awaited matchup between the Giants and Commanders.
As one might suspect, bettors can’t easily decide between these two hot teams.
The line of Washington -2.5 essentially has bettors split down the middle. A small 51% of DraftKings bettors favor the Giants, although that margin would expand if the line moves to Washington -3.
One thing the bettors agree upon is the prospect of a low-scoring game. The under 40.5 total is supported by 78% of the early handle.
Giants and Commanders Are Favorite Sons of Bettors
NFC East bettors essentially observe an awards ceremony between two of their favored clients.
The Commanders and Giants have returned beaucoup bucks to their backers since early in the season.
For Washington, the defense never rests.
It has been the backbone of the team’s rise from 1-4 to 7-5, and the spread-covering spree that bettors gleefully pocketed.
The defense bookended this run.
It began in Week 6, when Washington halted a Chicago Bears team that had first-and-goal at the Commanders’ five-yard line in the final minute. That stand preserved a 12-7 triumph.
The D capped Washington’s seven-week march in Week 12.
Washington looked cooked in the final minute against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta had first-and-goal at the Washington two yard-line, trailing 19-13. But Washington dumped Marcus Mariota for a one-yard loss. That prompted a play-selection change, and Mariota’s next pass was a tipped pick in the end zone.
This team is doing everything right, especially in the final minute.
The last time Washington failed to cover was in a 25-10 loss to the Cowboys. That was back on Oct. 2. By the time it takes the field Sunday, Washington will have gone more than two months without missing a cover (a 20-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Nov. 6 was a push).
Bettors have been happy with the Giants, too.
Big Blue has provided Big Green to gamblers.
New York is on a 6-2 spread-covering run. Fourth-quarter rallies against the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens supplied upset victories. A goal-line stand against the Jacksonville Jaguars provided another.
The G-Men delivered a turkey wishbone to bettors who took them between +8.5 and +10 against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. What’s more gratifying than a touchdown for a back-door cover with eight seconds remaining? That’s what Giants bettors got in the 28-20 setback.
NFC East gamblers essentially observe an awards ceremony between two of their favored clients.
The Commanders and Giants have returned beaucoup bucks to their backers since early in the season.
A Look Back at Week 12
One can only dream of timing the market bottom and notching a huge payday.
NFL bettors launch these dreams all the time. And some are answered.
The best asked-and-answered live bet came in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Baltimore Ravens game.
When the Jags trailed 27-20 on their last possession, they faced 3rd-and-21 from their own 14. No timeouts. And no hope, presumably.
At DraftKings, the Jags were +2600 to win the game.
Outlandish odds? Sure. But not much different than tossing a pair of dice and hoping the 2 or 12 come out at odds of 29-to-1. These things happen once in a while.
This was the NFL version of once in a while.
Several unexpected developments occurred in sequence.
And the best two were saved for last. The Jags scored and tried an all-or-nothing two-point conversion after scoring a TD. They got all and led, 28-27.
They still had to wait out one more kick. Justin Tucker’s 67-yard, game-stealing field goal as time expired was just one yard short. That’s when the Jacksonville moneyline bettors finally breathed.
For anyone who made this wager, what a payday!
And there were others, along the parlay line, according to DraftKings.
In the Monday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts, one bettor was able to turn a $5 bet into a $4,055 payout on a nine-leg same game parlay. The SGP had an 80% profit boost, and the winning legs were:
• Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer
• PIT Steelers Moneyline
• Matt Ryan Under 274.5 Passing Yards
• Kenny Pickett Under 269.5 Passing Yards
• Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer
• George Pickens Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
• Michael Pittman Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer
• Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards
• Yannick Ngakoue 1+ Sacks
One bettor placed $5 on a 6-leg SGP with a 50% profit boost that paid out $11,255. The winning legs were:
• AJ Brown Anytime TD Scorer
• AJ Dillon Anytime TD Scorer
• Christian Watson Anytime TD Scorer
• Miles Sanders Anytime TD Scorer
• Quez Watkins Anytime TD Scorer
• Aaron Jones Anytime TD Scorer
This game displayed the magic of parlay betting. The wager needed three touchdowns from individuals on both teams. Separately, these bets pay relatively small. But put them together and that’s quite a wallop for five bucks.
One gambler perhaps notched the ultimate Prayers Answered Parlay.
This was a $50 bet on an 11-leg parlay with a payout of $63,166.09. The legs were:
• CIN Bengals Moneyline
• NY Jets -8
• CLE Browns +3.5
• MIA Dolphins -14
• WAS Commanders -3.5
• JAX Jaguars +3
• ARI Cardinals +2.5
• LV Raiders +4
• SF 49ers -9
• KC Chiefs -15.5
• PHI Eagles -6.5
How many things had to fall right? Many.
Washington had to stave off the Atlanta Falcons, first and goal at the 2, with a six-point lead in the final minute.
The Jags needed that miracle sequence coming out of the 3rd-and-21 scenario.
The Cardinals needed the Los Angeles Chargers to seek the two-point conversion, rather than select overtime, after notching a game-tying touchdown in the waning seconds.
The Chiefs had to kick a covering-winning field goal in the last two minutes to cover by half a point. They could have just run the ball into the line and be content with a 23-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Fortunately for this bettor, the Chiefs put three more on the board.
The Eagles had to survive by half a point, beating the Packers, 40-33.
The Niners needed to have a Saints receiver put his arms around a fumble in the end zone, but lose it.
They never just hand you $63,166.09. If just one of these scenarios had been different, the bet loses.
Al Michaels would have loved this one. Do You Believe in Miracles? YES!
Betting a Little To Win a Lot
One user placed $2 on a 10-leg SGP that paid out $1,202 with the following legs:
• LA Chargers Moneyline
• Austin Ekeler Anytime TD Scorer
• James Conner Anytime TD Scorer
• Keenan Allen Anytime TD Scorer
• Kyler Murray Anytime TD Scorer
• Deandre Hopkins Anytime TD Scorer
• Justin Herbert Over 254.5 Passing Yards
• Kyler Murray Under 274.5 Passing Yards
• Austin Ekeler Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
• Kyler Murray 25+ Rushing Yards
This bettor placed a 4-leg parlay for $25 and paid out $10,719.36. The winning legs were:
• JAX Jaguars Moneyline
• LA Chargers: To Win By 1-6
• LV Raiders: To Win By 1-6
• PHI Eagles: To Win By 7-12
This last user placed $20 on a 2-leg parlay with +34100 odds that paid out $6,840. The two legs were:
• ATL Falcons @ WAS Commanders – Half Time / Full Time – Tie / WAS Commanders
• CIN Bengals @ TEN Titans – Half Time / Full Time – Tie / CIN Bengals
You can take chances on longshot outcomes if there is not too much money wagered upfront.
This was a nice hit.
Glances around the board present opportunities that may linger, and then vanish.
Value still exists for Super Bowl futures with the Chiefs favored to win it all at +400 at Caesars Sportsbook. The Bills are +450 and a buying opportunity for those who liked this team when it was +190 and then slumped.
The Philadelphia Eagles remain steady at +600, while the San Francisco 49ers at +900 and the Miami Dolphins at +1400 maintain value.
See them all: Odds to win Super Bowl 57
Where the Train has Left the Station
Patrick Mahomes is now in minus numbers as the MVP favorite.
Behind him, Jalen Hurts of the Eagles remains bettable at +400, especially with the Eagles needing his leadership in the absence of valued tight end Dallas Goedert.
Tua Tagovailoa has soared to +500, recognition of his value with the Dolphins. They have won every game he started and finished this year.
Josh Allen is +1200 for the Bills. He was one of the early favorites and is buy-on-the-dip candidate for those who believe he will have a resurgence.
Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals is sneaking-up +1800.
See them all: NFL MVP odds
As for Coach of the Year honors, Nick Sirianni of the Philadelphia Eagles is in substantial minus territory. Robert Saleh of the New York Jets is +500. Both are excellent coaches.
NFL Division Odds
The Cincinnati Bengals were an accurate longshot of +500 to win the AFC North last week. Bettors who took that needed Cincinnati to beat the hottest team in football, the Titans, and the Ravens to lose to the Jaguars.
Both happened, and the teams have similar 7-4 records. That pulled the Bengals to +210.
Granted, the Bengals must still play the Chiefs, Bills, Patriots, and Ravens. Baltimore plays no teams over .500 until meeting the Bengals in the final week and has every reason to win this division.
Nonetheless, bettors who see +210 this week after playing +500 on Cincinnati last week feel good about their pick.
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines
Here are current point spreads, totals, and moneylines on the NFL oddsboards at top US sportsbooks.