Bills vs. Chiefs Odds & Prediction: Buffalo Favored in Superstar QB Showdown

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It seems inevitable that the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off at some point during any NFL season. The two AFC juggernauts meet again in NFL Week 6 in a rematch from last season’s Divisional Playoff Game, which saw the Chiefs win a 42-36 overtime thriller.

Nine months after that playoff match, Buffalo (4-1 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) seeks vengeance as a slight favorite against Kansas City (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) in one of the biggest games of the year. Below, we set forth odds and a prediction for this Bills vs. Chiefs Sunday special.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines

Patrick Mahomes has been favored in each of 41 career home games at Arrowhead Stadium. That incredible streak comes to an end when the Chiefs host the Bills this Sunday.

Bills Mafia – priced between -135 and -148 on the moneyline as of Thursday – hangs a 2.5- to three-point spread over Kansas City. Bettors riding with the home team can find the best odds at +130 at BetRivers.

Below are the best current Bills vs. Chiefs moneyline, spread, and total lines from among top sportsbooks.

BUF Bills vs KC Chiefs Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (10/16) @ 4:25pm ET

BUF Bills at KC Chiefs
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

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This is the fifth installment between these two squads during the Josh Allen and Mahomes eras, with the Chiefs triumphing in three of the previous four.

Bills vs. Chiefs holds an astronomical Over/Under point total of 54, which is by far the largest among Week 6 contests.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

Bills

The Philadelphia Eagles are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL this season, but it’s hard to argue that Buffalo isn’t the most dominant and well-rounded group.

The numbers behind this team are undeniably great. The Bills boast the league’s highest average scoring margin of 18.2 points, nearly double that of the next best team in the 49ers (9.4).

Buffalo is the only team that ranks in the top two in both scoring offense (30.4) and scoring defense (12.2). Just last week, they obliterated the Pittsburgh Steelers 38-3. Allen picked apart Pittsburgh’s defense to the tune of 424 yards and four touchdowns through the air, adding a team-high 42 yards on the ground.

The team’s lone defeat came in Week 3 on the road against the Miami Dolphins, who seemed to be at the peak of their powers at a time when Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t seeing stars.

The Bills have been able to blow out the unthreatening Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee Titans, and Steelers this season, but have split close ball games to more formidable opponents like the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs are as tough an opponent as there is in the league, so the away team should be prepared for a dogfight.

NFL Week 6 Betting Trends: Public Split on Bills vs. Chiefs

Chiefs

The league’s top scoring offense belongs to Kansas City, averaging 31.8 points per contest. The defense, however, coughs up the ninth most points per game (25.0).

Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (15) battles the Buffalo Bills this Sunday in his first-ever game as a home underdog. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Mahomes and the offense thrive in shootout situations. When they visited Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4, the defense surrendered 31 points, but the offense hung up 41.

Against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs fell behind 17-0, but with the help from Travis Kelce and his four touchdowns, the team was able to rally back and win 30-29.

Aside from a 20-17 road loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, this season has been smooth sailing for Kansas City, though things might get a bit choppy when the Bills roll into town.

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

Bettors have been in the money when backing these two teams’ moneylines. However, only Buffalo has been profitable against the spread.

Bills

  • 4-1 moneyline overall; 2-0 ML at home; 2-1 ML on the road
  • 3-1-1 ATS overall; 2-0 ATS at home; 1-1-1 ATS on the road
  • 1-4 O/U overall; 1-1 O/U at home; 2-1 O/U on the road
  • 3-1-1 ATS as favorite; 0-0 ATS as underdog

Chiefs

  • 4-1 ML overall; 2-0 ML at home; 2-1 ML on the road
  • 2-3 ATS overall; 0-2 ATS at home; 2-1 ATS on the road
  • 3-2 O/U overall; 1-1 O/U at home; 2-1 O/U on the road
  • 1-3 ATS as favorite; 1-0 ATS as underdog

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Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction

The recent Chiefs-Bills rivalry has been a gift to NFL fans and bettors. Their last meeting was one of the greatest playoff games in recent memory, and we expect another entertaining 60 minutes of football this Sunday.

We get the argument for riding with Allen and the Bills. They have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, and the team is playing impeccable football on both sides of the ball.

Sorry, Bills Mafia, because with the way this series has gone in the past, plus the fact that Mahomes is 6-2 straight up and 7-0-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, the wiser choice is to go with Kansas City to not only cover the spread, but also to win outright.

Mahomes’ lone defeat to the Bills back in 2021 wasn’t entirely the star quarterback’s fault. The Chiefs lost the turnover battle 4-0 en route to a 38-20 beating. Kansas City seems to have cleaned up that part of its game, though, giving the ball away just four times this season (fifth fewest in the NFL).

Mahomes will likely light it up on Buffalo’s defense yet again on Sunday. As long as the team takes care of the football, the home team should be able to secure another win in this epic matchup.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bills 27; Chiefs ML (+130, BetRivers)

Bills vs. Chiefs Broadcast Information

  • Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
  • Date/Time: Sunday, October 16; 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS

Read more: NFL Week 6 odds | NFL Week 6 betting tips and strategies | More NFL Week 6 picks

About the Author
Cyrus Eshaghoff

Cyrus Eshaghoff

Sports Betting Writer
Cyrus Eshaghoff is a New York-based sports writer. Whether it's heated debates or uncovering statistical insights, he loves discussing sports. Check out his Twitter account (@CyrusEshaghoff).

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