2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Top of Oddsboards Dominated By Wide Receivers

Every team hopes it drafts a player that performs well enough to earn Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) honors. While odds shifted some throughout the preseason, the top of most Offensive Rookie of the Year odds boards saw few changes. Like other NFL awards, the subjectivity of the award allows for a wide range of opinions and for betting odds to vary among sportsbooks.

So, be sure to do some line shopping before placing a bet.

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Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

The following table contains a list of the 25 players with the best odds at DraftKings and their corresponding odds at BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel.

Odds are current as of September 30:

Production is, of course, crucial to any OROY candidate’s campaign and that is why we have seen a lot of change at the top of betting boards. Kenny Pickett opened as the betting favorite but was replaced by Johan Dotson and George Pickens after Week 1. After Week 2, it was Drake London, and following Week 3, it was London and Chris Olave.

Why so much change? Because no one has yet to stand out on a week-to-week basis.

Dotson had a pair of touchdowns in Week 1, but through Week 3, he’s catching just 50% of his passes (9 of 18) and has tallied 109 yards. Pickens surged in popularity after a productive preseason but has yet to do much in the regular season (five catches for 65 yards).

London is making a decent case for himself (16 catches for 214 yards and two touchdowns, but it is far from impressive. Yes, averaging five catches and 70+ yards a game is good. But does it really scream award-worthy?

As for Olave, while he has yet to get into the end zone, he has 17 catches and leads all rookie receivers with 268 yards. However, most of that came last week against Carolina when he had nine receptions for 147 yards.

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Betting Analysis

Heading into Week 4, the OROY is still up for grabs. Anyone could go on to win; they just need to start producing and continue to do so on a regular basis for the remainder of the season. For most, it will come down to opportunity. Do they play enough to get the chance to produce as a potential OROY should produce?

• Drake London will certainly get the chance in Atlanta; the Falcons wide receiver has been targeted by Marcus Mariota on 31.6% of his pass attempts this season; he caught five of seven in Week 1, eight of 12 in Week 2, and three of six last week.
• With Michael Thomas battling injuries, it looks like Chris Olave could be the Saints’ No. 1 receiver, meaning he’ll probably get targeted even more than he already is. However, his production could take a hit if Jameis Winston gets benched for Andy Dalton.
• Garrett Wilson is the only other rookie receiver with 200+ receiving yards, but with inconsistent play from the Jets QBs, it may be hard to rely on him to produce with any regularity.

OROY Odds: Our Picks

No one would fault you for going with London, Olave, 0r Wilson, but if you want to go with just one—take Olave. The Saints have a top ten passing game, and with Michael Thomas battling injuries, Olave will be the No. 1 option. However, it is not too late for another player to emerge and become a contender for OROY. They just need to take advantage of whatever opportunities they get.

Chris Olave is HIM! pic.twitter.com/teb2P4Qiyj

— PFF NO Saints (@PFF_Saints) September 25, 2022

To that end, here are some players, including a couple of sleepers/longshots, that we like:

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans +1200 (FanDuel)

As his workload has increased, so has his production. While Houston will likely be playing from behind much of the season, it is unlikely the Texans ever abandon the run in an attempt to catch up. Their passing game is not good enough to do so.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions +8000 (BetMGM)

The former Alabama star has yet to play. But if he can produce once he does, it will not be hard for him to become a contender.

Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders +10000 (DraftKings)

He’ll have to play relatively soon to have a shot. But with Carson Wentz looking somewhat pedestrian the last couple of weeks, he may get his chance soon. If he can look as good as did during the preseason, he could make a strong case even if he just gets ten or 12 starts.

Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds History

Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com:

Running backs have dominated OROY voting since the award’s inception in 1967, winning it 35 times, next to ten each for wide receivers and quarterbacks. But two of the last three were QBs, Justin Herbert in 2020 and Kyler Murray in 2019. Murray was the preseason betting favorite (+150), but Herbert was a longshot (+3000).

But when doctors accidentally punctured the lung of Tyrod Taylor before their game in Week 2, the door opened for Herbert, and he never looked back.

Focus on First Round Picks—But Not Exclusively

Playing time is a crucial component of any OROY campaign. The sooner a player can get in the lineup, the better. Since teams usually take a player with a first-round pick they expect to play right away, it may be wise to lean towards first-rounders. But don’t overlook the other rounds; 15 of 55 winners have come from rounds 2-6.

Here is a breakdown of winners by draft position:

• 40 winners, including 15 of the last 20, were selected in the first round.
• Five were second-round picks; the last was Anquan Boldin (2003).
• Three were third-round picks; the last was Alvin Kamara (2017).
• Three were fourth-round picks; the last was Dak Prescott (2016).
• Mike Thomas was the only fifth-round pick (1975).
• Two sixth-rounders have won; Mike Anderson (2000) and Don Woods (1974).
• No seventh-round selection has ever won.
• An undrafted free agent has never won.

OROY Winners Not Exclusive to Winning Teams

It’s natural to want to gravitate toward players on better teams. But losing teams pick first in the draft giving them access to better players. That does not mean those guys will thrive, but they are more likely to start in Week 1, giving them the whole season to make a case for OROY honors.

As it turns out, five of the last 10 OROY winners played for teams with sub .500 records. But if you go factor in another decade, 12 of the last 20 winners came from teams with records above .500.

What does this tell us? Easy—don’t overlook someone just because they play for a cellar dweller.

Additional Betting Markets Involving Rookies

Confident in your favorite rookie? Then you may want to consider betting on one of the following markets:

• A rookie has won NFL MVP; Jim Brown was the first in 1957. Four rookie quarterbacks have odds to win NFL MVP this year.
• Aiden Hutchinson’s Defensive ROY odds lead most betting boards, but his NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds are pretty long.
• Offensive Player of the Year odds: Odds are long for a handful of rookies.
• Winning the most passing yards prop will be nearly impossible for any rookie QB that does not start in Week 1.
• Breece Hall has the best odds among rookies for the most rushing yards prop.
• Rookie wide receivers have played well in recent years, but could one lead the league in receiving yards this year? Treylon Burks, Drake London, and Jameson Williams have receiving yards leader odds.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds — FAQs