Early opportunities greet bettors welcoming the second half of the NFL season kicking off in Week 10.
Early in the week, the DraftKings gambling public bestowed its highest confidence in the Chicago Bears with 96% handle at -2.5 when they host the Detroit Lions.
The high percentage of Bears money helped push the line -3 (-105). To a Bears bettor, the early bird caught the favorable line. Lions backers now have the chance to take +3.
The Dallas Cowboys are the largest road favorite of the week, sitting at -5 against the host Green Bay Packers with 83% of the DraftKings betting handle.
Green Bay is reeling from five straight losses — most in the entire NFL — and has lengthened to a once unfathomable +15000 at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl. The Packers, the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs the two last seasons, have been as inept as their 3-6 record attests.
Aaron Rodgers getting almost a touchdown at Lambeau Field? What has the world come to?
Titans, Giants, Cowboys Trending Upward Ahead of Week 10
The Tennessee Titans have 85% support against the visiting Denver Broncos at DraftKings. The line moved from -2.5 to -3 at that sportsbook, although it sits -3 (-105) on most NFL oddsboards. The line suggests Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is not ready to come back from an ankle injury that has shelved him the last two weeks. In his absence, backup quarterback Malik Willis has thrown for 135 yards and no touchdowns. That’s a low output for one game, let alone two.
Prop bettors will instead load up on Derrick Henry, the league’s top rushing workhorse. Over the last four games, Henry has an astonishing streak. He has tallied all of the Titans’ last five offensive touchdowns.
That makes him a betting magnet in this game.
The combo of Henry pounding the rock and a stout defense has led Tennessee to six consecutive covers.
The Titans, along with the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys, are a league-best 6-2 against the spread.
NFL Week 10 Totals Trends
The largest percentage of confidence in DraftKings totals for Week 10 is 90% handle for the Cleveland Browns-Miami Dolphins to exceed 48.5 points. The Dolphins rewarded Over 46 bettors for their 35-32 Week 10 shootout victory over the Bears.
They have looked explosive with the return of Tua Tagovailoa a few weeks back. Early bettors believe that outweighs an oddity: all four of the Dolphins’ home games in 2022 have gone Under.
The biggest confidence in the Under is the 91% handle on the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers to score fewer than 40.5 points.
Bettors back the Steelers Under nearly every week, and Pitt is 5-3 to the Under this season, with that bet cashing in three of its last four games.
Risers and Fallers: Dolphins move up in Super Bowl futures odds
TNF Betting Trends
The Atlanta Falcons launch the Week 10 slate Thursday night as road chalk for the first time this year. DraftKings opened with Atlanta at -1.5 and moved to -3 against the host Carolina Panthers amid heavy Falcons support.
This is a rematch from two weeks ago, when two missed Eddie Pineiro kicks prevented Carolina from completing a miracle comeback in Atlanta. The Panthers lost 37-34 in overtime.
P.J. Walker, who rallied the Panthers in that game, gets the quarterback start but may be on a short leash. He was lifted for Baker Mayfield in the second half of a 42-21 setback to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9
Mayfield — on the heels of Walker going 3-for-10 with nine yards and two interceptions — directed two second-half touchdown drives for Carolina. That led to an expectation in the books that he would start on Thursday.
But Walker gets another chance.
The Falcons, although 6-3 against the spread, have lost their last two against the number.
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Bettors Fading Colts, Jeff Saturday
The Indianapolis Colts unveil Jeff Saturday in the coaching role this week after firing Frank Reich following a 26-3 blowout loss to the New England Patriots in Week 9. The Colts were the only NFL team not to reach the end zone last week and have slumped to 3-5-1 with three straight losses.
The move to a new coach often energizes a team for at least one game.
The DraftKings bettors are nonetheless backing the host Raiders at 85% handle and -6.5. Saturday has never coached an NFL game.
New York Jets Help Over Bettors Ring the Bell
The Jets, now 6-3, were the first team to exceed their win total (5.5) at major sportsbooks.
They vaulted the hurdle with a 20-17 upset over the Buffalo Bills, the +290 DraftKings chalk to win the Super Bowl, in Week 9. The Jets paid a sizable +420 on the moneyline on their home win and improved to 6-3 against the spread.
The team has molded under the passionate leadership of coach Robert Saleh. New York stole last-second victories over the Cleveland Browns and Steelers, notched a romp over the Packers and a triumph against the Broncos — all on the road.
At home, they thumped the Dolphins, lost a game they should have won against the New England Patriots, and seized a game few thought they should win against the Bills.
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today the Jets have found a high level of confidence.
“The Jets know how to win now,” Avello said. “They have this feeling now like, ‘we are putting this together, we can compete against anybody.’”
Because of that, they can rise to any occasion, Avello believes.
“You have to catch Buffalo on a bad day, which they did, and you have to play a very good game, which they did,” Avello noted. “If the Jets play the Bills 10 times, the Bills are going to win eight of them.”
But last week was not one of the eight. That’s why the Jets blew up several million dollars of moneyline parlays nationwide, according to Avello.
Can they get the New England piano off their back in Week 11 (the look-head line has Pats -5.5 at home)? New England owns 13 consecutive triumphs over the Jets going back to 2015.
Not only are the current Jets thriving, but so is a former Jet …
Geno Smith Lights Up Caesars Board
Quarterback Geno Smith is having an excellent year leading the Seattle Seahawks to a 6-3 mark and into the first-ever NFL game in Germany versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday in Munich.
Smith delivered his latest package of professionalism last week. After throwing a pick-6, which put the Seahawks behind against the Arizona Cardinals, he directed scoring drives of 75, 81, and 85 yards. Seattle prevailed 31-21 and leads the NFC West.
The Seahawks have won four straight. The next victory not only matches their 2021 total but will cash a ticket for their win total of Over 6 at Caesars.
Smith, a pro since 2013, enjoys his finest season. He has a career-high 15 touchdowns against only four picks and has thrown for 2,199 yards. He will set new personal bests in that category, too. Smith guides a team with receiving stalwarts Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, along with star running back Kenneth Walker.
The Seahawks are playing solidly on both sides of the ball. Bettors are weighing in not only on them, but on Smith.
“In my mind, it’s far and away the most impressive and shocking performance this year,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Not much was expected from the Seahawks and Geno Smith, and people were waiting for them to come back to earth. Sometimes it takes a lot of time for someone to earn people’s respect, even us bookmakers.
“It’s easy to say now that we waited too long to add Geno for MVP, but I think it plays into the whole story about how nobody expected anything from Seattle this year, especially at the quarterback position. He’s definitely proven us and everyone else wrong this season.”
Smith was first posted at +1000 (100-to-1 odds) to win the NFL MVP on Oct. 23 at Caesars. He was moved down to +6000 on Nov. 4 and shifted even further to his current +2500 on Nov. 7.
He has the seventh-lowest odds behind Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs (+200), Josh Allen from the Bills (+225), Jalen Hurts of the Eagles (+250), Lamar Jackson of the Ravens (+900), Tagovailoa (+1500) and Joe Burrow of the Bengals (+2000).
Since Smith’s MVP odds were added on Oct. 23, he’s received more bets than anyone else to capture the award, Pullen said. Smith leads the way with 23.2% of the tickets, followed by Hurts at 14.8% and Allen at 14.3%.
See them all: Odds to win NFL MVP
The Seahawks are getting some Super Bowl love, too.
Seattle was as high as +50000 (500-1) during this season, positioned there from Sept. 25 to Oct. 2 and Oct. 9 to Oct. 16. On Oct. 23, they were +10000 (100-1) and now sit at +3500.
What a jump. Some big gamblers are taking stabs at them too.
A New York bettor laid $2,500 on the Seahawks at +30000 for a potential win of $750,000.
Caesars bettors have backed Seattle the strongest in division futures.
The Seahawks were +3000 to win the NFC West to start the season. That’s down to +140. Seattle is behind only the 49ers at -130 but way out in front of the Rams at +1200 and the Cardinals at +4000.
Since October, no team has drawn more tickets and money than the Seahawks to win their respective division at Caesars.
Pullen said there have been more tickets on the Seahawks to win the NFC West in that span than all bets placed on AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, and NFC North futures.
The Seattle NFC West action is highlighted by three noteworthy wagers.
One Michigan bettor put down $25,000 on the Seahawks at +1500 on Oct. 20 and another $50,000 on them +550 on Oct. 28 for a total potential win of $625,000.
An Arizona bettor got in even earlier, on Oct. 17, staking $10,000 on the Seahawks at +1800 for a potential win of $180,000.
Update: Odds to win NFC
Smith has also been attracting support in another futures market, Comeback Player of the Year. He was first added to this market at Caesars on Oct. 5 at +2500, while Saquon Barkley was the favorite then at +110. Heading into last weekend, he was at +150 compared to Barkley’s -140 price.
The two have now flipped, with Smith the favorite for the first time at -140 and Barkley close behind at +150.
Bettors who got in early on Smith feel like geniuses.
Since Smith was added to Comeback Player of the Year odds on Oct. 5, he ranks first in tickets at 49.1% and in handle at 79.6% to be given the award, Caesars reported.
NFL Week 10 Odds
Here are current point spreads, totals, and moneylines for top US sports betting apps.