Sunday’s NCAA Women’s National Championship game features Iowa star Caitlin Clark taking on the undefeated South Carolina Gamecocks in a rematch of the 2023 Women’s Final Four game in which Clark upset South Carolina.
The title game, which tips off at 3 p.m. on Sunday on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, is expected to be competitive, with oddsmakers listing the Gamecocks as 6-to-6.5-point favorites.
Here, we will break down the South Carolina vs. Iowa predictions and odds. Select the bet you like most at one of our top sportsbook apps and sign up to place your bet.
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The most notable name in this sport is Clark, but Iowa showed in Friday night’s 71-69 win over Paige Bueckers and Connecticut that it can beat elite competition without a massive scoring night from its star. UConn “limited” Clark to just 21 points, but Hawkeyes forward Hannah Stuelke stepped up with 23 points, guard Kate Martin added 11, and Iowa outscored the Huskies 45-37 in the second half to win despite a 6-point deficit at halftime.
South Carolina took on a dangerous NC State team in its Final Four matchup and led by one point at halftime before a dominant third quarter broke the game open. The Gamecocks, who led 32-31 at halftime, pulled away by outscoring the Wolfpack 29-6 in the third quarter en route to a 78-59 blowout.
Indiana tested Dawn Staley’s team in a close game in the Sweet 16, but it enters the national title game coming off a 12-point win over Oregon State and a 19-point romp in the Final Four.
Let’s get into the matchup and give our best South Carolina vs. Iowa betting pick.
South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Preview
The Gamecocks don’t lack stars or future WNBA players, but what sets this team apart is its depth and athleticism across the board. NC State appeared capable of taking Friday’s Final Four game down to the wire, but USC jumped the Pack in the third quarter and never looked back.
Kamilla Cardoso (14 points, 9.5 rebounds per game) is unstoppable down low, and South Carolina — as always — is one of the toughest teams in the country to score on. This year, they also boast enough shooting to win, even on the rare nights they’re neutralized in the paint.
The Gamecocks shot 8-for-19 from outside in their win over State, as Raven Johnson hit three of her five 3-point attempts and Te-Hina PaoPao added two more made 3s. Paopao is one of the top long-distance shooters in the country at 46% from 3 on the season, and she’s one of four players on this team who shoot at least 36% from outside.
Clark and Iowa can keep Sunday’s game interesting, especially if Clark catches fire from outside, but the Gamecocks will get this game going away if they’re at their best. One thing to monitor is the status of Cardoso, who was injured in the win over the Wolfpack. But she’s expected to play on Sunday.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
If anyone can beat the Gamecocks, it’s Caitlin Clark and Co. In the last two seasons, South Carolina has been beaten just once by none other than the Hawkeyes. Clark rightfully gets all the headlines for her team, but it was Stuelke who led the team in scoring in the win over UConn.
The scary thing for South Carolina is that Iowa won despite shooting just 7-for-25 from 3 against the Huskies (including a rare tough night for Clark, who hit just 3 of her 11 3-pointers). If Clark can bounce back against a tough South Carolina defense and shoot as well as she normally does, Iowa has a real chance to shock the Gamecocks again.
It’s hard to see her erupting for 41 as she did in the Elite 8 vs. LSU last week and last year’s win over South Carolina. But she can have a huge night, regardless of how well she’s defended. Iowa needs a near-perfect performance to upset South Carolina in back-to-back seasons, but no one should be surprised if this game is up in the air in the fourth quarter.
Related Pages: Implied Probability Calculator | Moneyline Calculator | South Carolina Sports Betting
South Carolina vs Iowa Predictions & Betting Pick
As good as Clark has been throughout her career, she and Iowa are facing a machine on Sunday night, and I don’t see this South Carolina team letting Iowa ruin its perfect season a second time. Expect a bounce-back shooting effort from Clark, but the Gamecocks have too many high-caliber players to throw at Iowa for the Hawkeyes to hang for 40 minutes.
Last year, we saw that anything can happen when these teams meet, which makes this a tough game to call. That being said, the safest play is to take the Gamecocks to win — and cover — for national title number three for Dawn Staley.
Prediction: South Carolina to cut down the nets
South Carolina vs Iowa Betting Pick: South Carolina (-6 at time of publishing)
How to Watch South Carolina vs Iowa
- Date: Sunday, April 7, 2024
- Tip-Off: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse — Cleveland
- Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
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