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The war in Iran continues to be at the forefront of trending prediction markets on Polymarket, but this week’s popular topics also include the recent hantavirus scare and the winner of the Eurovision 2026 singing contest.
US-Iran peace deal continues trending run
Prediction markets continue to be fascinated by the likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal. There are nearly $50 million in contracts bought for various deadlines through Dec. 31.
The bulk of the money is on May 31 right now. There is a 17% chance that peace will come by then. The last day in December has the highest probability of the available contracts on Polymarket at 62%.
Nearly $60 million in resolved contracts have passed, including dates from April 22 to May 11.
Will hantavirus cause a global pandemic?
Hantavirus, a deadly rodent-borne respiratory illness, has already claimed the lives of three people who were aboard the cruise ship MV Hondius, owned by Netherlands-based Oceanwide Expedition.
An alert from the World Health Organization (WHO) says that it received notification on May 2 that two passengers aboard the ship had died of severe acute respiratory illness. Tests conducted on at least one passenger were positive for hantavirus.
WHO’s risk assessment of the situation notes that hantavirus infections are “uncommon globally” and that human-to-human transmission is typically limited to people who have the virus and are in “close and prolonged contact” with people.
The likelihood of the global population being at risk of contracting hantavirus is low, the WHO said.
The prediction markets agree: There’s a 9% chance a hantavirus pandemic will happen in 2026.
One Scandinavian country a favorite to win Eurovision
Eurovision is the March Madness-style singing competition made up of countries that are part of the European Broadcasting Union.
Singers from countries battle it out during three televised competitions: two semifinals and one final.
This year’s first semifinal took place earlier this week, and so far, the following 15 countries have made it to the finals:
- Austria
- Belgium
- Croatia
- Denmark
- Finland
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Israel
- Lithuania
- Moldova
- Poland
- Serbia
- Sweden
- United Kingdom
At Polymarket, three of the top four favorites to win the competition are already through to the finals: Finland, Greece, and Israel. Denmark will compete in Thursday’s seminfinal.
There’s no argument over who will finish in the top spot, according to the markets: Finland is the favorite with a 45% chance. If it does, it will be the ninth year in a row with a different winner.
