On Monday night, UConn handily defeated Purdue 75-60 to secure back-to-back championship seasons and its sixth title since 1999.
And while it was a glorious night for head coach Hurley and the Huskies, the outcome was less than ideal for oddsmakers.
Sportsbooks wanted — ahem, needed — the Boilermakers to win. Perhaps a UConn win with Purdue covering the spread. Instead, the Huskies picked up a 12th consecutive win against the spread in the NCAA tournament, and the public came out on top.
Let’s look at how the odds played out.
Lopsided Action
BetMGM Sportsbook, like many other sportsbooks, revealed early on in the tournament that UConn was a huge liability in the futures market. The Huskies were, after all, the reigning champs coming into the 2024 season.
By the time Monday night rolled around, BetMGM PR Manager John Ewing noted on social media that the book needed the Boilermakers.
The sportsbook wants Purdue to win. pic.twitter.com/ypx6mp7FkH
— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 9, 2024
According to Ewing, the best-case scenario for BetMGM would have been a Purdue win, with the next one being a UConn win with a Purdue cover.
A UConn win and cover was the worst-case scenario for that particular book. Of course, that’s what we got. UConn won and covered the 7-point spread by beating the Boilermakers 75-60.
So, where did the lopsided action come into play?
Ewing explained there was “lopsided action on Purdue’s moneyline” and “lopsided betting on UConn spread,” with spread betting seeing higher volume than the moneyline.
Also, one of the largest futures bets that cashed was at DraftKings. Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy placed a $600,000 wager on UConn +360 to win the event. Mattress Mack had the largest futures bet of $1 million on Houston +750 at Caesars Sportsbook.
The largest reported #MarchMadness futures bet was $1 million on Houston +750 at @CaesarsSports, made by @MattressMack. That fell in the Sweet 16.
The largest still-live bet: $600,000 on UConn +360 at @DKSportsbook, made pre-tourney by @stoolpresidente.
To win $2.16 million.
— Patrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas) April 8, 2024
Related Pages: Best Sportsbook Promos | Connecticut Sports Betting | Best Parlay Apps
UConn Against the Spread and Other Betting Insights
Bettors following the trends might have predicted that the Huskies would cover the 7-point spread. Throughout the last two NCAA tournaments, UConn has been a perfect 12-0 against the spread (ATS).
And it’s not just the Huskies squeaky-clean recent tourney record ATS that’s impressive; how their odds have shortened all postseason is also a sight to marvel at.
Here’s a glimpse at how the Huskies’ odds moved since the beginning of the tournament:
Open: +1200
Round of 64: +350
Sweet 16: +200
Final Four: -190
Title Game: -300
And for the matchup between UConn and Purdue, there were a number of interesting prop bets.
- UConn’s Tristen Newton points scored Over/Under was 15.5. With 12 minutes left in the game, Over bettors cashed their tickets.
- Purdue’s Zach Edey was +290 to score the first field goal and was the most-bet player to score the first basket. Boilermaker Trey Kaufman-Renn scored the first basket of the game with a jumper.
- At BetMGM, most-bet tickets on Same-Game Parlays were on UConn to win, Over 142.5 to hit, and UConn’s Donovan Clingan to score 15 points or more. Legs two and three of that parlay did not cash.
Looking Ahead to 2025
The confetti is still fresh on the court, and we’re already looking ahead to next year’s title odds. Opening odds at BetMGM for teams at the top of the 2025 men’s March Madness odds board look like this:
- Kansas +1100
- Duke +1100
- Connecticut +1200
- Houston +1400
- North Carolina +1600
- Kentucky +1800
- Baylor +2000
- Alabama +2000
- Arizona +2000
- Gonzaga +2000
Can UConn at +1200 win its seventh ‘chip since 1999, and furthermore, will the Huskies end up being as much of a liability next year as they were in 2024?
Stay tuned as the odds unfold this offseason.
READ MORE:
About the Author
