UFC 301 Odds, Predictions: Pantoja vs. Erceg Headline Brazil Card

A flyweight championship fight is headlining UFC 301 as Champion Alexandre Pantoja takes on challenger Steven Erceg in Brazil.

The card also features the return of UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo as he battles it out against Jonathan Martinez.

Here are the UFC 301 odds, props, and predictions.

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UFC 301 Main Event Odds: Pantoja vs. Erceg

The champ is slightly favored in the sportsbooks at around , making challenger Erceg the slight underdog at . 

UFC 301 Betting Preview: Pantoja vs. Erceg

Alexandre Pantoja (27-5 MMA, 11-3 UFC) has been quite impressive as of late. 

The champion is currently on a five-fight win streak, dating back to Feb. 2021. In those five fights, he has beaten Brandon Royval twice, won strong decisions over Manel Kape and Alex Perez, and snatched the belt away from Brandon Moreno.

The flyweight division is kind of scattered right now based on who has beat who and the division isn’t as deep as some of the others. This may work in Pantoja’s favor for a while. He has beaten Royval and Moreno twice. He has already beaten Perez, who just scored a great KO win last weekend and could see a title shot of his own sooner than later if he keeps it up. 

Muhammad Mokaev keeps winning and rising up the ranks, but the title shot date hasn’t yet been set for the young prospect. 

So in hops No. 10-ranked Steven Erceg (12-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC).

Erceg has been in the UFC for less than a year but has made a statement already.

He has wins over David Dvorak, Matt Schnell, and Alessandro Costa. He has also won two performance of the night bonuses in his three fights.

Facing Pantoja in Brazil is a big challenge and the UFC is probably expecting their Brazilian champ to get the job done at home to set up a future fight with Mokaev later this year.

But if things go according to Erceg’s plan, Australia will have a new champion to root for while Alexander Volkanovski continues to train and recover for an eventual rematch against Ilia Topuria.

UFC 300 Main Event Props and Predictions

Method of Victory (DraftKings)

• Pantoja by KO/TKO: +110
• Pantoja by Submission: +1800
• Pantoja by Decision: +600
• Draw: +5000
• Erceg by KO/TKO: +200
• Erceg by Submission: +1600
• Erceg by Decision: +750

Total Rounds (DraftKings)

• Over 0.5 (-8000, Under 0.5 (+1100)
• Over 1.5 (-500), Under 1.5 (+320)
• Over 2.5 (-240), Under 2.5 (+175)
• Over 3.5 (-150), Under 3.5 (+120)
• Over 4.5 (-105), Under 4.5 (-125)

Will Fight Go the Distance? (FanDuel)

• Yes: +120
• No: -152

UFC 301 Main Card Odds

• Under 3.5 Rounds: +120

UFC 301 Main Card Odds

Flyweight Championship: Alexandre Pantoja () vs. Steven Erceg ()

Bantamweight Bout: Jonathan Martinez () vs. Jose Aldo ()

Light Heavyweight Bout: Anthony Smith () vs. Vitor Petrino ()

Middleweight Bout: Michel Pereira () vs. Ihor Potieria ()

Middleweight Bout: Paul Craig () vs. Caio Borralho ()

UFC 301 Event Info

Date: Saturday, May 4, 2024
Start Time: Main Card at 10 p.m. ET
Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Where to Watch: ESPN+ PPV