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America loves to bet on March Madness just as they love the tournament itself.
Bettors across the country are projected to legally wager $3.3 billion on the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, which tipped off Thursday with first-round men’s matchups. The estimate comes from the latest data released by the American Gaming Association (AGA).
“March Madness is the highlight of the college basketball season and fans are gearing up for a month of tournament action,” AGA CEO Bill Miller said in a statement. “Fans continue to engage with legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers during one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.”
The 2026 projection is 54% higher than estimated wagering totals from three years ago, marking a massive surge in sports betting action since 2023.
Prediction markets to play prominent role in ads
Office pools, online brackets, and legal sports wagering have long reigned as the primary ways to predict or gamble on the outcome of NCAA tournament games. However, prediction markets have grown in size and influence over the past two years.
This year’s March Madness serves as a prime example of that growth. According to the AGA, prediction markets will account for more than half of all digital sports betting ads during this year’s tournament.
Kalshi is expected to lead the advertising blitz. The AGA pointed out that the prediction market platform’s online ad presence is significantly greater than that of FanDuel, the most frequent sportsbook advertiser.
“Kalshi is currently the most visible sports betting brand by digital ad impressions, with consumers exposed to its advertising approximately 5.2 billion times this year, compared with 2.9 billion impressions for FanDuel,” the AGA reported.
Concerns over responsible gaming messaging
The AGA, which advocates for the legal gambling industry, noted that prediction markets are often not held to the same responsible gaming regulations as traditional sportsbooks.
Approximately 15% of prediction market ads seen by consumers over the past year did not comply with state-mandated responsible gaming messages. Furthermore, the AGA stated that prediction markets are a major factor in why 43% of digital sports betting ads in the U.S. have failed to meet state-level responsible gaming requirements so far this year.
“Confidence in your wager — and in the integrity of the games — starts with a fair and compliant betting market,” Miller said. “That’s why it’s so important that everyone offering sports bets in the U.S. comply with state and tribal regulations, ensuring that consumers are protected.”
