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We went 2-1 on our Week 4 best bets, and the one miss is the reason every pick below comes with a price limit. Tennessee at +11.5 and the under in Miami at Minnesota both cashed. Detroit at -3.5 did not, because Carolina won the game outright.
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This week in the NFL our strongest play is Jacksonville in London. We also like Cleveland as a small underdog and the over in Lions at Cardinals, and we are passing on the two games that hinge on injury news.
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Game Lines, Prop Bets & Parlays for Days
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Game Lines, Prop Bets & Parlays for Days
All lines were checked on 9 October and are subject to movement. Confirm the current number at your sportsbook before acting.
How Our Week 4 Picks Did
| Pick | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Titans +11.5 at Ravens | Won | Baltimore won 24-18 |
| Under 38.5, Dolphins at Vikings | Won | Vikings won 15-10, 25 total points |
| Lions -3.5 at Panthers | Lost | Carolina won 32-26 |
| Three-leg parlay | Lost | Buffalo lost 29-26 to New England and Detroit lost |
| Avoid: Cardinals -1.5 at Giants | Right to avoid | Giants won 36-24 |
| Avoid: Packers -4 at Buccaneers | Right to avoid | Packers won 17-14, no cover |
A price limit protects you from paying too much for a good idea. It does not protect you from being wrong, and the Lions miss was the second kind. We would rather show the full ledger than only the winners.
Our Three Best Bets for Week 5
| Pick | Line | Play it to | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles vs Jaguars (London) | JAX -4.5 | -5.5 | Highest |
| Browns at Jets | CLE +1.5 | +1.5 | Medium |
| Over Lions at Cardinals | 53.5 | 54.5 | Medium |
The “play it to” column is the worst price at which we would still take the pick. If the line moves past it, pass.
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Best bet: Jaguars -4.5 vs Eagles (London)
Jacksonville is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread, with an average winning margin of 12.8 points, the second best in the league. Its offence converts about 82% of red zone trips into touchdowns, among the top three in the NFL, and Trevor Lawrence has eight touchdown passes.
Philadelphia is 0-4 against the spread. Last week it led the Rams 20-10 at halftime and was shut out in the second half, and Saquon Barkley left with a hamstring injury. The line has already climbed from 3, so price matters. Some books are at -6.5, and at that number we would pass.
The lean: Jacksonville -4.5. Play it to -5.5.
Best bet: Browns +1.5 at Jets
Cleveland is 3-1 straight up and against the spread, one of the surprises of the first month. It beat Pittsburgh last Thursday and sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, which means it has extra days of rest against a Jets team that played on Sunday.
New York is 1-3 and was reported to have failed to convert any of its seven third downs in Chicago. The market has the Jets as small favourites, and the Browns look like the better side. At pick’em or with Cleveland laying points, the value is gone.
The lean: Cleveland +1.5. Play it to +1.5.
Best bet: Over 53.5, Lions at Cardinals
The highest total on the board, and we think it is still right. Detroit’s defence has been giving up about 32 points a game, and Carolina gained 445 yards against it last week. Arizona allowed 36 points to the Giants.
Both offences can score, and neither defence has stopped anyone lately. Last week’s Lions game produced 58 combined points. The risk is that the market has already priced the shootout, so we cap the price.
The lean: over 53.5. Play it to 54.5.
Two We Are Passing On
Ravens at Falcons, BAL -3.5
Lamar Jackson has only an outside chance to play, according to NFL Network. If he sits, Tyler Huntley starts, and Baltimore’s offence went scoreless over five drives with him in last week.
Atlanta also scored 45 on Monday night. The number will move sharply once Jackson’s status is clear, and any price we quoted today would be stale. Wait for Friday’s report.
Giants at Commanders, WAS -3
Jayden Daniels is hoped to return from an elbow dislocation, but Marcus Mariota hurt his knee and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis could start if Daniels cannot. Washington’s quarterback is genuinely unknown, so the spread is a guess. Pass.
Week 5 Parlay: Our Three Best Bets
| Leg | Pick | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguars -4.5 | 3-1 against the spread, against an Eagles team that is 0-4 |
| 2 | Browns +1.5 | 3-1 against the spread with a rest edge |
| 3 | Over 53.5 (DET at ARI) | Two defences that are leaking points |
A word on parlays. Three legs near even money returns roughly 6 to 1, and the true chance of all three landing is lower than that price implies once the juice compounds. Last week’s parlay lost on two legs we had also listed as best bets. Treat this as an entertainment stake, not the core of your week.
The Rest of the Board
| Matchup | Line | Quick read |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys (Thu) | DAL -10, 47.5 | Tampa Bay is 0-4 against the spread with a backup quarterback. Dallas has gone over in every game. Too big a number to lay |
| Eagles vs Jaguars (London) | JAX -4.5, 42.5 | Best bet |
| Bears at Packers | CHI -3, 44.5 | Green Bay is 6-2 against the spread as a home underdog under LaFleur. Pass |
| Bengals at Dolphins | CIN -7.5, 42.5 | Chase and Higgins are hurt. Wait for Friday |
| Browns at Jets | NYJ -1.5, 40.5 | Best bet |
| Texans at Titans | HOU -7, 39.5 | Two winless teams. Houston is 0-4 against the spread. Pass |
| Colts at Steelers | PIT -2.5, 44.5 | Indianapolis flies back from London and Pittsburgh has extra rest. A lean to Pittsburgh below 3, but not a bet |
| Raiders at Patriots | NE -3.5, 45.5 | New England is 7-4-1 against the spread at home since last season, and Las Vegas just lost for the first time. No clear edge. Pass |
| Giants at Commanders | WAS -3, 44.5 | Avoid. Quarterback unknown |
| Vikings at Saints | MIN -1.5, 41.5 | Minnesota has not covered as a road favourite this year. Pass |
| Broncos at Chargers | DEN -3.5, 42.5 | The under is 6-2 between them. Denver’s cornerback injuries matter. Wait for Friday |
| Lions at Cardinals | DET -4.5, 53.5 | Best bet. Over |
| 49ers at Seahawks | SEA -2.5, 47.5 | The only game between two teams above .500. No edge. Pass |
| Ravens at Falcons | BAL -3.5, 46.5 | Avoid. Lamar Jackson’s ankle |
| Bills at Rams (Mon) | LAR -2.5, 53.5 | A possible Super Bowl preview. Revisit Monday |
For a pick on every game rather than just our strongest plays, see our NFL picks this week.
What Four Weeks of Results Taught Us
- Big favourites can win without covering. Baltimore and Minnesota both won in Week 4 and neither covered. We took Tennessee and the points, and the under in the other game, and both cashed.
- Treat injury-dependent lines as unpriced. Both our avoids last week were right.
- Price limits are part of the pick. A bet that is right at -3.5 can be wrong at -4.5.
- Passing is a position. Several games on this board have no clean read.
Our Week 5 news roundup covers the injuries most likely to move these lines before kickoff, and our NFL odds page has the full board.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for NFL Week 5?
Jaguars -4.5 against the Eagles in London. Jacksonville is 3-1 against the spread, Philadelphia is 0-4, and we would play it down to -5.5.
What is the best total bet in Week 5?
Over 53.5 in Lions at Cardinals. Both defences have been giving up points, and the total is the highest on the board.
Which Week 5 games should you avoid?
Ravens at Falcons and Giants at Commanders. Both depend on a quarterback’s status, so wait for Friday’s reports.
How did your Week 4 best bets do?
2-1. Titans +11.5 and the under in Dolphins at Vikings won, and Lions -3.5 lost. The parlay also lost.
What does “play it to” mean?
It is the worst price at which we would still take the pick. If we like Jacksonville at -4.5 and the line moves to -6.5, the pick is no longer the same bet, so we pass.
Is a Week 5 parlay worth it?
Only as an entertainment stake. Parlays pay more because they are harder to win, and compounding juice means the price rarely reflects the true probability.
Best bets are analysis and opinion, not guarantees of any outcome. Odds referenced were accurate at the time of writing and are subject to change. You must be 21 or older and physically located in a state where sports betting is legal to place a wager. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential support.
