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Gaming Edge’s TL;DR
- US senators and representatives have filed the BETS OFF Act to bar prediction markets from offering bets on government decisions, military actions, terrorism, and events where a single person can control the outcome.
- This move targets platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and could reshape what US players can legally trade.
US Sens. Chris Murphy (D‑Conn.) and John Hickenlooper (D‑Colo.) and Reps. Greg Casar (D‑Texas), Yassamin Ansari (D‑Ariz.), Gabe Amo (D‑R.I.) and Rashida Tlaib (D‑Mich.) have introduced the bicameral BETS OFF Act.
The bill would ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and any private events where a single individual effectively knows or controls the outcome (examples cited include specific political speeches or entertainment bookings).
Sponsors pointed to suspicious activity on Polymarket ahead of US strikes on Iran. Hundreds of new accounts placed large bets shortly before the strikes. The lawmakers say these markets invite insider trading.
The proposal would amend federal illegal gambling statutes to block payment processing for banned markets. It would also impose criminal penalties on US operators or promoters who run them.
Sponsors say there’s cross-party concerns
The bill would remove certain contract types from available prediction markets, particularly those tied to national security and high‑sensitivity government decisions. That could mean closed markets, forced liquidations, or restrictions on new positions for US accounts.
Operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket argue their products are forecasting tools regulated as derivatives. The bill’s payment‑blocking language and criminal penalties create immediate compliance and business‑model risk.
Payment processors and banks could be ordered to cut ties with platforms offering banned contracts. Operators may consider geofencing, contract redesigns, or moving certain markets offshore to serve non‑US customers.
The bill’s prospects are uncertain; sponsors acknowledged partisan headwinds but pointed to cross‑party public concern, citing a poll showing majority support for bans on these markets.
Based on reporting by Andrew O’Malley for Gambling Insider.
