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Problem gambling and gambling addiction are not the same things. While problem gamblers may overspend or strain relationships, gambling addicts spiral out of control. This can lead to bankruptcy, job loss, and divorce. Bettors and their friends and loved ones can catch early warning signs of problem gambling and prevent them from escalating into something worse.
Dr. Kevin Alderson, Alberta psychologist, professor emeritus of counseling psychology for the University of Calgary, and author of the textbook, Addiction Counseling Today: Substances and Addictive Behaviors, identified six cognitive biases that problem gamblers and gambling addicts share:
- Gambler’s Fallacy
- Hot Hand Fallacy
- Illusion of Luck
- Illusion of Control
- Illusion of Expertise
- Unrealistic Optimism
These beliefs can be caught and corrected early to minimize the risk of an at-risk gambler becoming a gambling addict. Bettors can also learn responsible gaming habits from professional sports bettors, who approach sports betting with cold rationality.
Gambler’s Fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that random events will correct into a pattern a bettor expects or wants.
“In other words, (the belief is) a big win is bound to (happen) after a losing streak,” Dr. Alderson said.
It’s a fallacy because the first event has nothing to do with whether the next event is a win or a loss.
“You could just keep losing, losing, losing, and never have a big win,” Dr. Alderson continued.
Even the best sports bettors have small edges. Their picks are no more likely to be winners after a losing streak. The pros know that and budget accordingly.
Hot Hand Fallacy
Problem gamblers and misinformed gamblers alike believe winning streaks are likely to continue. Bettors may believe that if they’re “hot” on a particular day or weekend, then they’ll stay on their hot streak.
“Gambling doesn’t work on the basis of your beliefs,” Dr. Alderson said. “It works on the basis that the favor is always with the house.”
If a coin is tossed 1,000 times, it will likely land heads close to 500 times and tails 500 times. There may be streaks of 10 heads or 15 tails in a row, but over many flips, the pattern will even out to roughly a 50/50 split.
Professional gamblers stick to systems knowing randomness results in winning and losing streaks. Over the long term, though, their small edges turn into profit. However, since recreational bettors do not have such edges, it is far more difficult to recover from losing streaks.
Illusion of Luck
Some people appear to be lucky, while others seem unlucky. The reality is everyone has the same chance of hitting the jackpot or going on a losing streak. Believing otherwise can lead at-risk gamblers to become problem gamblers or gambling addicts.
“If you think you’re a lucky individual, you’re more likely to get into gambling and to keep gambling,” Dr. Alderson said.
Professionals don’t rely on luck to beat the house. They develop skills and systems that work over many bets.
Illusion Of Control
Problem gamblers often believe in “locks”, or bets that have virtually no chance of losing. Professional gamblers understand that’s nonsense, that’s there no such thing as a “lock” in gambling.
“Even though you can become better at gambling,” Dr. Alderson said. “There’s certainly no guarantees when it comes to what the outcome of it is going to be. But generally most of the time, you’re going to lose more than you win.”
Professional gamblers understand their edge is small, which means they’ll lose plenty of bets but will come out ahead over the long term.
Illusion Of Expertise
Many gamblers think they’re better at gambling than they really are. Professionals approach their craft more realistically. If their edge begins to erode, their meticulous recordkeeping will indicate their system should be tweaked. The game of blackjack provides an example.
“It used to be that if you were a professional blackjack player and you used the counting technique, that your odds were actually slightly better than chance and you could come out on top over the bank,” said Dr. Alderson. However, larger decks and frequent reshuffles have mitigated some of the edge gained by card counting,
To be profitable over the long term betting on sports, you must win more than 52.4% of your wagers against the standard -110 vig. Professional sports bettors have the expertise that allows them to do that.
Predicting games against the spread at a 53% clip may seem easy to some casual gamblers. However, it takes years of hard work and a great amount of intelligence to achieve this level of success.
Unrealistic Optimism
A common thread runs through the previous five cognitive biases. At-risk and problem gamblers overestimate the odds of a win and underestimate the odds of a loss.
“Going out and thinking they’re going to pay for their rent and instead losing the money that would be used toward their rent,” Dr. Alderson said.
Viewing the world through rose-colored glasses distorts bettors’ perspective and gives them unrealistic expectations about profitability. Professional sports bettors use sophisticated quantitative models to decide whether to place a bet and know exactly what their edge is when wagering on individual events,
A Safe Approach To Sports Betting
Professional gamblers approach gambling in the opposite way that at-risk and problem gamblers do. The pros are experts in their chosen games. But they’re also experts in bankroll management, willing to walk away from a bet that doesn’t have a positive expected value, and constantly tweaking their models to stay ahead of the market.
All gamblers should learn how to set budgets, track their performances, and recognize when they’re losing. At-risk gamblers can also set bet limits and time limits on sportsbook apps. They can even self-exclude and lock themselves out of their accounts for months at a time.
But when problem gambling becomes a gambling addiction, these self-imposed restrictions often aren’t enough. State and local governments must invest in problem gambling interventions. They must encourage enough gambling addiction counselors to become certified to treat gambling disorders. Friends, family, and loved ones must learn to recognize the signs of at-risk and problem gambling.
Everyone in the sports betting ecosystem is responsible for responsible gaming, and everyone has a part to play in keeping sports betting fun.
