Duke vs. NC State Predictions, Odds, Betting Preview

A memorable March for ACC hoops fans, particularly those in the Triangle, will continue with a South Region Region Championship on Sunday between 4-seed Duke and 11-seed NC State.

These teams, which two split two meetings in the regular season and are among four from the conference that reached the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament — with Clemson also reaching the Elite 8 — meet at 5:05 p.m. Eastern on Sunday on CBS with a Final Four spot on the line.

Here, we will break down the Duke vs NC State predictions and odds. Select the bet you like most at one of our top sportsbook apps and sign up to place your bet.

Duke (27-8, 15-5 ACC) followed up a strong regular season, tainted only by a 1-3 record in four total games against North Carolina and NC State, by blowing out 13-seed Vermont in its NCAA Tournament opener. The Blue Devils hit another gear with a romp in the second round, 93-55, over 12-seed James Madison. They survived a rock fight against 1-seed Houston on Friday night to reach the regional finals.

NC State (25-14, 9-11 ACC) has been on a tear the last three weeks. The Wolfpack reached the NCAA Tournament thanks to a stunning ACC Championship run that required five wins in five days. The Pack has hardly cooled off in the Big Dance, with wins over 6-seed Texas Tech, 11-seed Oakland, and 2-seed Marquette.

Different players throughout coach Kevin Keatts’ seven-man rotation have stepped up every night. This team showcased its depth again on Friday night, as it led Marquette by double-digits for most of the second half despite a quiet scoring night from big man DJ Burns.

Let’s get into the matchup and give our best Duke vs NC State betting pick.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

Duke’s roster features no shortage of NBA talent, and the Blue Devils are playing their best basketball at the right time. Late-season losses to UNC and NC State raised questions about this team’s toughness as it entered the NCAA Tournament, but Duke is now coming off three straight wins, including a 54-51 victory over Houston.

The Cougars, one of the most physical teams in the country, have dealt with injuries in recent weeks and suffered a massive blow when star guard Jamal Shead left Friday night’s game early due to injury. Nevertheless, Duke winning a Sweet 16 matchup over a 1-seed in a defensive battle showed what this team is capable of defensively.

Sophomores Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, and freshman Jared McCain have not played like underclassmen in the NCAA Tournament. Duke is deep enough to win without all three of those players having big nights offensively, as senior Jeremy Roach and sophomore Mark Mitchell also score in double figures.

Still, the key for State will be how it defends Filipowski, who leads a dangerous offense that can spread the floor with five shooters.

NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview

The oddsmakers continue to doubt NC State, and the Pack stifles one talented team after another. Marquette became the latest Wolfpack opponent to struggle from outside on Friday night, going just 4-for-31 from 3.

Star Marquette guards Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones shot better than 40 percent from 3-point range on the season, but combined to make just 4 of their 17 attempts against State. Dating back to the ACC Tournament semifinal win over Duke on March 14, the Wolfpack’s last six opponents have made 45 of their 175 3-point attempts (just under 26%)

Burns’ dominance inside has been the story for casual observers (and understandably so), but how this team is defending the 3-point line is the single biggest reason it’s still dancing. Part of that has been the opposition’s struggles on the clean looks the Pack has allowed. Whether Duke (a great shooting team that went 5-for-20 on 3-pointers against NCSU in the ACC Tournament) can knock down those shots will likely decide Sunday’s battle.

Duke is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games, including 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.
The total has gone OVER in 2 of Duke’s last 10 games, with the UNDER hitting in all three of Duke’s NCAAT games.

NCSU is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NCSU’s last 10 games.

Additional notes on NC State:

The Pack is 6-1 ATS in its last seven, beating the spread by at least 10 in six of those games. (In fact, NCSU has beaten the spread by at least 16 five times during this run).
The total has gone OVER in four of NCSU’s last five games.

During NC State’s eight-game winning streak, it’s been at least a five-point underdog four times, and it’s won three of those games by at least eight points. That makes the Pack worth a play on the spread in Sunday’s matchup against Duke.

The question, then, becomes whether State can pull off the upset against a Blue Devils squad it is facing for the fifth time in the last two years. This year, NCSU lost to Duke by 15 (79-64) on March 4 as a 6.5-point home underdog, and won 74-69 on March 14 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals as a 10.5-point underdog in Washington, DC.

These teams have split their four meetings in ’22-23 and ’23-24. Duke has had a hard time defending Burns, while the Pack has struggled at times to stop Filipowki and Co. Sunday’s game should come down to the final minutes, barring State running out of gas early in its ninth straight win-or-go-home contest.

Duke has the talent advantage, but it will be interesting to see which team feels the pressure late. The Wolfpack is seeking its first Final Four appearance since 1983, while the Blue Devils are looking to reach the Final Four in coach Jon Scheyer’s second season at the helm. Given State’s clutch play throughout this run, let’s go with the Pack — which is on the moneyline for anyone interested in a bold swing — in a thriller.

Prediction: NC State to advance

Duke vs NC State Betting Pick: NC State