Iowa vs. UConn Predictions, Odds: 2024 Women’s Final Four Betting Preview

The biggest star in women’s college basketball is one win away from her second consecutive trip to the national championship game.

Caitlin Clark and 1-seed Iowa meet 3-seed UConn on Friday night at 9 p.m. ET in a must-see matchup between 2021 Naismith Women’s College Player of the Year Paige Bueckers of Connecticut and Clark, who won last year’s award and is expected to take home this year’s as well.

Oddsmakers expect a tight game on Friday, with Iowa favored by just 2.5 to 3 points, depending on the sportsbook.

Here, we will break down the Iowa vs. UConn predictions and odds. Select the bet you like most at one of our top sportsbook apps and sign up to place your bet.

Read More: 2024 Women’s Final Four Odds | Best College Basketball Betting Sites | March Madness Odds

The biggest story of Friday’s matchup is the individual battle between Clark and Bueckers, but neither Iowa nor UConn is a one-woman team. Coach Geno Auriemma’s roster also features star senior forward Aaliyah Edwards (17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds per game), and the Huskies are one of the best shooting teams in the country.

Clark dominates the headlines, but she is not the Hawkeyes’ only dangerous shooter. Clark and fellow starters Gabbie Marshall and Kate Martin all shoot 36% or better on at least 3.5 3-point attempts per game. Iowa, which is No. 1 in the country with an offensive rating of 118.8, has scored at least 89 points in three of its four NCAA Tournament wins.

Let’s get into the matchup and give our best Iowa vs. UConn betting pick.

Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview

Clark has helped her sport take massive strides over the last two seasons, and expectations couldn’t have been higher for her going into Iowa’s Elite 8 matchup against LSU (which beat the Hawkeyes in last year’s national title game). In front of a record-breaking TV audience of more than 12 million (in a game that also set multiple sports betting records), Clark lived up to the hype, with 41 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds in Iowa’s 94-87 win over the reigning national champs.

Few teams task one player with covering Clark, for good reason, but Connecticut senior Nika Muhl could get that assignment on Friday night. Obviously, how well Muhl can contain Clark will go a long way in determining this matchup. It will also be interesting to see whether Clark’s teammates can pick up the slack if the Huskies manage to force someone besides Clark to beat them.

Connecticut Huskies Betting Preview

Auriemma and the Huskies have been a force since he took the helm in Storrs back in 1985. He has led UConn to 11 national titles, but the Huskies have not raised the trophy since 2016. UConn is a slight underdog against Clark and Iowa, but while Clark has the edge in star power, Bueckers could prove on Friday night that she can hang on the biggest stage.

Bueckers has battled injuries since winning National Player of the Year in 2021, but she enters the 2024 Final Four on a tear, with at least 24 points in all four of the Huskies’ wins in this tournament. She’s also averaging nine rebounds per game, and she’s dished out at least six assists in all but one of those games. Bueckers is a good 3-point shooter but takes about two-thirds of her shots from inside the arc. She and 6-foot-3 forward Edwards will test Iowa’s interior defense, as just one player in the Hawkeyes rotation (6-foot-2 sophomore Hannah Stuelke) is over 6 feet tall.

Iowa vs. Connecticut Predictions & Betting Pick

Clark and Iowa are hard to bet against, especially after what we saw this team do against LSU on Monday night. UConn, however, should be able to make life more difficult for the future WNBA star. An Auriemma-coached team led by an underrated star in Bueckers could absolutely pull off the upset, and it’s telling that oddsmakers see Iowa as just a slight favorite despite all the buzz around Clark and a potential Iowa vs. South Carolina national title matchup.

While the Huskies should be able to slow down the tempo (and/or Clark) enough to keep this score in the high 70s or low 80s, the Over at the current number still feels like the best play.

As much as doubting Clark feels risky, the Huskies are good value on the moneyline given everything Bueckers brings to the table, plus the advantage that Edwards (a likely top 10 pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft) will likely have in the paint against Stuelke.

Prediction: Connecticut to advance

Iowa vs. Connecticut Betting Picks: Over (162 at time of publishing); Connecticut moneyline (+126 at time of publishing)

How to Watch Iowa vs. Connecticut

• Date: Friday, April 5, 2024
• Tip-Off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse — Cleveland
• Where to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+