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Kalshi crossed $100 billion in lifetime trading volume on June 12, then logged its first two billion-dollar trading days that weekend, $1.22 billion on Saturday and $1.24 billion on Sunday. A week later, the prediction market platform topped $7.5 billion in weekly volume with a day still to go, smashing its own record.
The milestone was first flagged by analyst Dustin Gouker’s Event Horizon newsletter. Kalshi’s lifetime total now stands near $102.3 billion, roughly $9 billion ahead of rival Polymarket.
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Sports contracts now drive 85% of Kalshi’s volume
The breakout weekend coincided with a packed sports calendar:
- New York Knicks closing out the NBA Finals for their first title since 1973.
- The Carolina Hurricanes winning the Stanley Cup in Las Vegas.
- World Cup group-stage matches running across the globe.
- UFC’s first event on the White House South Lawn.
Kalshi’s sports volume jumped 52% week over week to $3.38 billion, while its parlay-style “Exotics” contracts topped $2 billion in a single week for the first time. Together, sports and parlays accounted for 85% of the platform’s weekly volume — a sharp shift from its early years, when politics and current events drove most activity.
Parlays alone now make up more than 20% of weekly sports trading, up from less than 1% when the product launched, according to a Legal Sports Report news report, mirroring the popularity parlays enjoy at traditional sportsbooks.
The following week, Kalshi’s pace barely slowed. Volume hit $7.5 billion with one day of trading still open, putting the platform on track for its first $8 billion week as World Cup group play continued, according to a DeFi Rate news report. Analysts say the tournament’s knockout rounds, which began June 29, could push single-match volume even higher, since elimination games tend to concentrate trading into one decisive outcome.
Trading volume vs. sports betting handle: The distinction matters
Industry observers caution against equating prediction market trading volume with sportsbook handle, according to a Legal Sports Report news report.
- Sportsbook handle measures money wagered on an outcome.
- Trading volume counts every trade, meaning a single contract can be bought, sold and rebought multiple times before resolving.
That distinction matters because a large volume figure can overstate how much economic activity is truly comparable to a sportsbook’s betting mix, the report noted. Even so, even with the growth, Kalshi’s sports business still trails the economics of major sportsbooks in pricing, hold and product depth.
Crypto perpetuals and IPO talk add new momentum
Kalshi added another revenue stream in late May with perpetual futures, or “perps,” allowing traders to speculate on crypto prices with up to 6x leverage, according to a report from the social platform X. The product is the first new offering approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in more than a decade and surpassed $100 million in volume within its first day.
The platform has also reportedly held early talks with investment banks about a possible IPO after crossing $2 billion in annualized revenue, according to a DeFi Rate news report. Any listing remains years away, with a target window of late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi’s valuation has climbed quickly, from $2 billion in June 2025 to $22 billion this spring after a $1 billion funding round.
Regulatory fights continue over event contracts
Growth hasn’t quieted legal scrutiny. Kalshi remains locked in court battles with several states, including a recent suit in New Mexico, over whether its sports contracts amount to unregulated gambling. The CFTC has sided with Kalshi in federal filings, arguing it holds exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, the report said.
Internationally, Kalshi is expanding through partnerships, including a deal with Canada’s Wealthsimple to offer markets tied to economic data and climate, according to a report from The Currency Analytics. Meanwhile, Spain, India and Indonesia have moved to restrict access to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, though enforcement has proven difficult as users turn to VPNs and cryptocurrency payments, the report said.
Prediction markets’ next test: World Cup knockout rounds
With the World Cup knockout rounds underway and a possible IPO on the horizon, Kalshi’s volume run shows little sign of slowing. Whether prediction markets ultimately settle in as a mainstream financial product, a sports betting alternative or something else entirely remains unresolved.
What’s no longer in question is that the industry has outgrown its niche origins and is now drawing sustained attention from regulators, sportsbooks and Wall Street alike.
