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How sweet it is to love a dog. Especially one who pays you. Sweet 16 bettors lined up early behind underdogs Miami and Princeton at DraftKings before March Madness competition resumes Thursday.
Princeton, playing in its first Sweet 16 since 1967, garnered 78% of the spread handle at a bulging +10 against Creighton. Miami hauled in 78% of the spread handle at +7 against Houston, which ended the parity-filled NCAA campaign as the No 1 team in the nation.
‘Sharp Bettors Will Look for Some Sweet 16 Underdogs’
“Even though the biggest money will come in late, I think the sharp bettors will look for some underdogs early on,” Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today. “There is still a 7 out there (Miami) and a 10 (Princeton). The dogs are going to get some action in the next round.”
“By the time we reach the weekend, when you will start by being down to eight teams, the spreads are going to be smaller, and I think you will see a lot played on the favorites.” One game with significant give-and-take is Kansas State vs Michigan State. “We opened up at Kansas State -1,” Avello recalled, “and the early money came in strong on Michigan State.
We moved that number all the way to Michigan State -2, a three-point swing That’s a darn good for a game so early like that.” Key fundamentals indicate this might be a betting pendulum, with opportunity gracing either side. After the three-point move, Kansas State started to get the money and had worked up to a spread-betting advantage of 57-43% on the handle by early Tuesday night. If the percentage goes much higher, that line could slide back toward Michigan State -1.
This may become a wait-and-pounce game, with bettors jumping in when the line hits their desired target. Elsewhere, gamblers anticipate points from both UConn and Arkansas. A definitive 79% of the early totals handle went on the Over 139.5, while 75% of the initial spread handle went to UConn at -3.5. Report from Vegas: Expert Sweet 16 picks
Big March Madness Bets Anticipated at DraftKings
“All the games are positioned well regarding times,” Avello said of a format in which there will be four games Thursday and Friday, two each on Saturday and Sunday. “With fewer games, the action is going to go up. I expect huge numbers on each and every game.
We are going to see more six-figure wagers in each contest, and I think you will see a few that are more than $500,000. “I am pretty confident we will see some seven-figure plays either in this round or the final game.” Avello said the action has been terrific for the books and for the players. Gamblers had a good day on Friday, riding FDU at +2000 in-game moneyline as the Knights shocked No. 1 seeded Purdue.
The book was able to spread hits it took on this one across the enormous handle of the tournament. It also profited from the position of other games. Avello said Tennessee’s 65-52 triumph over Duke was the highest-bet game of the week and the book’s best win. Duke had become the darlings of the bettors on the moneyline and spread, favored by anywhere from 2 to 3.5 points.
March Madness Futures Betting Trends at DraftKings
While gamblers back significant dogs in the Sweet 16, futures bettors support the chalk to walk the walk. DraftKings bettors gave the highest endorsement to Houston, +360, with 18 percent of the handle and 8% of the tickets to win the championship.
Alabama, the favorite at +340, notched 4% of the handle and 8% of the tickets. UCLA is the highest supported Sweet 16 dog with 9% of the handle and 6% of the bets at +800. Texas earns 5% of the handle and tickets at +1000. U Conn garners 5% of the handle and tickets at +900.
And Gonzaga, perhaps operating under the radar with its West Coast starts, garners 4% of the handle and tickets at +1200. The upcoming Gonzaga-UCLA contest, a barnburner with UCLA -2, will torch the high-valued futures of one of these teams.
UCLA notched 68% of the early DraftKings betting handle at -2 for this game.
Futures: March Madness odds
Bet March Madness at DraftKings Sportsbook
March Madness Betting Highlights
What a ride. By the end of this weekend, believe it or not, the Final Four will be determined. That’s the magic and mystery of March Madness.
It arrives in gangbusters, providing an epic opening weekend filled with Cinderella betting stories. There’s a follow-up weekend, and then it’s down to two games. The curtain-raising act was impressive last weekend. New Jersey sported two significant Cinderella stories with Princeton and FDU.
Although these teams could not be wagered on inside the Garden State, per New Jersey sports betting regulations, Avello said they were bet heavily throughout the nation. And the New Jersey gamblers who wanted to back them probably put that money into other games, Avello noted.
Princeton knocked off Missouri and, as a 15 seed, reached its first Sweet 16 in an NCAA Tournament field of 64 or more. Its New Jersey counterpart, FDU, fired another rocket for dog bettors. In toppling Purdue, it became the second No. 16 seed ever to topple a No. 1, joining University of Baltimore Maryland County, which beat Virginia in 2018. No 16 seeds were 1-150 against the No. 1 seeds entering Friday. And that’s the beauty of the March Madness mega-upset.
Related: Biggest Upsets in March Madness History
Every team can be toppled. No team is immune to adversity. “If you are somehow going to get through six games, you won’t do it without at least one scare,” Avello noted about the single-elimination journey needed to capture the championship. “You may need a buzzer-beater in there.
You may have a Houdini escape in a game for which you are down four with 30 seconds to go and you pull it out. “Nobody just rolls through this tournament. And you have no idea going into it which team is going to be the one that makes it all work.” The FDU saga had a ripple effect Tuesday. Its coach Tobin Anderson notched a professional parlay. He was named to replace Rick Pitino at Iona in a five-year deal, according to ESPN.
Bet MGM Sweet 16 Betting Trends
Here is a breakdown of gambling activity in popular categories from BetMGM Sportsbook. Most bet games (tickets) 1. Michigan State vs Kansas State 2. Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee 3. Arkansas vs Connecticut Most bet teams (tickets) 1. Kansas State +1.5 2. UConn -3.5 3. Tennessee -5.5 Most bet teams (handle) 1. UConn -3.5 2. Kansas State +1.5 3. Tennessee -5.5 Most bet Overs (tickets) 1. Michigan State vs Kansas State 137.5 2. Arkansas vs UConn 140.5 3. San Diego State vs Alabama 136.5 Most bet Unders (tickets) 1. Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee 131.5 2. Xavier vs Texas 148.5 3. Gonzaga vs UCLA 145.5 In smaller volumes, gamblers have lined up behind Miami and Princeton.
- Miami commands 67% of the handle and 63% of the bets at +7.5 vs. Houston.
- Princeton sports 66% of the spread bets and 63% of the spread handle at +9.5 against Creighton. The drop from -10 to -9.5 will open the door for more Creighton bettors, however.
PointsBet Gamblers Make Timely Hits
Highlights from PointsBet Sportsbook include the slick minority — 15% tickets and 23% handle — backing the Over 152.5 when Xavier topped Pittsburgh 84-73, totaling 157.
The minority ruled again when only 11% of the handle and 17% of the tickets went on Gonzaga-TCU to go Over 156. Gonzaga’s 84-81 triumph easily satisfied the Over. UConn, meanwhile, cashed in for the majority. Bettors jumped all over UConn -3.5 over St. Mary’s with 89% of the spread handle and 77% of the spread tickets hitting home. The Huskies romped 70-55.
