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Welcome back to another great day of baseball. Today, we have a terrific 10-game slate to watch, enjoy, and place a few bets on. If you need help finding a winner on the diamond, we have got you covered, as we will break down our two favorite MLB player props.
The season is still fresh, so we recommend you slowly ease into betting on baseball. As we get deeper into the season, we will have a larger data set to back our picks. For now, however, we will stick with two prop bets, both taking place on the evening slate.
MLB Player Props: March 29
Jarren Duran Over
The Red Sox picked up the Opening Day win over the Mariners last night. They jumped on Luis Castillo early, chasing him after five innings and four earned runs. Tonight, the Sox have another righty on the bump in George Kirby.
In just two seasons in Seattle, Kirby has established himself as an essential piece in the rotation. The problem is that his strikeout and whiff rate decreased last season, and he is facing a Red Sox lineup that ranks in the top half in strikeouts and has hit right-handed pitching reasonably well. This is a spot where Boston’s left-handed hitters could have early success, especially Jarren Duran.
Last season was Duran’s first real action as a big-league player, and he did a really solid job. Duran slashed .295/.346/.482 with a 120 wRC+ in 2023. Strikeouts and whiffs are still a concern for Duran. Luckily, he is facing a starter who does not have the best swing-and-miss stuff, which means he will have plenty of chances to put the ball in play.
Duran also showcased a little power towards the end of 2023, with a .536 SLG and .232 ISO from July 1 to the end of the season. With his speed and how he swung the bat to end 2023 and all of spring, Duran could be in for a big night, and his total bases prop is well worth a look.
Logan Allen Over
It should come as no surprise that the Cleveland Guardians have a stable of young and effective pitchers on the roster. They have long-developed quality starting pitchers who are better than anyone in the league, and tonight’s starter is one of the next candidates.
Cleveland will send lefty Logan Allen out for his first start of the season. In his rookie season, Allen was solid but had trouble with his command, registering a 3.45 BB/9. His stuff will not blow you away, but Allen has a strong curveball, and his swinging strike rate sits at 10.8%, slightly below league average but encouraging, given his style.
Although his xERA and xFIP are higher than his actual numbers, Allen had seven quality starts in 24 appearances last year and has one of the easier matchups in baseball tonight. Oakland was entirely overpowered by Shane Bieber last night, striking out 11 times in his six-innings pitched. Tonight, the Oakland hitters will see a different speed (literally).
The Athletics had a 24.5% K-rate against lefties last season, and the 2024 lineup is not much better. Given his solid spring and game opponent, Allen’s strikeout prop is a little too low. Take the Over here. \
