MLB Player Props: Best Picks for Opening Day – March 28

The 2024 baseball season is finally here. After a long winter, it is finally time to enjoy and place some bets on regular-season action. Here, we will break down our three favorite Opening Day MLB player props.

Baseball season has just begun, so we do not have a large sample size of data on which to base our props. Our advice for betting on opening day and the first week of action is not to go too crazy. Pick a few spots per day to target, and let the winners come to you.

Anyway, let’s get into our best Opening Day prop bets.

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MLB Player Props – March 28

Jonathan India – Over Runs

The Cincinnati Reds are coming off one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory. Although they just missed out on the postseason, a stable of rookies made their debuts last season and performed at a high enough level to make this a competitive ballclub.

Once again, the Reds should be able to score some runs this season, especially on Opening Day. Cincinnati will take on the Washington Nationals to begin the 2024 season. While the Nats made significant strides as a club late last year, pitching is still a concern, especially with opening-day starter Josiah Gray.

Although Gray registered his career-best ERA (3.91) last season, he also carried a 5.03 xERA and 5.12 xFIP. This spring was not much kinder, as he allowed 12 earned runs in just 16.1 IP. The Reds’ lineup can do some early damage against Gray, and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year, Jonathan India is a prime candidate.

Injuries derailed India’s 2023 season, but he could still hit for power and score a few runs. He has not quite replicated his 2021 season to this date, but India improved his Barrel% to 7.7% last year, and his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all point towards positive regression.

India also swung a hot bat in spring training, with a .393/.485/.607 slash and a 196 wRC+. With his current value and how Cincinnati’s lineup projects against Washington, India should have plenty of opportunities to plate a run.

Mitch Keller – Under Outs Recorded

Although his ERA went up to 4.21 last season, Mitch Keller struck out more batters and registered his career’s lowest BB/9 (2.55). The problem is that his barrel rate shot up to 8.6%, and he had a swinging strike rate of only 9.7%.

His first challenge of the season is not too tough with the Miami Marlins, but don’t expect a dominant Opening Day outing from the Buccos’ ace. His fastball velocity dipped this spring to around 90-92 mph, which has forced him to rely more on his sinker and cutter, which are much less effective at getting whiffs.

Keller’s alarming decrease in velo could be multiple things, but it most likely is him getting back into a rhythm. However, this is the perfect time to fade the Pirates starter, especially on the season’s first game. Opening Day starters tend to get a quicker hook, and if Miami can put the ball in play, that should limit the number of innings Keller pitches today.

The Marlins do not possess the most challenging offense, but a top-of-the-lineup that features Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm, Jake Burger, and Tim Anderson has enough upside to make Keller work for every out. 

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MLB Player Props: Best Opening Day Home Run Pick

Gleyber Torres ()

It will be a great day for baseball in Houston, with 70-degree weather and an open roof at Minute Maid Park. This should make for some great hitting weather. So, for our first MLB ATHR prop of the season, we will ride with Gleyber Torres. 

Although his career has not panned out as many had hoped, Torres had a strong 2023 campaign. He finished with a slash of .273,347/.453, a 123 wRC+, and 3.2 fWAR. He also increased his walk rate and significantly reduced swings and misses. 

While his power number also dropped, his xSLG of .478 and xwOBA of .362 show some room for positive regression in 2024. Combine that with a great spring, where Torres registered three home runs and an 182 wRC+, and this could very well be a bounce-back season for the Yankees’ second baseman. 

Going up against Framber Valdez and a solid Astros bullpen is worrisome, but Valdez had a tough spring and gave up a career-high 7.9% barrel rate last season. At this price, Torres is well worth a chance to hit a home run on opening day. 

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