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The 2026 NFL season is almost here, and Week 1 brings 16 games to kick things off. Our NFL Week 1 score predictions look at each matchup and give a projected final score.
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From the opening game between the Patriots and Seahawks to the Monday night meeting between the Broncos and Chiefs. These predictions consider team form, key players, matchups, and the latest NFL news before kickoff.
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We have Seattle winning the season opener 24-20, Jacksonville covering comfortably at home, and the Buccaneers and Bengals producing the highest-scoring game of the week. The Chargers are the only team we project to win by double digits.
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Below are exact score predictions for every NFL Week 1 game, with the reasoning behind each projected final. Week 1 opens Wednesday 9 September and runs through Monday night.
Projections are editorial analysis based on market numbers checked ahead of publication. Lines move, and late injury news moves them hardest in opening week.
Week 1 Score Predictions: Every Game
| Matchup | Projected Final | Market Line |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Seahawks | Seattle 24-20 | SEA -3.5, O/U 44.5 |
| 49ers vs Rams (Melbourne) | Rams 27-23 | LAR -2.5, O/U 48.5 |
| Bears at Panthers | Bears 23-20 | CHI -2.5, O/U 44.5 |
| Ravens at Colts | Ravens 27-21 | BAL -3.5 |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | Bengals 30-27 | CIN -3.5, O/U 50.5 |
| Falcons at Steelers | Confirm line first | [LIVE] |
| Jets at Titans | Confirm line first | [LIVE] |
| Saints at Lions | Confirm line first | [LIVE] |
| Bills at Texans | Bills 22-20 | BUF -1.5 |
| Browns at Jaguars | Jaguars 24-13 | JAX -7.5, O/U 40.5 |
| Cardinals at Chargers | Chargers 30-17 | LAC -11.5 |
| Packers at Vikings | Vikings 23-21 | MIN -1.5 |
| Dolphins at Raiders | Confirm line first | [LIVE] |
| Commanders at Eagles | Eagles 27-20 | PHI -4.5, O/U 46.5 |
| Cowboys at Giants | Confirm line first | [LIVE] |
| Broncos at Chiefs | Confirm line first | [LIVE] |
The Reasoning Behind the Key Projections
Seahawks 24-20 over Patriots
A four-point Seattle win lands just inside the 3.5 spread and comfortably under the 44.5 total, which is where we think this game lives.
Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, but the market has moved toward the Patriots since, dropping from -4 in May to -3.5 now. Openers between two well-matched teams tend to be tighter and lower scoring than the same matchup in midseason. Defences are ahead of offences in September.
Rams 27-23 over 49ers
A neutral site 10,000 miles from either home stadium removes home field entirely, which is why the Super Bowl favourite is only laying 2.5.
We project a competitive divisional game that lands slightly over the 48.5 total. The Rams have the better roster on paper, but the travel and the neutral venue keep the margin inside a touchdown.
Bengals 30-27 over Buccaneers
The only Week 1 game priced above 50, and we agree with the market. A 57-point projected total clears 50.5, and a three-point Cincinnati win lands right on the spread.
This is the shootout of the slate. If you want points in Week 1, this is where the market says they are.
Jaguars 24-13 over Browns
Our most confident projection. Jacksonville is laying 7.5 at home in a game with the week’s lowest total at 40.5.
A 37-point projected total stays under, and an 11-point margin clears the spread. Low-scoring games favour the better team in a specific way: fewer possessions means fewer chances for an underdog to catch up through variance.
Chargers 30-17 over Cardinals
The only double-digit projected margin of Week 1, matching the only double-digit spread.
Worth flagging honestly: this is also the projection we hold with the least confidence. Double-digit spreads in opening week are built on projection rather than game action, and Week 1 games are frequently sloppier and closer than the talent gap suggests. A 13-point win covers, but a 10-point win does not.
Vikings 23-21 over Packers
A two-point margin for a sport betting on a 1.5-point line, which is about as close as a projection gets to admitting uncertainty.
This line flipped during the summer. Green Bay opened as the 1.5-point favourite and the market moved to Minnesota. When the market changes direction rather than degree, the honest projection is a near coin flip decided by home field.
Eagles 27-20 over Commanders
A seven-point margin covers the 4.5 spread, and 47 combined points sits just above the 46.5 total.
Divisional openers tend to stay closer than talent gaps suggest, but Philadelphia at home with a full week of preparation should have enough. Note that a seven-point margin sits exactly on a key number, so the cover is closer than the score implies.
What Week 1 Score Predictions Are Actually Worth
Less than in any other week, and it is worth being straight about that.
Nobody has competitive game action to work from. Preseason tells you very little because starters barely play. Every projection here, and every projection anywhere this week, is built on last season’s data, roster changes and market pricing.
Three practical points follow from that:
- Exact scores are almost never exact. The value is in the direction and the margin, not the digits. If we project 24-20 and the game finishes 27-24, the read was correct.
- Totals are more reliable than sides in Week 1. Scoring environment is easier to project than which team wins a close game.
- Injury news beats analysis. A Friday inactive report will tell you more than any projection published on Thursday.
Week 1 Scoring Trends to Know
- Week 1 totals usually finish lower than the season average. Offensive timing lags defensive effort in September, and coaches call openers conservatively.
- Nine of 16 Week 1 games opened at a field goal or less. Expect close finals across most of the slate.
- Three and seven are the key margins. The most common NFL game final margins cluster there, which is why so many spreads sit at 3.5 or 7.5.
- Only one double-digit favourite. The market is telling you Week 1 is tight.
For the full board of spreads, totals and moneylines, see our Week 1 odds page. For picks against the spread rather than projected finals, see our Week 1 predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the highest-scoring game projected in Week 1?
Buccaneers at Bengals, which we project at 30-27 for 57 combined points. It is the only Week 1 game with a total above 50, set at 50.5.
What is the lowest-scoring game projected in Week 1?
Browns at Jaguars, projected 24-13 for 37 combined points. The market has this at 40.5, the lowest total of the week.
Who wins the 2026 NFL season opener?
We project Seattle 24-20 over New England, a four-point win that lands just inside the 3.5 spread and under the 44.5 total.
Which team is projected to win by the most in Week 1?
The Los Angeles Chargers, projected 30-17 over Arizona. It is the only double-digit margin we project, matching the only double-digit spread on the board.
How accurate are NFL Week 1 score predictions?
Exact scores are rarely exact in any week, and Week 1 is the hardest of all because there is no competitive game action to work from. The useful signal is the projected margin and scoring environment rather than the specific digits. Check our how to bet page for more detail.
Which Week 1 games are projected closest?
Vikings over Packers at 23-21 and Bills over Texans at 22-20. Both sit on spreads of 1.5 points, and both are effectively coin flips.
Score predictions are editorial analysis and opinion, not guarantees of any outcome. Odds and totals referenced were accurate at the time of writing and are subject to change. You must be 21 or older and physically located in a state where sports betting is legal to place a wager. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential support.
